NHL

Monday: 3-4-1 -1.93

Despite the recent struggles, everything looks pretty good in terms of the quality of the plays. I'm just not catching any breaks. That will change.


YTD:  18-20-2 -4.81 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -10.6%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.23 units
Breakeven price: -112
Breakeven winning %: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 47.4%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.9
Goals allowed per game: 2.8
Shots on goal per game: 31.9
Shots allowed per game: 26.4

Shooting percentage for: 9.1%
Shooting percentage against: 10.4%

Overtime results: 5-7 -3.93 (0-3 ot/5-4 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 14
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 5

Comments: I've had 40 wagers involving 41 teams (1 two-team parlay). 32 of those 41 teams had as many or more shots than their opponent (78%) and has led to a +5.5 SOG per game advantage. Although shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather be on the team with more. My shooting percentage differential is killing me, however, although I've gotten it down to -1.3%. OT games, which I expect to be 50/50, have not gone well at 5-7.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Vancouver	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	9.6	4.6	1.7	0.1	7.2
Ottawa	0.2	0.5	0.1	1.1	2.4	4.0	0.1	0.4	-9.2
Edmonton	0.8	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.1	1.2	2.8	1.7	-5.2
Nashville	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	4.4	1.3	1.4	0.1	-1.9

Tonight's play

Vancouver -130

Just by blindly playing the team with the better number in blue above in the matchups would have yielded a 94-78 +0.00 record in all games with no restrictions since Nov 2nd (when my plays started). Those with wider margins of 7.12+ for road teams (up to -180) and 10.53+ for home teams (up to -260) have gone 47-25 +20.66. I'm not suggesting playing these but just something to watch.

NHL

Monday: 2-2 +0.02

Thanksgiving Eve and the most action of the season.


YTD:  15-16-1 -2.88 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -7.8%
Average win: 1.12 units
Average loss: 1.23 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.3%
Current YTD winning %: 48.4%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.8
Goals allowed per game: 2.7
Shots on goal per game: 31.8
Shots allowed per game: 25.7

Shooting percentage for: 8.9%
Shooting percentage against: 10.6%

Overtime results: 3-6 -4.93 (0-3 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 13
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 4

Comments: I've had 32 wagers involving 33 teams (1 two-team parlay). 26 of those 33 teams outshot their opponent (79%). While shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather have more than the opponent for obvious reasons. My SOG advantage of +6.1 per game is very good but my shooting percentage differential is killing me, although I've gotten it down to -1.7%. OT games, which I expect to be 50/50, have not gone well at 3-6.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Winnipeg	0.1	0.1	0.7	1.6	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.7	3.5
NY Islanders	0.9	1.0	0.9	1.7	3.1	0.2	4.0	3.4	-13.4
Ottawa	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	4.2	5.2	0.3	0.4	-9.8
Washington	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.5	4.0	4.6	3.1	1.9	-1.8
Nashville	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	4.0	1.1	0.4	1.0	-4.9
Columbus	0.7	0.5	2.3	2.2	4.8	1.1	0.8	2.0	0.3
Montreal	0.4	0.5	0.1	2.1	1.0	0.7	1.2	1.6	9.8
Buffalo	1.3	0.8	0.8	0.1	9.6	6.3	1.7	0.9	-11.4
Carolina	0.3	0.2	4.5	0.2	4.0	2.2	0.3	1.3	0.4
New Jersey	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.5	1.1	4.8	2.7	2.2	15.8
Toronto	0.7	0.0	0.9	1.1	12.5	7.7	0.6	1.9	-7.1
Pittsburgh	0.5	0.3	2.4	0.4	4.0	2.8	0.5	0.1	3.4
NY Rangers	0.5	0.5	2.5	1.9	5.4	0.2	0.5	1.8	9.2
Florida	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.8	-3.1
Philadelphia	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.6	1.5	0.1	1.3	2.4
Tampa Bay	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	1.1	1.3	2.1	1.5	2.1
Boston	0.5	0.5	0.1	1.0	1.9	1.2	2.2	2.0	2.3
Detroit	0.5	0.3	0.2	1.3	1.1	1.2	1.9	1.5	-5.1
Phoenix	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4	2.7	4.4	1.7	0.7	-4.9
Minnesota	0.5	0.3	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.1	2.4	0.5	5.3
St. Louis	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.0	4.9	5.1	1.6	0.2	6.7
Colorado	0.5	0.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.9	1.6	0.7	-1.7
Chicago	0.7	0.2	0.2	1.3	6.8	2.8	0.0	1.5	-2.9
Calgary	1.1	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.5	1.2	3.7	3.3	-7.0
Los Angeles	0.7	0.7	1.3	0.8	4.3	5.0	1.7	1.3	12.0
San Jose	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.2	3.7	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.3

Tonight's plays

Washington -135
Montreal -1 +102
New Jersey -135
Pittsburgh -1 -124
NY Rangers -135
Minnesota -125
St. Louis -120
Los Angeles +145

NHL

Saturday: 1-2 -1.92

Tough 1-0 loss in OT by the Kings Saturday night at -160. Now 3-6 in overtime games on the season.


YTD:  13-14-1 -2.90 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -9.0%
Average win: 1.11 units
Average loss: 1.24 units
Breakeven price: -112
Breakeven winning %: 52.7%
Current YTD winning %: 48.1%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.9
Goals allowed per game: 2.8
Shots on goal per game: 32.2
Shots allowed per game: 25.8

Shooting percentage for: 9.0%
Shooting percentage against: 10.8%

Overtime results: 3-6 -4.93 (0-3 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 11
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 3

Comments: The shots on goal results combined with shooting percentage are a good indicator of the health of a team and how well they are playing. I've had 28 wagers involving 29 teams (1 two-team parlay). 23 of those 29 teams outshot their opponent (79%), which is all I can ask for. While shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather have more than the opponent for obvious reasons. My SOG advantage of +6.4 per game is very good but I've been hurt by giving up a 10.8% shooting percentage (-1.8% worse than my SP); which means my goalies only have an .892 save percentage which has diminished my shot advantage. If my OT games were 50/50 and even on the money line (which is the expectation over the long haul), I would have +2.03 units of profit despite getting outshot by almost a full 2%.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Pittsburgh	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.2	4.2	3.0	1.0	0.5	6.2
Boston	0.4	0.6	0.6	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7	2.1	3.0
Columbus	1.2	0.8	2.1	2.2	3.2	0.7	3.2	2.8	-2.8
Toronto	0.0	0.5	1.0	1.4	12.5	8.8	2.9	3.2	-4.6
Winnipeg	0.1	0.1	0.8	1.7	2.5	0.9	1.1	0.5	3.5
New Jersey	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.6	1.1	5.2	3.7	2.5	17.2
Philadelphia	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	1.9	1.9	1.1	1.6	1.9
Florida	0.6	0.3	1.9	0.9	0.5	2.0	2.2	1.8	-4.0
NY Rangers	0.8	0.8	2.8	1.9	5.7	0.2	1.6	3.0	12.0
Tampa Bay	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	1.1	1.0	0.8	1.0	1.0
Phoenix	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.0	2.7	4.4	2.2	0.4	-5.0
Nashville	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	3.3	0.6	0.8	2.0	-6.6
Minnesota	0.3	0.1	1.6	1.2	2.0	1.8	1.6	0.1	4.6
St. Louis	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	4.5	4.3	1.8	0.1	5.8
Chicago	0.5	0.5	0.8	0.9	6.1	1.7	0.7	2.2	-5.7
Edmonton	0.6	0.2	1.9	1.8	1.8	0.3	1.5	0.7	-5.9
Los Angeles	0.5	0.7	1.4	0.9	5.2	4.9	0.5	1.2	11.8
Vancouver	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.4	8.6	4.9	0.6	0.7	10.0

Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -125
Phoenix -115
St. Louis -1 +114
Chicago -1 +128