NFL

Last week:  0-1


Documented forum record

Career:  322-252-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-1-0  (50%)  -$75


Breakdown:

ROI:  -7.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-1-0  (50%).....average price: -115


WEEK 4

Jacksonville +13 -118  ($590 to win $500)

An ugly duckling that is in a bounce back situation of 417-319-16 ats (57%, +66.1 units, 3.61 z-score, L5Y 55%, LY 68%, TY 75% (3-1)). Two of my dozen or so strong situational angles agree on this play. When that happens, the record is 67-38-3 ats (64%). Chargers are playing well right now and a 3-1 record is all but a certainty (could easily be 4-0) so human nature could make this feel a little too easy for San Diego.


Tampa Bay +7.5 -115  ($575 to win $500)

One of my strongest bounce back situations is on the Bucs at Pittsburgh. This situation is 58-14-3 ats since 1986 (81%, +42.6 units, 5.19 z-score, L5Y 81%, LY 50% (1-1), TY 0-0). Bucs got embarrassed on TNF last week and Steelers cruised on SNF. This won't be easy but looking for Tampa to play a lot better. Hopefully the extra few days of rest helped them straighten some things out.


Kansas City +??

Going to wait on the Chiefs line till closer to kickoff. Three of my situational angles agree. When that happens, the record is 17-3-1 ats (85%). Brady and the Pats are not yet clicking on offense and Brady's numbers have declined steadily the past several seasons. Beware the home dog on Monday Night Football.


10.5pt. teaser, ties reduce, +124  ($500 to win $620)

Chicago +11.5  (last Monday, WON)
Indianapolis +3
Tampa Bay +19.5
Kansas City +??

Keeping an open spot for the Chiefs until Monday. Right now the line is at +13.5.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: bye
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 12-4.....Next: W

NFL

Last week:  1-0


Documented forum record

Career:  322-251-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-0-0  (100%)  +$500


Breakdown:

ROI:  +87.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-0-0  (100%).....average price: -115


WEEK 3

10pt. teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans -0.5
San Francisco +7
Indianapolis +3

Really do not like this Week 3 card at all. I have conflicting data and situational angles on each side of quite a few matchups. Minnesota was my strong preliminary play but I'm not going against a hungry Saints team in their home opener. In this case, it's best to pass and wait for opportunities of greater value next week. In the meantime, I'll post up my second teaser of the season.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Projected record: 13-3.....Next: L
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Projected record: 12-4.....Next: W
 

NFL

Documented forum record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Week 1: 0-0


Week 2:

10 pt teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans +3.5
New England +7
Indianapolis +7

I went 5-2 in teasers last year as you can see in my breakdown in blue above. Never played them much before that but I'll have more of them this year. They can be really strong wagers if you're smart about them and they only cost a few cents more than a standard Vegas wager. I put this one in on Friday before the Peterson news but I would also back the Patriots at the current line (+4.5) if necessary.

Andrew Luck has never lost back to back games in his young career (10-0 su, 9-0-1 ats). Since 2003, Tom Brady is 27-9 ats (75%) after a loss, 17-3 on the road (85%) and 9-1 as a road favorite of less than 7. Drew Brees is 21-8 ats (72%) following a loss since 2008, only 6-5 on the road (lost 3 straight) but 3-1 as a road favorite.

No ATS sides qualified in Week 2.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)
 

NFL

Documented Talksport/Scoresline record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Preseason: 0-0


Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

I don't play Week 1 in the NFL but I have two season win total props to get things started. I am a New England native and have lived in Denver for the last 18 years so I know these two teams well. Both won 13 and 12 games respectively last season and both improved their teams by bolstering their defenses. Denver's offense is coming off a record-setting 2013 season. They will be without Welker for four games but add Sanders to offset that. Brady is in much better shape with his receiving corps than he was this time a year ago. Both teams are also plenty hungry with aging quarterbacks that force them to be in "win now" mode. Five units on each.

As far as the regular season plays, I will start in Week 2. I started posting late last year, thus only 38 games on record. I expect closer to 50 plays or so this season.