Thursday, February 6, 2014

NBA

Friday: 3-2 +0.87

Had a winning day in NBA last Friday. Nothing tonight (only two games on the card) but I wanted to update the numbers and I'll resume tomorrow with some more detailed posts.


Year to date:  10-13  (44%)  -3.79 units  (@ 1 unit each)

Average money line:  -106


Nothing tonight
NHL

Saturday: 2-0 +2.00


YTD:  -0.43 units (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

ROI: -0.2 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.06 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -111
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 52.4%

Favorites: 56-55 -12.83  (PL favs = 22-16 +2.13)
Underdogs: 26-20 +11.40  (PL dogs = 8-4 +4.90)
Even money: 6-5 +1.00  (PL even = 4-0 +4.00)

SU record: 100-74
Pythagorean record: 100-74  (based on goal differential below)

Goals scored per game: 2.98  (would be 6th in NHL)
Goals allowed per game: 2.59  (goal diff. would be 7th in NHL)
Shots on goal per game: 31.8
Shots allowed per game: 27.8

Shooting percentage for: 9.3%
Shooting percentage against: 9.3%

Overtime games: 20-18 (11-8 ot/9-10 so)


Tonight's matchups showing how the teams compare in eight statistical evaluations which factor in strength of schedule (red numbers are negative) and also an overall number in blue at the end:

Calgary 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 2.7 1.1 1.4 -0.3
NY Islanders 0.1 0.2 1.6 2.1 4.5 1.1 1.5 1.0 -5.9
Winnipeg 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.8 2.3 0.1 5.5
Washington 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 1.3 -4.7
Edmonton 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 8.3 6.2 1.1 0.4 -11.5
NY Rangers 1.4 1.0 2.3 0.7 4.3 0.0 3.4 3.2 11.2
Colorado 0.5 0.1 1.1 1.9 6.0 4.6 3.5 0.8 -8.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.5 -2.0
Vancouver 1.3 0.4 1.6 1.0 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.2 -6.5
Montreal 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.3 1.2 0.6 5.1
Detroit 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 2.1 0.6 -5.0
Florida 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.3 1.0 0.4 -3.3
Toronto 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 8.2 5.6 3.5 0.1 -9.8
Tampa Bay 0.4 0.1 3.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.8 -2.0
Buffalo 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.0 6.6 3.4 1.0 1.2 -4.8
Ottawa 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.9 5.1 4.1 1.9 0.9 -6.7
Boston 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.5 4.3 0.4 1.6 0.6 1.3
St. Louis 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.7 3.4 2.8 1.4 0.5
Nashville 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 -4.8
Minnesota 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.8 4.8 0.3 2.6 1.0 4.2
Columbus 1.1 0.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.1 0.4 3.5
Los Angeles 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 5.0 5.0 4.5 1.2 7.3


Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -0.5 -130 (reg)
Winnipeg +111
Montreal -149
Boston +128
Minnesota -137