NFL

Last week:  2-1

Documented forum record

Career:  330-259-19  (56.0%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  9-8-0  (53%)  +$250.....ROI:  +2.6%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  320-254-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  10-5-0  (67%).....avg line:  -108


WEEK 9

Carolina +3 +115  ($500 to win $575)  LOST Thursday

NY Jets +9 -108  ($540 to win $500)

Michael Vick played in relief of Geno Smith a few weeks back and looked terrible. Vick admitted he was not prepared to play in that game and swore "that will never happen again". Well, here's his shot at redemption. I don't expect Vick to play great but hopefully just not turn the ball over as much as Smith did. I think the Jets match up well with Kansas City also, given that they have two coordinators that have ties to the Chiefs' coaching staff. This is a strong bounce back situation for New York as well with three of my situational angles supporting such an occurrence. When three agree in the past, my record has been 19-4-1 ats (83%).

13-pt teaser, ties reduce, +110  ($500 to win $550)

San Diego +15.5
Cincinnati +2
Denver +10
Seattle -2
Indianapolis +10

The nice thing about teasers is you can adjust the number of teams and number of points to make the teaser pay out whatever you want. I usually keep them close to the same as a standard wager as illustrated in my career breakdown which makes them just as difficult to hit as straight wagers. This one is actually TOUGHER at +110 since I'm willing to play a 5-teamer and, as compensation, get 13 points in my favor. First five teamer I've ever played (I've only played 16 teasers in my life). The only game I'm concerned with is San Diego since I've seen some good cappers on Miami at -2.5. I think New England has a fair chance of knocking off Denver but can't see the Broncos losing by double digits. I think the Giants will be tough off a bye on Monday versus the Colts but ditto about double digits.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

NFL

Last week:  1-4

Documented forum record

Career:  328-258-19  (56.0%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  7-7-0  (50%)  -$330.....ROI:  -4.2%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  319-253-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  9-5-0  (65%).....avg line:  -110


WEEK 7

Jacksonville +5.5 -108  ($540 to win $500)
Oakland +3.5 -108  ($540 to win $500)

These plays were locked in Thursday night. They both are showing around a 58% win rate expectancy. Their opponents, Arizona and Cleveland, are both in letdown situations coupled with line value situations on the Jags and Raiders, the two worst teams in the NFL. The Browns just destroyed division rival Pittsburgh and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, but 5.5-point favorites on the road? It would be natural to find it hard to get up for the Jaguars and they just lost pro bowl center Mack for the season. The Raiders nearly tasted victory for the first time last week at home against the Chargers. They led most of the way but fell short in the end but get another chance at home this week against a banged-up Cardinals team.


10.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, +124  ($500 to win $620)

Seattle +3
Denver +3.5
SF/Den Over 39.5
KC/SD Over 35


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

NFL

Last week:  2-1

Documented forum record

Career:  327-254-19  (56.3%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  6-3-0  (67%)  +$1,425.....ROI:  28.0%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  318-251-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  9-3-0  (75%).....avg line:  -110


WEEK 6

NY Jets +10 -113  ($565 to win $500)

Buffalo +3 -118  ($590 to win $500)

Oakland +7 -108  ($540 to win $500)


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Indianapolis +4
Cincinnati -1


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Oakland +14.5
Seattle -3

Wish I had time to do a writeup on some reasons I like these plays because they are some of the strongest indicators I've had on the season so far, namely the Jets and Buffalo. I would think the Patriots would continue their roll from last Sunday night but Kyle Orton projects to be a thorn in their side this weekend.

I was also planning on displaying my data analysis that kicks in full speed on Week 6 but I have prior commitments this weekend that are forcing me to put my picks up early (Wednesday). Locked in these lines earlier than I wanted to as well since I don't want to risk not being able to do it later since I won't be in my usual element.

Best wishes.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: W
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 11-5.....Next: W

NFL

Last week:  3-1

Documented forum record

Career:  325-253-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

Past year breakdown:
Sides:  316-249-19  (56%)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%)


2014:  4-2-0  (67%)  +$955

This year's breakdown:
ROI:  +28.0%
ATS Sides:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -118
Teasers:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -102


WEEK 5


Washington +7 -105  ($525 to win $500)

The Seahawks are not nearly as dominant on the road, scoring 22.0 points per game in the Russell Wilson era vs 29.9 ppg at home. That's almost 8 points less. Their margin of victory away from Seattle is +4.3 ppg. Just 6-6 ats as road favorites and 1-1 of a TD or more. Washington will be hosting this party on Monday night coming off extra rest and after getting blown out by division rival NY by 31. Seattle is off a bye but lost their only other road favorite game off a bye in 2012, 21-24 at Miami as 2.5-point faves. This game has every ingredient for a motivating performance by the under-valued Redskins. I have not locked this line in yet.


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Green Bay -3
Denver -2


7.0-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -120  ($600 to win $500)

New Orleans -4
Philadelphia -1

My main purpose for teasers is to play larger favorites that my work shows as having value without having to lay those big lines. The Pack goes Thursday coming off a strong offensive showing against the Bears on Sunday. Bridgewater is questionable. Denver has had two weeks to chew on their tough loss to Seattle. They should be ready to roll versus Arizona who is due for a loss. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. They return home to face a Bucs team that I picked last week when they upset the Steelers. That probably won't happen two weeks in a row. Philly also needs to rebound from a loss when they host the Rams who are going nowhere.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: W
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 11-5.....Next: W