COVERING THE NFL - W8

Last week:  3-2

Similar to Week 6, I split my two sides and won the teaser in Week 7. I'm now 12-10 (55%) on sides and 4-2 (67%) on teasers. I stated before the season started that I would be expanding my repertoire to increase the number of plays I made. For the prior 8 seasons (only three of which are documented in my career record below) I had been extremely selective in my plays although my lesser plays have almost always been profitable as well. I finally decided I'd rather try to make more money with more plays in a sport I have a strong handle on than just play it safe and only play the high percentage picks. I'm on pace for around 75 picks this year which would be the most I've had in ten years. I could still even loosen the rope a little more next year and exceed 100 plays but I'm fine where I'm at now for this season. I'm on pace for around 9 units of profit at 1 unit per game, which is a very solid NFL season.


Documented forum record:

Career:  366-284-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  345-273-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  19-11  (63%).....avg line:  -109
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  16-12-0  (57%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  16-19-0  (46%)  picks: SF,CLE,NYJ,DAL,IND


Week 8 picks

Detroit +3 +103
Houston -3 -135

Dallas +5 -108

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W7

Last week:  4-3

Split my three sides last week and won the teaser. I'm now 10-8 in sides and 3-2 in teasers. On a 10-5 run in the LVH SuperContest after another 3-2 week. Could have been a little better even seeing how I got back-doored by the Colts on Sunday night and lost by a half point. I also lost a side wager on Detroit by a half point and won the Browns game by one point. I already won the Seattle game in the LVH contest played on Thursday night.

*It has come to my attention that my post scheduler here on the blog is not working properly, releasing these posts sometime on Sunday afternoon. I will just release manually from now on. You'll have to check in here before kickoff on Sunday, though, as the emails only get released every evening which arrive in your inbox after most of the action is done. This is very challenging for me due to other weekend commitments to do these writeups before the wee hours Saturday night/Sunday morning so bear with me. In fact, it would be nice to hear from some of you who receive these posts on email to send me a simple shout back if you can just so I know people are reading. I'd hate to do this for nothing since my weekends are already insane (it's 6am right now and I haven't gone to bed yet). Hope you understand! I'll gladly keep doing this if people read it.


Documented forum record:

Career:  363-282-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  343-271-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  18-11  (63%).....avg line:  -109
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  13-10-0  (57%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  14-16-0  (47%)  picks: SEA,BUF,KC,WAS,DAL


Here is my Week 7 rankings based on comparing each team to above or below an average team:

		OVERALL VERSUS AN AVERAGE TEAM
#		Team	W	L	+/-
1		New England	5	0	13.9
2		NY Jets	4	1	9.8
3		Arizona	4	2	9.0
4		Pittsburgh	4	2	7.6
5		Cincinnati	6	0	7.4
6		Philadelphia	3	3	6.1
7		Green Bay	6	0	5.1
8		Atlanta	5	1	3.8
9		Buffalo	3	3	3.8
10		Carolina	5	0	3.2
11		Seattle	2	4	3.0
12		Denver	6	0	1.9
13		Washington	2	4	0.1
14		St. Louis	2	3	0.0
15		NY Giants	3	3	-0.2
16		Dallas	2	3	-0.8
17		San Diego	2	4	-1.3
18		New Orleans	2	4	-1.9
19		Minnesota	3	2	-2.0
20		Baltimore	1	5	-2.1
21		Cleveland	2	4	-2.5
22		Miami	2	3	-2.7
23		Indianapolis	3	3	-2.9
24		Kansas City	1	5	-2.9
25		Oakland	2	3	-3.4
26		San Francisco	2	4	-4.6
27		Tennessee	1	4	-6.3
28		Houston	2	4	-6.8
29		Detroit	1	5	-7.2
30		Chicago	2	4	-7.6
31		Jacksonville	1	5	-9.3
32		Tampa Bay	2	3	-11.1

This means New England has performed 13.9 points better than an average team and lead the NFL by a decent margin. The Jets, who rank 2nd and visit Foxboro this weekend, are at 9.8, so you can deduce that the Patriots should be favored by 4.1 points plus home-field advantage over the Jets. I usually add 3 points for home field (it can vary slightly depending on the team) so NE should be roughly -7. The current line as of post is -7.5 which came down a lot from the opening line of -10 and rightfully so.

The Patriots boast the top offense at +12.8 points better than an average team, the Cardinals are 2nd at +8.4 and Falcons 3rd at +6.0. The Steelers rank #1 in defense giving up 7.3 points less than an average team would, followed by the Jets 2nd at 6.6 and Broncos 3rd at 4.3.

Taking these numbers above and accentuating recent games into the overall mix brings me to these point spreads for Week 7:

			act	S1		S3
Seattle			-6.5	-2.3		-7.4
San Francisco			6.5	2.3		7.4
Buffalo			-4.5	-2.6		-9.6
Jacksonville			4.5	2.6		9.6
Tampa Bay			3.0	9.9		14.9
Washington			-3.0	-9.9		-14.9
Atlanta			-6.0	-1.4		-6.7
Tennessee			6.0	1.4		6.7
New Orleans			4.0	3.3		3.8
Indianapolis			-4.0	-3.3		-3.8
Minnesota			-1.5	1.3		-0.9
Detroit			1.5	-1.3		0.9
Pittsburgh			2.5	-3.1		-7.7
Kansas City			-2.5	3.1		7.7
Cleveland			6.5	4.7		5.4
St. Louis			-6.5	-4.7		-5.4
Houston			5.0	4.1		6.2
Miami			-5.0	-4.1		-6.2
NY Jets			7.5	4.5		6.5
New England			-7.5	-4.5		-6.5
Oakland			4.0	5.0		5.8
San Diego			-4.0	-5.0		-5.8
Dallas			3.5	3.7		3.1
NY Giants			-3.5	-3.7		-3.1
Philadelphia			3.0	0.8		-0.7
Carolina			-3.0	-0.8		0.7
Baltimore			8.0	8.7		14.4
Arizona			-8.0	-8.7		-14.4

I show three lines. The first is the actual line, the second (S1) is a line derived from turnovers, sacks and penalties and the third (S3, which is the one I emphasize the most, is based on the scoring numbers in the rankings, neutralized for strength of schedule. So the team that has the largest differential from the actual line to S3 is Washington. My numbers say they should be favored by -14.9 points at home but they're only -3....an 11.9 differential. I played Washington in the LVH contest but I'm not high enough on them for my official money picks due to some slight conflicting situational data.

On to the picks for W7.....


Kansas City -3 +104

This situation sets up well for KC. They still have talent on this team despite losing Charles for the season.


NY Jets +7.5 -108

Still too many points to give a 4-1 division rival. This is a motivating test for the Jets. Pats are always motivated too, though.



Detroit +2 -105

Maybe the start of a mini run for the Lions?


Dallas +3 +100


Both teams ranked in the middle of the pack but Dallas has more upside once the offense gets healthy to match a strong defense. Cowboys have had a bye to figure out Eli and the Giants but after last week's dismal showing in Philadelphia, it's the Giants who need to figure things out.


7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120

Arizona -3
Over 42.5

Back to back losses for the Cardinals and now they return home on Monday Night. A good spot to bounce back against the Ravens who are ready to mail in their season. I expect plenty of scoring as well.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W6

Last week:  3-1

Good week going 3-1 (2-1 in sides, 1-0 in teasers) and 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest. I'm now 7-5 in sides on the season and 2-2 in teasers.


Documented forum record:

Career:  359-279-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  340-268-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  17-11  (61%).....avg line:  -107
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  9-7-0  (56%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  11-14-0  (44%)  picks: HOU,MIA,PIT,WAS,NE


Week 6

Cleveland +4 -116

Browns have been a tough out most of the season, especially at home and Denver is a little banged up and overachieving to be 5-0. Their defense has saved their bacon on several occasions.

Buffalo +3 -101

Rex will have his troops ready to play at Orchard Park. Bengals, and specifically Andy Dalton, look different this year. I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop all year but they pulled out a great come-from-behind win over the Seahawks last week. Still, I like the home dog, which plays well in that stadium.

Detroit -3.5 -108

After several near misses, I think this is the week the Lions finally get it right. The situation sets up: at home versus a division rival that is vulnerable.

NY Jets -7 +103
Arizona -3.5 -109

Observant readers will notice I picked opposite on these two games in the SuperContest. Yep, I'm screwed. This is a rare combination of the early deadline in the contest (I submit my picks to Vegas on Friday afternoon), combined with this being a weak week for situational analysis (I was forced to go with minor situations on Washington and Pittsburgh for the contest) and on Saturday other key information came in to put me on the opposite side strongly enough to play them now (as I only play my strongest picks). This has not happened before and suddenly it happens twice in the same week. Most likely, these two games will split but I am obviously much more confident in the two here that I put my money on.

Miami +2 -108

New coach, new culture. It's not always the case but I see it here. The situation sets up well: a long layoff to make the changes after the overseas game against the Jets, time to reflect for some of the players under-performing (Suh, not to mention any names) and a weak opponent with a rookie quarterback that has been inconsistent. It's also a big opportunity for the Dolphins to try to save their season. If not now, when?


7.5-point teaser, ties reduce, -130

Green Bay -4
New England -2.5

Riding the two best teams in the NFL for a second straight week because GB is at home again and the Patriots oppose a team they want to beat as badly as anyone. I'm paying a lot more juice than I'd like to with the 7.5 points because I'm slightly concerned with the Packers as they have not been lighting it up lately but the Chargers are off a tough loss, so they could be thinking "If we can't win that game last week, how's it gonna go in Lambeau against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers"? Rodgers looks to rebound from 2 picks last week.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W5

Last week:  1-1

Split my two sides last week but had my first good week in the SuperContest, going 4-1 to climb to a fairly respectable 8-12. Three-quarters of the season left. I already lost the Thursday game this week in the contest with Houston not getting the job done, but lots of contestants picked Houston as well given the 4 points of line value due to Andrew Luck not playing (the contest was Houston -1 but the actual line climbed to -5). The Colts played a nearly flawless game, however, and won 27-20.


Documented forum record:

Career:  356-278-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  338-267-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  16-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  6-6-0  (50%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  8-12-0  (40%)  picks: HOU,JAC,CLE,ARI,SF


Week 5

Arizona -3 -115

Cardinals lost their first game of the season last week on home field. Look for them to bounce back against the tough-luck Lions.

Philadelphia -6 -108

Unrest is growing in Philadelphia with angry Eagles' fans calling radio shows to vent their frustrations over Chip Kelly's offense. They will correct this, though, and no better place to start than in front of those fans today against a Saints team allowing the most yards per play in the league.

San Diego -3.5 -108


This is the Monday nighter. Time for the Chargers to make everything right on the bright stage against Michael Vick and the Steelers. Vick was mostly ineffective in the Steelers' last loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has been respectable overall without Roethlisberger but I don't see them keeping up with Philip Rivers and San Diego's passing attack in this one.

7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120

Green Bay -3
New England -3

Packers at home where Rodgers is an absolute machine and Brady and the Patriots off a bye in Dallas. Pats are 11-3 off a bye in the Brady/Belichick era but, then again, the Patriots have won 76% of all games in any situation.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W4

Last week:  3-1

Off to a nightmare start in the SuperContest. Considering my actual side wagers are 4-3, that means the extra eight picks I've added for the contest to satisfy the "five per week" requirement (which are still good picks judging from my history of tracking) have gone 0-8. That's hard to do. Long way to go, though. Couple of 5-0's would change everything.


Documented forum record:

Career:  355-277-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  337-266-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  16-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  5-5-0  (50%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  4-11-0  (27%)  picks: JAC,CHI,SF,STL,DET


Week 4

Cleveland +7 -125

Played this at 8am ET, and now the line has dropped to 5.5. I don't recommend taking anything less than a TD, so if it doesn't return to 7 at no more juice than -130, I would pass. Got juiced out on both of these plays today but I don't mind that once in awhile because by the end of the year my average juice will be more than reasonable overall.

San Francisco +8.5 -125

The 49ers fit several situational angles today as a big ugly home dog to the high-flying Packers. These teams have been going in different directions which always supplies added value in the line so, assuming a decent level of motivation and focus for the underdog, which I believe we'll have here, we should have a great chance to cover.



Future



Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W3

Last week:  2-4

Not a great week as I went 2-2 on sides and lost both sides of my teaser, which I'm still a profitable 15-11 overall over the years.


Documented forum record:

Career:  352-276-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  335-265-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  15-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  2-4-0  (33%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  3-7-0  (30%)  picks: STL,NE,CLE,CHI,SF


Week 3

New England -14 -101

Not usually my style to pick double-digit favorites as most teams would let down against Jacksonville. The Patriots don't let down against anybody. Belichick always gives his team a healthy fear of any opponent.

Chicago +14.5 -109

More my style here as the Bears fit a situation that has been 61-40 ats for me in the history of my specific situational analysis. Seahawks will surely win but I'm looking to be aided by all those points and a heavy dose of Matt Forte.



10-point teaser, ties reduce, -115

New England -4.5
Indianapolis +6.5
Seattle -5.5


Future
Denver o10 wins -135

Since the first half of yesterday's teaser wager lost, I am starting a new teaser with the other half, Indianapolis, tonight and leaving it open to fill next weekend.


6-point teaser, ties win, -105

Indianapolis -1
Open

COVERING THE NFL - W2

Last week:  0-0


Documented forum record:

Career:  350-272-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  333-263-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  15-9  (63%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  0-0-0  (00%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  2-3-0  (40%)  picks: TB,DET,BAL,SEA,IND


Week 2

I always skip Week 1 as it is a crapshoot, at least with my handicapping style. I was 3-0-1 in my four early games for the SuperContest into the 3rd quarters but everything went downhill and, after St. Louis gave up 18 unanswered points to Seattle, I was looking at a possible 0-4 all of a sudden. Fortunately, the Rams picked themselves up off the mat, the dust settled at 1-3 and I took home the Giants at +6.5 in Dallas later that evening for a 2-3 start in the contest that feels more like 3-2 or 4-1 from an emotional standpoint.

Now my handicapping kicks in for Week 2. I view the NFL as the most unique sport because they only play a precious 16 games in the season and on a weekly basis, so many games are defined by player focus and emotion based on the situation at hand. Over the years I have recognized a lot of these "situations" and they ring true year after year.

My career record displayed above was assembled by a more statistical approach in the years from 2002-2007, which worked well enough, but in 2008 I changed my direction and focused more on situational analysis. I stopped posting on these boards for the next four years but have returned to go 86-51-3 ats (63%) the last three seasons. My situational analysis has limited my number of plays as I am very picky with the strength of play I'm willing to put my money on, but I plan on opening things up this year to 70-90 plays. I have added a few teasers the last two years (at -106 average odds) and last season tried my hand at a couple futures.

This year I have one future on Denver o10 wins at -135 odds. My reasoning for this is the fact that Manning tailed off badly last year and was getting discredited in their 2015 potential win total as a result. The defense is stout and the offense will improve as the year goes on. That defense, even with an old Manning, is still good enough for at least 11 wins. Kind of fortunate to be 2-0, though.

On to this week's plays....don't have much time left for writeups now.....best of luck to everyone this season. Remember to enjoy yourself a little.


Tampa Bay +10 -116

Not a pretty pick but the Bucs show up on my situational radar in a capacity that has gone 60-40-2 ats for me in the seven years of doing this analysis.

Pittsburgh -6.5 -105

Steelers moved the ball well on the Patriots in the season opener. If they eliminate some sloppy play, they should do well at home here.

Detroit +2.5 -103

Good bounce back spot for the Lions facing a divisional opponent on the road.

Seattle +3.5 -110

Revenge on the minds of the Pack after last year's NFC Championship. However this is just a regular season game so that's a little over-blown. More of a factor, in my mind, is the motivating fear for Seattle of starting 0-2. I'll take the hook.

6-point teaser, ties win, -105

Baltimore -1
Indianapolis -1.5


Future
Denver o10 wins -135

MLB UPDATE:

Was planning on posting baseball picks from my newly-refined, massive MLB spreadsheet around August 1st but real life got in the way and I fell behind with the work. Been a catch up game all season entering two lines of stats (one for each team) for nearly 1,700 games to this point PLUS all the tweaks to the calculations in the spreadsheet to get everything the way I like it.

I have weights for different data sets and I need to be able to post-analyze the results by altering the weights after the games have been played to find the most effective combinations. This took a ton of time but it's finally set up now and it's pretty exciting to see it work. To have the ability to post-analyze and learn from the results will expedite the maturity of this math model.

So, no MLB picks this year. With NFL only a couple weeks away, my time has already shifted to football in what always has the potential of being another very profitable NFL season. So the top priority is to stay ahead of things and be completely ready for NFL, NBA (and maybe NHL too) rather than continuing to scramble playing catch up. In the meantime, the goal is to gather at least 500 games of MLB results in my spare time. I started with games on August 1st and have 80 games in the database so far. The results have already started off well but....it's only 80 games.


NFL - ***(OFFERING PIECES OF MY SUPERCONTEST ENTRY)***

I will have an entry in the LVH Westgate NFL SuperContest for the second straight year. I finished 78th out of 1,403 last year in my inaugural attempt, hitting 60% (51-34-0 ats), normally a good enough performance to cash most of the previous contests but I didn't quite make the cut in the largest field in contest history. My "truer" record, based on neutralizing good/bad beats, was 55-30-0 since I went an unfortunate 1-5 in "legitimate" good/bad beats (we're not talking winning or losing by a half point, but rather things like what happened in Week 1 with Jacksonville (+14) trailing by 10 but LEADING the spread by 4, WITH the ball, last possession of the game, if they fail to win the game I still cover, if they turn it over Philly kneels on the ball and I cover, but they fumbled, Philly scooped it up and ran it in for a backdoor touchdown and a miracle cover). THOSE types of "switched outcomes" that had a 95-98% chance of winning or losing. Had those six games stayed the course, I would have finished 55-30 which would have collected over $26,000 (and "if" ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas). May I go 5-1 in good/bad beats this year :)

***I sold a small piece of my entry last year and have decided to offer around 40% of my 2015 entry. My cost is $1,500 for the entry and $200 proxy fee for a total of $1,700. I am offering 10% blocks for $170 each to receive 10% of my net winnings from the contest. There will be contracts drawn. I have 30% remaining for sale.

If interested, reply to this email before September 13, 2015

MLB Baseball


With the All-Star game behind us and the second half of the MLB season underway, I will begin posting my MLB selections at this blog starting around Saturday, August 1st.

What the heck have I been doing all year, you ask? Very extensive reconstruction of the previous baseball math model. Basically, I tore it all down and started over. Took me way longer than I thought. Over the past three seasons, I have achieved modest success in this sport, made a reasonable profit all three years, but my work continuously evolves each and every year as I hone my skills in the art of statistical prediction models. Been doing this in earnest for around 13 years now.

There's little doubt the level of work I'm doing now is leaps and bounds better than anything I've done in the past. The simple reason being there is so much to learn and understand about statistical prediction models and so many different ways to do it....the #1 reason I love what I do. There's no right or wrong way, only different levels of quality. And now I've reached the "next" level.

This level started this past winter in NBA, where my newly developed basketball model was regression-fitted to show a 56.8% ATS expectancy if my predicted line was 5 points better than the actual line (51.9% for a single point of an edge over the Vegas line and a 1.223% increase for every added point of value, so just a 2-point edge would be profitable at 53.1%).

With baseball, I'm using the same approach although the differences are obvious. Money lines instead of point spreads. Different starting pitchers every day. Bullpens. Park effects, weather, etc. I have taken just about everything imaginable into account for the analysis. Being a brand new model, I will unavoidably be starting slow to feel things out, only playing the largest overlays that I can find until things settle in. By starting around August 1st, I will have two months of data (approx. 800 games) to work with and analyze in order to make it a more productive prediction model in 2016 (more selections). But this next two months will tell me a lot as I learn how much of an overlay is profitable and by how much. I've also set up my spreadsheet to be able to cross-analyze the results for the purpose of improving accuracy going forward.

I am confident of success even this year in the two-month trial period. Simply put, there are nuances in each sport that offer the diligent handicapper the opportunity to make a more accurate money line in baseball than Vegas does because Vegas' lines are biased or influenced by the betting action, either perceived or actual. My line is a true reflection of the two teams in question with no outside influences. So I simply compare my "truth" to their "offering". I'm looking for a 5-10% ROI range or better.

In other sports, I will be entering the LVH Westgate NFL SuperContest for the second time this year. I finished 78th out of 1,403 last year in my inaugural attempt, hitting 60% (51-34-0 ats), normally a good enough performance to cash many of the previous contests but I didn't win a dime in the largest field in contest history and I even had some negative luck going 1-5 in legitimate good/bad beats. It may not be this year, but I will make a top 5 run in that contest at some point. Wish I played it the two years prior when I hit 62% and 70% ats respectively in 2012 and 2013.

Anyway, those contest picks will be posted here as well as all of my NFL selections as I'll be opening up my repertoire to deliver significantly more plays than I usually do (70-90 vs 45-55 normally). Less than 7 weeks till kickoff.

NBA

Friday: 1-0



YTD:  40-37-1  (52%)  +0.90 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  3-0  +3.00 units


Updating the tally on the shortened season after the teaser win for a final record of 40-37-1 (52%) and a profit of a little less than a unit.

NBA

Wednesday: 1-1



YTD:  39-37-1  (52%)  -0.10 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Atlanta -6 (pending)

Closing out my open teaser and also closing out my NBA season quite a bit early. I consulted a respected colleague of mine about this NBA prediction model that I restructured this season and began tracking on January 5th and we concluded that the 300+ predictions so far were of excellent quality. Generally, the linear regression model run on the predictions indicated that the picks have an above-average base of 50.65% and get progressively more accurate by 1.22% for every point of value over the oddsmaker's line, so a line I create that is 5 points different from the actual line should win at a 56.8% ATS rate, for example.

While that is encouraging despite the limited sample size, I also know that my work is not complete. It's a great starting point but there is an obvious weakness in there as well regarding making an adjustment for lineup changes like injuries or trades. That's the area I need to tighten up and, being around the trading deadline, I'm anticipating more and more inaccuracies in my line predictions as the season winds down so I'm closing up shop to work on that because it will be no small task. Actually I'm expecting it to be a huge project of top notch work to match the work I put into the foundation that I already have.

Thanks to those of you who followed along for the brief month and a half that I was posting the plays. I was hovering around 60% for the first month and sat at 32-24-1 (57%) at the All-Star break. I'll probably skip the week or so after the break next year as there was clearly a disruption in continuity with most teams having 8-11 days off without playing. My 7-13 mark since the break brought my record all the way down to 39-37-1 ATS.

Next season everything will be in place so you can expect a great NBA season with several hundred picks from November to April. I'm also eagerly anticipating my baseball selections that will start in a couple months. Got some good stuff there too! I usually do NHL at the same time as NBA but may or may not replace that with college basketball next season since I'm a lot more comfortable with my basketball handicapping now. NFL, which has always been my most successful league, will see an opening up of selections in 2015 to where I expect 70-90 picks instead of my usual 50-60. It's going to be a good year and it will all be posted right here at this blog.

Best wishes,

Bruce

NBA

Yesterday: 0-1

On a terrible 6-12 run coming off the All-Star break and the possible loss of continuity these teams might be suffering after having 8 or 9 days off which, by the way, was a longer ASB than usual. The new commissioner implemented a longer break this season amidst complaints from players that they were getting worn down during the season. You can expect the league to either start earlier or end later as early as next year as another measure to spread out the season and give the players more rest, mainly eliminating playing four games in five nights.


YTD:  38-36-1  (52%)  -0.03 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  20-17-1  +2.24 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units

	ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups	cat	act line	my line	side val	totl val	effcncy	move
Miami	4	200.0	191.7			-2.29	1.35
Orlando	3	3.5	3.0	0.5	8.3	-5.59	0.43
New York	1	197.5	192.4	6.0		-9.05	(0.38)
Boston	4	-10.5	-4.5		5.1	-2.41	(1.25)
Dallas	7	204.5	201.6	8.7		3.12	(0.35)
Atlanta	9	-9.0	-0.3		2.9	6.88	(1.12)
Washington	6	201.0	197.3	0.6		0.13	(0.66)
Minnesota	2	-2.0	-1.4		3.7	-6.54	2.46
Brooklyn	3	193.0	195.4		2.4	-4.10	(1.96)
New Orleans	6	2.5	-2.7	5.2		0.14	(1.54)
Philadelphia	1	187.0	186.5	1.0		-8.92	2.61
Milwaukee	7	-10.5	-9.5		0.5	3.06	1.10
LA Clippers	8	218.0	205.0	2.7		5.94	(1.14)
Houston	8	-3.5	-0.8		13.0	4.58	1.19
Charlotte	4	188.0	191.5	3.9	3.5	-2.20	(1.73)
Chicago	7	-7.0	-3.1			2.29	(0.23)
Phoenix	5	214.0	212.1			-0.06	(2.90)
Denver	3	6.0	-1.8	7.8	1.9	-5.59	(1.91)
LA Lakers	3	192.0	196.1	3.5	4.1	-5.91	(1.73)
Utah	6	-10.0	-6.5			0.39	2.21
Memphis	8	200.0	197.9			4.30	2.37
Sacramento	3	7.0	0.8	6.2	2.1	-5.00	(2.75)
San Antonio	7	194.5	196.1		1.6	2.82	0.54
Portland	7	-2.5	-3.4	0.9		2.18	(1.77)

Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

Dallas +9 -107
Charlotte +7 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)