Thursday, August 27, 2015

MLB UPDATE:

Was planning on posting baseball picks from my newly-refined, massive MLB spreadsheet around August 1st but real life got in the way and I fell behind with the work. Been a catch up game all season entering two lines of stats (one for each team) for nearly 1,700 games to this point PLUS all the tweaks to the calculations in the spreadsheet to get everything the way I like it.

I have weights for different data sets and I need to be able to post-analyze the results by altering the weights after the games have been played to find the most effective combinations. This took a ton of time but it's finally set up now and it's pretty exciting to see it work. To have the ability to post-analyze and learn from the results will expedite the maturity of this math model.

So, no MLB picks this year. With NFL only a couple weeks away, my time has already shifted to football in what always has the potential of being another very profitable NFL season. So the top priority is to stay ahead of things and be completely ready for NFL, NBA (and maybe NHL too) rather than continuing to scramble playing catch up. In the meantime, the goal is to gather at least 500 games of MLB results in my spare time. I started with games on August 1st and have 80 games in the database so far. The results have already started off well but....it's only 80 games.


NFL - ***(OFFERING PIECES OF MY SUPERCONTEST ENTRY)***

I will have an entry in the LVH Westgate NFL SuperContest for the second straight year. I finished 78th out of 1,403 last year in my inaugural attempt, hitting 60% (51-34-0 ats), normally a good enough performance to cash most of the previous contests but I didn't quite make the cut in the largest field in contest history. My "truer" record, based on neutralizing good/bad beats, was 55-30-0 since I went an unfortunate 1-5 in "legitimate" good/bad beats (we're not talking winning or losing by a half point, but rather things like what happened in Week 1 with Jacksonville (+14) trailing by 10 but LEADING the spread by 4, WITH the ball, last possession of the game, if they fail to win the game I still cover, if they turn it over Philly kneels on the ball and I cover, but they fumbled, Philly scooped it up and ran it in for a backdoor touchdown and a miracle cover). THOSE types of "switched outcomes" that had a 95-98% chance of winning or losing. Had those six games stayed the course, I would have finished 55-30 which would have collected over $26,000 (and "if" ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas). May I go 5-1 in good/bad beats this year :)

***I sold a small piece of my entry last year and have decided to offer around 40% of my 2015 entry. My cost is $1,500 for the entry and $200 proxy fee for a total of $1,700. I am offering 10% blocks for $170 each to receive 10% of my net winnings from the contest. There will be contracts drawn. I have 30% remaining for sale.

If interested, reply to this email before September 13, 2015