COVERING THE NFL - W3

Last week:  2-4

Not a great week as I went 2-2 on sides and lost both sides of my teaser, which I'm still a profitable 15-11 overall over the years.


Documented forum record:

Career:  352-276-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  335-265-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  15-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  2-4-0  (33%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  3-7-0  (30%)  picks: STL,NE,CLE,CHI,SF


Week 3

New England -14 -101

Not usually my style to pick double-digit favorites as most teams would let down against Jacksonville. The Patriots don't let down against anybody. Belichick always gives his team a healthy fear of any opponent.

Chicago +14.5 -109

More my style here as the Bears fit a situation that has been 61-40 ats for me in the history of my specific situational analysis. Seahawks will surely win but I'm looking to be aided by all those points and a heavy dose of Matt Forte.



10-point teaser, ties reduce, -115

New England -4.5
Indianapolis +6.5
Seattle -5.5


Future
Denver o10 wins -135

Since the first half of yesterday's teaser wager lost, I am starting a new teaser with the other half, Indianapolis, tonight and leaving it open to fill next weekend.


6-point teaser, ties win, -105

Indianapolis -1
Open

COVERING THE NFL - W2

Last week:  0-0


Documented forum record:

Career:  350-272-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  333-263-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  15-9  (63%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  0-0-0  (00%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  2-3-0  (40%)  picks: TB,DET,BAL,SEA,IND


Week 2

I always skip Week 1 as it is a crapshoot, at least with my handicapping style. I was 3-0-1 in my four early games for the SuperContest into the 3rd quarters but everything went downhill and, after St. Louis gave up 18 unanswered points to Seattle, I was looking at a possible 0-4 all of a sudden. Fortunately, the Rams picked themselves up off the mat, the dust settled at 1-3 and I took home the Giants at +6.5 in Dallas later that evening for a 2-3 start in the contest that feels more like 3-2 or 4-1 from an emotional standpoint.

Now my handicapping kicks in for Week 2. I view the NFL as the most unique sport because they only play a precious 16 games in the season and on a weekly basis, so many games are defined by player focus and emotion based on the situation at hand. Over the years I have recognized a lot of these "situations" and they ring true year after year.

My career record displayed above was assembled by a more statistical approach in the years from 2002-2007, which worked well enough, but in 2008 I changed my direction and focused more on situational analysis. I stopped posting on these boards for the next four years but have returned to go 86-51-3 ats (63%) the last three seasons. My situational analysis has limited my number of plays as I am very picky with the strength of play I'm willing to put my money on, but I plan on opening things up this year to 70-90 plays. I have added a few teasers the last two years (at -106 average odds) and last season tried my hand at a couple futures.

This year I have one future on Denver o10 wins at -135 odds. My reasoning for this is the fact that Manning tailed off badly last year and was getting discredited in their 2015 potential win total as a result. The defense is stout and the offense will improve as the year goes on. That defense, even with an old Manning, is still good enough for at least 11 wins. Kind of fortunate to be 2-0, though.

On to this week's plays....don't have much time left for writeups now.....best of luck to everyone this season. Remember to enjoy yourself a little.


Tampa Bay +10 -116

Not a pretty pick but the Bucs show up on my situational radar in a capacity that has gone 60-40-2 ats for me in the seven years of doing this analysis.

Pittsburgh -6.5 -105

Steelers moved the ball well on the Patriots in the season opener. If they eliminate some sloppy play, they should do well at home here.

Detroit +2.5 -103

Good bounce back spot for the Lions facing a divisional opponent on the road.

Seattle +3.5 -110

Revenge on the minds of the Pack after last year's NFC Championship. However this is just a regular season game so that's a little over-blown. More of a factor, in my mind, is the motivating fear for Seattle of starting 0-2. I'll take the hook.

6-point teaser, ties win, -105

Baltimore -1
Indianapolis -1.5


Future
Denver o10 wins -135