2014 MLB TARP Analysis (Team Adjusted Run Production)
Yesterday: 2-1 +0.68
Defense wins championships and I geared this system to predict the defensive side of the ball more. So far, the results have played this out, albeit after only a small sample size posted here. My average runs allowed per game so far is 3.44, which is 0.66 rpg less than the major league average of 4.10. As long as my offenses can produce close to average I should be alright. My rpg is above average at 4.20 but my OPS is lacking a bit at just .650, although higher than the .625 for my opponents. Just negative variance so far being slightly in the red with a +0.76 average margin of victory.
YTD: -0.36 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 25
ROI: -1.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.90 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 52.0%
Favorites: 14 games, +6.36 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.20
Runs allowed per game: 3.44 (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .650
OPS allowed per game: .625 (MLB avg is .706)
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
Today's selections
Might play the LA Angels if the line comes down a couple cents. San Diego also qualifies as a play but going to pass since SD is 2-4 L6 and I had them projected to go 5-1 in those six games. LAD are only 1-4 L5 but I only had them projected for 2-3. Plus, the mighty Kershaw goes tonight and he already lost his last game. Not going to bet on him losing two in a row.
Yesterday: 2-1 +0.68
Defense wins championships and I geared this system to predict the defensive side of the ball more. So far, the results have played this out, albeit after only a small sample size posted here. My average runs allowed per game so far is 3.44, which is 0.66 rpg less than the major league average of 4.10. As long as my offenses can produce close to average I should be alright. My rpg is above average at 4.20 but my OPS is lacking a bit at just .650, although higher than the .625 for my opponents. Just negative variance so far being slightly in the red with a +0.76 average margin of victory.
YTD: -0.36 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 25
ROI: -1.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.90 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 52.0%
Favorites: 14 games, +6.36 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.20
Runs allowed per game: 3.44 (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .650
OPS allowed per game: .625 (MLB avg is .706)
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
| OFF | DEF | RUNS | rLINE | aLINE | |||
| Arizona | -0.9 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 217 | 183 | ||
| Washington | 0.6 | -0.8 | 5.3 | -227 | -195 | ||
| Atlanta | 1.2 | 0.6 | 5.3 | -135 | -182 | ||
| Cincinnati | -0.6 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 125 | 172 | ||
| San Francisco | 0.5 | -0.9 | 5.4 | -184 | -175 | ||
| Chi Cubs | -0.2 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 174 | 165 | ||
| San Diego | 0.5 | -1.7 | 2.1 | 100 | 210 | ||
| LA Dodgers | -0.1 | -2.5 | 2.3 | -110 | -230 | ||
| Houston | 0.9 | -0.1 | 4.3 | -115 | 161 | ||
| NY Yankees | -0.1 | -0.7 | 3.9 | 105 | -171 | ||
| Cleveland | 0.1 | -3.1 | 3.3 | -242 | -135 | ||
| Minnesota | 0.4 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 232 | 125 | ||
| Detroit | 0.6 | -2.0 | 3.0 | -187 | 106 | ||
| Tampa Bay | -0.5 | -1.7 | 1.6 | 177 | -116 | ||
| LA Angels | -0.5 | -0.6 | 4.4 | -129 | -134 | ||
| Boston | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 119 | 124 | ||
Today's selections
Might play the LA Angels if the line comes down a couple cents. San Diego also qualifies as a play but going to pass since SD is 2-4 L6 and I had them projected to go 5-1 in those six games. LAD are only 1-4 L5 but I only had them projected for 2-3. Plus, the mighty Kershaw goes tonight and he already lost his last game. Not going to bet on him losing two in a row.
