2014 MLB TARP Analysis (Team Adjusted Run Production)
Friday: 1-4 -2.79
Yesterday: 3-0 +2.66
3-0 last night. Showing a net margin of victory of 0.54 runs per game in my 22 plays, and a higher OPS than my opponents yet not in the black. Underdogs are 2-9 so far (not typical for the 3-year history of this system) and favorites are 9-2 (not that typical either, but not as far off).
YTD: -1.04 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 22
ROI: -4.7 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.91 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -110
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%
Favorites: 11 games, +5.68 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.09
Runs allowed per game: 3.55
Average OPS per game: .639
OPS allowed per game: .631
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
Today's selections
LA Angels -125
Cleveland -113
Kansas City -107
Friday: 1-4 -2.79
Yesterday: 3-0 +2.66
3-0 last night. Showing a net margin of victory of 0.54 runs per game in my 22 plays, and a higher OPS than my opponents yet not in the black. Underdogs are 2-9 so far (not typical for the 3-year history of this system) and favorites are 9-2 (not that typical either, but not as far off).
YTD: -1.04 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 22
ROI: -4.7 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.91 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -110
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%
Favorites: 11 games, +5.68 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.09
Runs allowed per game: 3.55
Average OPS per game: .639
OPS allowed per game: .631
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
| OFF | DEF | RUNS | rLINE | aLINE | |||
| Texas | -0.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 142 | 135 | ||
| Miami | 0.0 | -0.4 | 5.2 | -152 | -145 | ||
| Seattle | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 121 | 108 | ||
| Philadelphia | -0.1 | -1.3 | 4.1 | -131 | -118 | ||
| Toronto | -0.5 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 145 | 112 | ||
| Milwaukee | 1.2 | -0.3 | 5.0 | -155 | -122 | ||
| Atlanta | 1.3 | -0.8 | 3.5 | 115 | 106 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 0.8 | -2.0 | 4.1 | -125 | -116 | ||
| Arizona | -1.0 | -1.0 | 2.6 | 133 | 175 | ||
| Washington | 0.4 | -0.6 | 3.6 | -143 | -185 | ||
| Cincinnati | -0.7 | -1.5 | 2.1 | 170 | 100 | ||
| St. Louis | 1.0 | -1.4 | 3.7 | -180 | -110 | ||
| San Francisco | 0.2 | -0.6 | 4.8 | -154 | -127 | ||
| Chi Cubs | -0.4 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 144 | 117 | ||
| San Diego | 0.5 | -0.6 | 3.9 | -115 | 136 | ||
| LA Dodgers | -0.1 | -0.8 | 3.5 | 105 | -146 | ||
| Houston | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 105 | 195 | ||
| NY Yankees | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | -115 | -215 | ||
| Detroit | 0.6 | -0.5 | 3.5 | 99 | 122 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | -1.3 | 3.6 | -109 | -132 | ||
| LA Angels | -0.4 | -2.3 | 4.4 | -266 | -125 | ||
| Boston | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 256 | 115 | ||
| Cleveland | 0.1 | -0.1 | 5.1 | -110 | -113 | ||
| Minnesota | 0.7 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 100 | 103 | ||
| Baltimore | 1.2 | -0.9 | 4.8 | -156 | -150 | ||
| Chi WhSox | -0.1 | -0.6 | 3.2 | 146 | 140 | ||
| NY Mets | -1.0 | -0.4 | 2.3 | 152 | 183 | ||
| Oakland | -0.2 | -0.9 | 3.6 | -162 | -196 | ||
| Kansas City | 1.1 | -1.6 | 5.4 | -134 | -107 | ||
| Colorado | 1.6 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 124 | -103 | ||
Today's selections
LA Angels -125
Cleveland -113
Kansas City -107
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