2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-0 +0.00

Defense wins championships and I geared this system to predict the defensive side of the ball more. So far, the results have played this out, albeit after only a small sample size posted here. My average runs allowed per game so far is 3.44, which is 0.66 rpg less than the major league average of 4.10. As long as my offenses can produce close to average I should be alright. My rpg is above average at 4.20 but my OPS is lacking a bit at just .650, although higher than the .625 for my opponents. Just negative variance so far being slightly in the red with a +0.76 average margin of victory.


YTD:  -0.36 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 25
ROI: -1.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.90 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 52.0%

Favorites: 14 games, +6.36 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.20
Runs allowed per game: 3.44  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .650
OPS allowed per game: .625  (MLB avg is .706)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
St. Louis			1.4	-0.8	7.6	-242	-156
Philadelphia			-0.1	2.1	3.2	232	146
San Francisco			0.6	0.7	2.8	183	139
Washington			0.5	-1.9	5.3	-193	-149
Atlanta			1.2	1.1	5.1	-124	-103
Cincinnati			-0.9	-0.2	4.3	114	-107
Pittsburgh			0.5	1.4	4.1	160	136
Milwaukee			1.3	-0.5	6.8	-170	-146
Miami			0.0	-0.6	5.0	96	-128
Colorado			1.5	0.9	5.0	-106	118
San Diego			0.4	-0.3	5.2	-192	100
Arizona			-1.0	0.7	2.8	182	-110
NY Mets			-0.7	1.1	2.5	199	119
LA Dodgers			-0.1	-0.9	5.1	-209	-129
Houston			0.5	2.8	4.6	143	176
Cleveland			-0.1	0.0	6.8	-153	-186
Chi WhSox			-0.3	1.8	2.0	270	169
NY Yankees			-0.3	-1.8	5.6	-280	-179
Tampa Bay			-0.8	-0.5	2.4	145	112
Toronto			-0.1	-0.9	3.5	-155	-122
Seattle			0.6	-2.6	5.9	-510	-184
Boston			-0.3	1.2	1.2	500	174
Kansas City			0.9	-0.8	5.1	-170	-140
Texas			-0.2	0.1	3.1	160	130
Detroit			0.3	0.0	4.7	99	100
Minnesota			0.8	0.3	4.9	-109	-110
LA Angels			-0.5	-1.7	1.9	107	144
Oakland			-0.2	-1.7	2.2	-117	-154
Baltimore			1.3	-0.3	4.3	-120	-106
Chi Cubs			-0.1	-1.1	3.7	110	-104

Today's selections

Miami -128
Detroit +100