2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Friday:  1-1 -0.22

Detroit lost 20-6 Friday night to the Minnesota Twins which helped bring my runs allowed from 3.44 to 4.11 along with the 5 that Miami allowed. It will take a little time to balance out that huge, disproportionate spike to the average but still a +0.48 average margin of victory overall.


YTD:  -0.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 27
ROI: -2.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 51.9%

Favorites: 15 games, +7.14 units
Underdogs: 12 games, -7.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.59
Runs allowed per game: 4.11  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .672
OPS allowed per game: .665  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Washington			0.8	-0.7	5.8	-202	-131
Philadelphia			-0.4	0.9	3.0	192	121
St. Louis			0.8	0.2	4.3	114	135
Pittsburgh			0.8	-0.6	5.1	-124	-145
Milwaukee			1.3	0.6	4.6	-115	-132
San Diego			-0.5	-0.8	4.2	105	122
Colorado			2.4	2.2	6.4	110	178
San Francisco			1.1	-0.1	7.4	-120	-188
Tampa Bay			-0.5	-1.4	1.3	271	105
Baltimore			0.8	-2.3	3.5	-281	-115
Boston			0.6	0.7	4.1	101	105
Toronto			-0.4	-0.6	4.4	-111	-115
Oakland			0.2	-0.4	5.8	-168	-163
Houston			-0.1	1.5	3.6	158	153
NY Yankees			-0.4	0.0	3.0	152	125
Kansas City			0.6	-0.7	4.7	-162	-135
Texas			0.0	0.6	4.0	127	155
Seattle			0.6	-0.1	5.3	-137	-165
Miami			0.3	-0.4	4.4	-122	154
LA Angels			0.1	0.0	3.8	112	-164

Today's selections

Washington -131
Tampa Bay +105