MLB TARP Analysis - 2014 (TARP = team adjusted run production)
YTD: +0.00 units (@ 1 unit each)
Tonight's matchups showing the offensive and defensive TARP numbers, the projected runs scored, the "real" line, and the actual line:
Tonight's plays
San Francisco +128 (1 unit to win 1.28)
As you can see above, the Giants are only showing a 4 cent advantage in the TARP line despite the predicted loss by a run. Why would I play the Giants then? Their pitching/defense has excelled in 7 of their last 9 games. Their defensive adjustment is at -1.3 rpg overall (-1.0 when you factor in strength of schedule), and -0.5 rpg in Tim Lincecum's starts versus Milwaukee's -0.1 rpg overall (-0.6) and -0.8 in Nelson's starts. The offense favors the Brewers slightly but overall this looks like an even game based on all the information (SF is 4-1 L5 and MIL is 2-5 L7) so I'll take the +129 dog price.
Kansas City -129 (1 unit to win 0.78)
This game is much more in our favor. Royals have all the numbers going for them and a nice overlay price that is just cheap enough of a road favorite to still have decent value. KC is 9-3 L12
YTD: +0.00 units (@ 1 unit each)
Tonight's matchups showing the offensive and defensive TARP numbers, the projected runs scored, the "real" line, and the actual line:
| OFF | DEF | RUNS | rLNE | aLNE | |||
| Miami | -0.3 | -1.2 | 4.1 | -123 | 113 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 113 | -123 | ||
| NY Mets | -1.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 367 | 143 | ||
| Washington | 0.0 | -1.9 | 4.0 | -377 | -153 | ||
| San Francisco | -0.1 | -0.5 | 3.3 | 125 | 129 | ||
| Milwaukee | 0.6 | -0.8 | 4.3 | -135 | -139 | ||
| Chi Cubs | 0.7 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 105 | 130 | ||
| Colorado | -0.2 | 0.2 | 5.6 | -115 | -140 | ||
| Detroit | 0.2 | -2.1 | 3.7 | -174 | -114 | ||
| NY Yankees | 0.1 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 164 | 104 | ||
| Baltimore | 0.1 | -0.9 | 5.2 | -138 | -102 | ||
| Toronto | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 128 | -108 | ||
| Texas | -0.8 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 152 | 101 | ||
| Chi WhSox | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6.7 | -162 | -111 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 1.2 | 0.0 | 6.4 | -159 | 120 | ||
| Oakland | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 149 | -130 | ||
| Houston | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.4 | -149 | -103 | ||
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 139 | -107 | ||
| Cincinnati | -1.1 | -1.3 | 3.7 | 103 | 111 | ||
| Cleveland | 1.2 | 0.7 | 4.0 | -113 | -121 | ||
| San Diego | 0.7 | -2.1 | 4.7 | -142 | 121 | ||
| Minnesota | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 132 | -131 | ||
| Boston | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 149 | 141 | ||
| St. Louis | 0.8 | -0.9 | 5.8 | -159 | -151 | ||
| Kansas City | 0.2 | -1.5 | 4.9 | -181 | -128 | ||
| Arizona | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 171 | 118 | ||
| LA Angels | 0.2 | -1.8 | 1.0 | 228 | 205 | ||
| LA Dodgers | -0.1 | -3.4 | 2.3 | -238 | -225 | ||
| Atlanta | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 277 | 157 | ||
| Seattle | -0.6 | -3.1 | 3.3 | -287 | -167 | ||
Tonight's plays
San Francisco +128 (1 unit to win 1.28)
As you can see above, the Giants are only showing a 4 cent advantage in the TARP line despite the predicted loss by a run. Why would I play the Giants then? Their pitching/defense has excelled in 7 of their last 9 games. Their defensive adjustment is at -1.3 rpg overall (-1.0 when you factor in strength of schedule), and -0.5 rpg in Tim Lincecum's starts versus Milwaukee's -0.1 rpg overall (-0.6) and -0.8 in Nelson's starts. The offense favors the Brewers slightly but overall this looks like an even game based on all the information (SF is 4-1 L5 and MIL is 2-5 L7) so I'll take the +129 dog price.
Kansas City -129 (1 unit to win 0.78)
This game is much more in our favor. Royals have all the numbers going for them and a nice overlay price that is just cheap enough of a road favorite to still have decent value. KC is 9-3 L12
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