COVERING THE NFL - W8

Last week:  3-2

Similar to Week 6, I split my two sides and won the teaser in Week 7. I'm now 12-10 (55%) on sides and 4-2 (67%) on teasers. I stated before the season started that I would be expanding my repertoire to increase the number of plays I made. For the prior 8 seasons (only three of which are documented in my career record below) I had been extremely selective in my plays although my lesser plays have almost always been profitable as well. I finally decided I'd rather try to make more money with more plays in a sport I have a strong handle on than just play it safe and only play the high percentage picks. I'm on pace for around 75 picks this year which would be the most I've had in ten years. I could still even loosen the rope a little more next year and exceed 100 plays but I'm fine where I'm at now for this season. I'm on pace for around 9 units of profit at 1 unit per game, which is a very solid NFL season.


Documented forum record:

Career:  366-284-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  345-273-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  19-11  (63%).....avg line:  -109
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  16-12-0  (57%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  16-19-0  (46%)  picks: SF,CLE,NYJ,DAL,IND


Week 8 picks

Detroit +3 +103
Houston -3 -135

Dallas +5 -108

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W7

Last week:  4-3

Split my three sides last week and won the teaser. I'm now 10-8 in sides and 3-2 in teasers. On a 10-5 run in the LVH SuperContest after another 3-2 week. Could have been a little better even seeing how I got back-doored by the Colts on Sunday night and lost by a half point. I also lost a side wager on Detroit by a half point and won the Browns game by one point. I already won the Seattle game in the LVH contest played on Thursday night.

*It has come to my attention that my post scheduler here on the blog is not working properly, releasing these posts sometime on Sunday afternoon. I will just release manually from now on. You'll have to check in here before kickoff on Sunday, though, as the emails only get released every evening which arrive in your inbox after most of the action is done. This is very challenging for me due to other weekend commitments to do these writeups before the wee hours Saturday night/Sunday morning so bear with me. In fact, it would be nice to hear from some of you who receive these posts on email to send me a simple shout back if you can just so I know people are reading. I'd hate to do this for nothing since my weekends are already insane (it's 6am right now and I haven't gone to bed yet). Hope you understand! I'll gladly keep doing this if people read it.


Documented forum record:

Career:  363-282-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  343-271-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  18-11  (63%).....avg line:  -109
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  13-10-0  (57%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  14-16-0  (47%)  picks: SEA,BUF,KC,WAS,DAL


Here is my Week 7 rankings based on comparing each team to above or below an average team:

		OVERALL VERSUS AN AVERAGE TEAM
#		Team	W	L	+/-
1		New England	5	0	13.9
2		NY Jets	4	1	9.8
3		Arizona	4	2	9.0
4		Pittsburgh	4	2	7.6
5		Cincinnati	6	0	7.4
6		Philadelphia	3	3	6.1
7		Green Bay	6	0	5.1
8		Atlanta	5	1	3.8
9		Buffalo	3	3	3.8
10		Carolina	5	0	3.2
11		Seattle	2	4	3.0
12		Denver	6	0	1.9
13		Washington	2	4	0.1
14		St. Louis	2	3	0.0
15		NY Giants	3	3	-0.2
16		Dallas	2	3	-0.8
17		San Diego	2	4	-1.3
18		New Orleans	2	4	-1.9
19		Minnesota	3	2	-2.0
20		Baltimore	1	5	-2.1
21		Cleveland	2	4	-2.5
22		Miami	2	3	-2.7
23		Indianapolis	3	3	-2.9
24		Kansas City	1	5	-2.9
25		Oakland	2	3	-3.4
26		San Francisco	2	4	-4.6
27		Tennessee	1	4	-6.3
28		Houston	2	4	-6.8
29		Detroit	1	5	-7.2
30		Chicago	2	4	-7.6
31		Jacksonville	1	5	-9.3
32		Tampa Bay	2	3	-11.1

This means New England has performed 13.9 points better than an average team and lead the NFL by a decent margin. The Jets, who rank 2nd and visit Foxboro this weekend, are at 9.8, so you can deduce that the Patriots should be favored by 4.1 points plus home-field advantage over the Jets. I usually add 3 points for home field (it can vary slightly depending on the team) so NE should be roughly -7. The current line as of post is -7.5 which came down a lot from the opening line of -10 and rightfully so.

The Patriots boast the top offense at +12.8 points better than an average team, the Cardinals are 2nd at +8.4 and Falcons 3rd at +6.0. The Steelers rank #1 in defense giving up 7.3 points less than an average team would, followed by the Jets 2nd at 6.6 and Broncos 3rd at 4.3.

Taking these numbers above and accentuating recent games into the overall mix brings me to these point spreads for Week 7:

			act	S1		S3
Seattle			-6.5	-2.3		-7.4
San Francisco			6.5	2.3		7.4
Buffalo			-4.5	-2.6		-9.6
Jacksonville			4.5	2.6		9.6
Tampa Bay			3.0	9.9		14.9
Washington			-3.0	-9.9		-14.9
Atlanta			-6.0	-1.4		-6.7
Tennessee			6.0	1.4		6.7
New Orleans			4.0	3.3		3.8
Indianapolis			-4.0	-3.3		-3.8
Minnesota			-1.5	1.3		-0.9
Detroit			1.5	-1.3		0.9
Pittsburgh			2.5	-3.1		-7.7
Kansas City			-2.5	3.1		7.7
Cleveland			6.5	4.7		5.4
St. Louis			-6.5	-4.7		-5.4
Houston			5.0	4.1		6.2
Miami			-5.0	-4.1		-6.2
NY Jets			7.5	4.5		6.5
New England			-7.5	-4.5		-6.5
Oakland			4.0	5.0		5.8
San Diego			-4.0	-5.0		-5.8
Dallas			3.5	3.7		3.1
NY Giants			-3.5	-3.7		-3.1
Philadelphia			3.0	0.8		-0.7
Carolina			-3.0	-0.8		0.7
Baltimore			8.0	8.7		14.4
Arizona			-8.0	-8.7		-14.4

I show three lines. The first is the actual line, the second (S1) is a line derived from turnovers, sacks and penalties and the third (S3, which is the one I emphasize the most, is based on the scoring numbers in the rankings, neutralized for strength of schedule. So the team that has the largest differential from the actual line to S3 is Washington. My numbers say they should be favored by -14.9 points at home but they're only -3....an 11.9 differential. I played Washington in the LVH contest but I'm not high enough on them for my official money picks due to some slight conflicting situational data.

On to the picks for W7.....


Kansas City -3 +104

This situation sets up well for KC. They still have talent on this team despite losing Charles for the season.


NY Jets +7.5 -108

Still too many points to give a 4-1 division rival. This is a motivating test for the Jets. Pats are always motivated too, though.



Detroit +2 -105

Maybe the start of a mini run for the Lions?


Dallas +3 +100


Both teams ranked in the middle of the pack but Dallas has more upside once the offense gets healthy to match a strong defense. Cowboys have had a bye to figure out Eli and the Giants but after last week's dismal showing in Philadelphia, it's the Giants who need to figure things out.


7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120

Arizona -3
Over 42.5

Back to back losses for the Cardinals and now they return home on Monday Night. A good spot to bounce back against the Ravens who are ready to mail in their season. I expect plenty of scoring as well.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W6

Last week:  3-1

Good week going 3-1 (2-1 in sides, 1-0 in teasers) and 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest. I'm now 7-5 in sides on the season and 2-2 in teasers.


Documented forum record:

Career:  359-279-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  340-268-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  17-11  (61%).....avg line:  -107
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  9-7-0  (56%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  11-14-0  (44%)  picks: HOU,MIA,PIT,WAS,NE


Week 6

Cleveland +4 -116

Browns have been a tough out most of the season, especially at home and Denver is a little banged up and overachieving to be 5-0. Their defense has saved their bacon on several occasions.

Buffalo +3 -101

Rex will have his troops ready to play at Orchard Park. Bengals, and specifically Andy Dalton, look different this year. I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop all year but they pulled out a great come-from-behind win over the Seahawks last week. Still, I like the home dog, which plays well in that stadium.

Detroit -3.5 -108

After several near misses, I think this is the week the Lions finally get it right. The situation sets up: at home versus a division rival that is vulnerable.

NY Jets -7 +103
Arizona -3.5 -109

Observant readers will notice I picked opposite on these two games in the SuperContest. Yep, I'm screwed. This is a rare combination of the early deadline in the contest (I submit my picks to Vegas on Friday afternoon), combined with this being a weak week for situational analysis (I was forced to go with minor situations on Washington and Pittsburgh for the contest) and on Saturday other key information came in to put me on the opposite side strongly enough to play them now (as I only play my strongest picks). This has not happened before and suddenly it happens twice in the same week. Most likely, these two games will split but I am obviously much more confident in the two here that I put my money on.

Miami +2 -108

New coach, new culture. It's not always the case but I see it here. The situation sets up well: a long layoff to make the changes after the overseas game against the Jets, time to reflect for some of the players under-performing (Suh, not to mention any names) and a weak opponent with a rookie quarterback that has been inconsistent. It's also a big opportunity for the Dolphins to try to save their season. If not now, when?


7.5-point teaser, ties reduce, -130

Green Bay -4
New England -2.5

Riding the two best teams in the NFL for a second straight week because GB is at home again and the Patriots oppose a team they want to beat as badly as anyone. I'm paying a lot more juice than I'd like to with the 7.5 points because I'm slightly concerned with the Packers as they have not been lighting it up lately but the Chargers are off a tough loss, so they could be thinking "If we can't win that game last week, how's it gonna go in Lambeau against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers"? Rodgers looks to rebound from 2 picks last week.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W5

Last week:  1-1

Split my two sides last week but had my first good week in the SuperContest, going 4-1 to climb to a fairly respectable 8-12. Three-quarters of the season left. I already lost the Thursday game this week in the contest with Houston not getting the job done, but lots of contestants picked Houston as well given the 4 points of line value due to Andrew Luck not playing (the contest was Houston -1 but the actual line climbed to -5). The Colts played a nearly flawless game, however, and won 27-20.


Documented forum record:

Career:  356-278-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  338-267-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  16-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  6-6-0  (50%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  8-12-0  (40%)  picks: HOU,JAC,CLE,ARI,SF


Week 5

Arizona -3 -115

Cardinals lost their first game of the season last week on home field. Look for them to bounce back against the tough-luck Lions.

Philadelphia -6 -108

Unrest is growing in Philadelphia with angry Eagles' fans calling radio shows to vent their frustrations over Chip Kelly's offense. They will correct this, though, and no better place to start than in front of those fans today against a Saints team allowing the most yards per play in the league.

San Diego -3.5 -108


This is the Monday nighter. Time for the Chargers to make everything right on the bright stage against Michael Vick and the Steelers. Vick was mostly ineffective in the Steelers' last loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has been respectable overall without Roethlisberger but I don't see them keeping up with Philip Rivers and San Diego's passing attack in this one.

7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120

Green Bay -3
New England -3

Packers at home where Rodgers is an absolute machine and Brady and the Patriots off a bye in Dallas. Pats are 11-3 off a bye in the Brady/Belichick era but, then again, the Patriots have won 76% of all games in any situation.

Future

Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W4

Last week:  3-1

Off to a nightmare start in the SuperContest. Considering my actual side wagers are 4-3, that means the extra eight picks I've added for the contest to satisfy the "five per week" requirement (which are still good picks judging from my history of tracking) have gone 0-8. That's hard to do. Long way to go, though. Couple of 5-0's would change everything.


Documented forum record:

Career:  355-277-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  337-266-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  16-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  5-5-0  (50%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  4-11-0  (27%)  picks: JAC,CHI,SF,STL,DET


Week 4

Cleveland +7 -125

Played this at 8am ET, and now the line has dropped to 5.5. I don't recommend taking anything less than a TD, so if it doesn't return to 7 at no more juice than -130, I would pass. Got juiced out on both of these plays today but I don't mind that once in awhile because by the end of the year my average juice will be more than reasonable overall.

San Francisco +8.5 -125

The 49ers fit several situational angles today as a big ugly home dog to the high-flying Packers. These teams have been going in different directions which always supplies added value in the line so, assuming a decent level of motivation and focus for the underdog, which I believe we'll have here, we should have a great chance to cover.



Future



Denver o10 wins -135

COVERING THE NFL - W3

Last week:  2-4

Not a great week as I went 2-2 on sides and lost both sides of my teaser, which I'm still a profitable 15-11 overall over the years.


Documented forum record:

Career:  352-276-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  335-265-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  15-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  2-4-0  (33%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  3-7-0  (30%)  picks: STL,NE,CLE,CHI,SF


Week 3

New England -14 -101

Not usually my style to pick double-digit favorites as most teams would let down against Jacksonville. The Patriots don't let down against anybody. Belichick always gives his team a healthy fear of any opponent.

Chicago +14.5 -109

More my style here as the Bears fit a situation that has been 61-40 ats for me in the history of my specific situational analysis. Seahawks will surely win but I'm looking to be aided by all those points and a heavy dose of Matt Forte.



10-point teaser, ties reduce, -115

New England -4.5
Indianapolis +6.5
Seattle -5.5


Future
Denver o10 wins -135

Since the first half of yesterday's teaser wager lost, I am starting a new teaser with the other half, Indianapolis, tonight and leaving it open to fill next weekend.


6-point teaser, ties win, -105

Indianapolis -1
Open