Sunday, October 18, 2015

COVERING THE NFL - W6

Last week:  3-1

Good week going 3-1 (2-1 in sides, 1-0 in teasers) and 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest. I'm now 7-5 in sides on the season and 2-2 in teasers.


Documented forum record:

Career:  359-279-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  340-268-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  17-11  (61%).....avg line:  -107
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  9-7-0  (56%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  11-14-0  (44%)  picks: HOU,MIA,PIT,WAS,NE


Week 6

Cleveland +4 -116

Browns have been a tough out most of the season, especially at home and Denver is a little banged up and overachieving to be 5-0. Their defense has saved their bacon on several occasions.

Buffalo +3 -101

Rex will have his troops ready to play at Orchard Park. Bengals, and specifically Andy Dalton, look different this year. I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop all year but they pulled out a great come-from-behind win over the Seahawks last week. Still, I like the home dog, which plays well in that stadium.

Detroit -3.5 -108

After several near misses, I think this is the week the Lions finally get it right. The situation sets up: at home versus a division rival that is vulnerable.

NY Jets -7 +103
Arizona -3.5 -109

Observant readers will notice I picked opposite on these two games in the SuperContest. Yep, I'm screwed. This is a rare combination of the early deadline in the contest (I submit my picks to Vegas on Friday afternoon), combined with this being a weak week for situational analysis (I was forced to go with minor situations on Washington and Pittsburgh for the contest) and on Saturday other key information came in to put me on the opposite side strongly enough to play them now (as I only play my strongest picks). This has not happened before and suddenly it happens twice in the same week. Most likely, these two games will split but I am obviously much more confident in the two here that I put my money on.

Miami +2 -108

New coach, new culture. It's not always the case but I see it here. The situation sets up well: a long layoff to make the changes after the overseas game against the Jets, time to reflect for some of the players under-performing (Suh, not to mention any names) and a weak opponent with a rookie quarterback that has been inconsistent. It's also a big opportunity for the Dolphins to try to save their season. If not now, when?


7.5-point teaser, ties reduce, -130

Green Bay -4
New England -2.5

Riding the two best teams in the NFL for a second straight week because GB is at home again and the Patriots oppose a team they want to beat as badly as anyone. I'm paying a lot more juice than I'd like to with the 7.5 points because I'm slightly concerned with the Packers as they have not been lighting it up lately but the Chargers are off a tough loss, so they could be thinking "If we can't win that game last week, how's it gonna go in Lambeau against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers"? Rodgers looks to rebound from 2 picks last week.



Future

Denver o10 wins -135

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