COVERING THE NFL - W7
Last week: 4-3
Split my three sides last week and won the teaser. I'm now 10-8 in sides and 3-2 in teasers. On a 10-5 run in the LVH SuperContest after another 3-2 week. Could have been a little better even seeing how I got back-doored by the Colts on Sunday night and lost by a half point. I also lost a side wager on Detroit by a half point and won the Browns game by one point. I already won the Seattle game in the LVH contest played on Thursday night.
*It has come to my attention that my post scheduler here on the blog is not working properly, releasing these posts sometime on Sunday afternoon. I will just release manually from now on. You'll have to check in here before kickoff on Sunday, though, as the emails only get released every evening which arrive in your inbox after most of the action is done. This is very challenging for me due to other weekend commitments to do these writeups before the wee hours Saturday night/Sunday morning so bear with me. In fact, it would be nice to hear from some of you who receive these posts on email to send me a simple shout back if you can just so I know people are reading. I'd hate to do this for nothing since my weekends are already insane (it's 6am right now and I haven't gone to bed yet). Hope you understand! I'll gladly keep doing this if people read it.
Documented forum record:
Career: 363-282-19 (56%) ATS
Breakdown:
Sides: 343-271-19 (56%).....avg line: -108
Teasers: 18-11 (63%).....avg line: -109
Futures: 2-0 (100%).....avg line: -125
2002: 58-47-4 (55%)
2003: 32-23-1 (58%)
2004: 58-64-1 (48%)
2005: 48-34-3 (59%)
2006: 34-29-3 (54%)
2007: 34-24-4 (59%)
2012: 31-19-2 (62%)
2013: 26-11-1 (70%)
2014: 29-21-0 (58%)
2015: 13-10-0 (57%)
Las Vegas SuperContest (not included in handicapping record)
2014: 51-34-0 (60%) finished 78 out of 1,403
2015: 14-16-0 (47%) picks: SEA,BUF,KC,WAS,DAL
Here is my Week 7 rankings based on comparing each team to above or below an average team:
This means New England has performed 13.9 points better than an average team and lead the NFL by a decent margin. The Jets, who rank 2nd and visit Foxboro this weekend, are at 9.8, so you can deduce that the Patriots should be favored by 4.1 points plus home-field advantage over the Jets. I usually add 3 points for home field (it can vary slightly depending on the team) so NE should be roughly -7. The current line as of post is -7.5 which came down a lot from the opening line of -10 and rightfully so.
Last week: 4-3
Split my three sides last week and won the teaser. I'm now 10-8 in sides and 3-2 in teasers. On a 10-5 run in the LVH SuperContest after another 3-2 week. Could have been a little better even seeing how I got back-doored by the Colts on Sunday night and lost by a half point. I also lost a side wager on Detroit by a half point and won the Browns game by one point. I already won the Seattle game in the LVH contest played on Thursday night.
*It has come to my attention that my post scheduler here on the blog is not working properly, releasing these posts sometime on Sunday afternoon. I will just release manually from now on. You'll have to check in here before kickoff on Sunday, though, as the emails only get released every evening which arrive in your inbox after most of the action is done. This is very challenging for me due to other weekend commitments to do these writeups before the wee hours Saturday night/Sunday morning so bear with me. In fact, it would be nice to hear from some of you who receive these posts on email to send me a simple shout back if you can just so I know people are reading. I'd hate to do this for nothing since my weekends are already insane (it's 6am right now and I haven't gone to bed yet). Hope you understand! I'll gladly keep doing this if people read it.
Documented forum record:
Career: 363-282-19 (56%) ATS
Breakdown:
Sides: 343-271-19 (56%).....avg line: -108
Teasers: 18-11 (63%).....avg line: -109
Futures: 2-0 (100%).....avg line: -125
2002: 58-47-4 (55%)
2003: 32-23-1 (58%)
2004: 58-64-1 (48%)
2005: 48-34-3 (59%)
2006: 34-29-3 (54%)
2007: 34-24-4 (59%)
2012: 31-19-2 (62%)
2013: 26-11-1 (70%)
2014: 29-21-0 (58%)
2015: 13-10-0 (57%)
Las Vegas SuperContest (not included in handicapping record)
2014: 51-34-0 (60%) finished 78 out of 1,403
2015: 14-16-0 (47%) picks: SEA,BUF,KC,WAS,DAL
Here is my Week 7 rankings based on comparing each team to above or below an average team:
| OVERALL VERSUS AN AVERAGE TEAM | |||||
| # | Team | W | L | +/- | |
| 1 | New England | 5 | 0 | 13.9 | |
| 2 | NY Jets | 4 | 1 | 9.8 | |
| 3 | Arizona | 4 | 2 | 9.0 | |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 2 | 7.6 | |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 6 | 0 | 7.4 | |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 3 | 3 | 6.1 | |
| 7 | Green Bay | 6 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 8 | Atlanta | 5 | 1 | 3.8 | |
| 9 | Buffalo | 3 | 3 | 3.8 | |
| 10 | Carolina | 5 | 0 | 3.2 | |
| 11 | Seattle | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | |
| 12 | Denver | 6 | 0 | 1.9 | |
| 13 | Washington | 2 | 4 | 0.1 | |
| 14 | St. Louis | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | |
| 15 | NY Giants | 3 | 3 | -0.2 | |
| 16 | Dallas | 2 | 3 | -0.8 | |
| 17 | San Diego | 2 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| 18 | New Orleans | 2 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| 19 | Minnesota | 3 | 2 | -2.0 | |
| 20 | Baltimore | 1 | 5 | -2.1 | |
| 21 | Cleveland | 2 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| 22 | Miami | 2 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| 23 | Indianapolis | 3 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| 24 | Kansas City | 1 | 5 | -2.9 | |
| 25 | Oakland | 2 | 3 | -3.4 | |
| 26 | San Francisco | 2 | 4 | -4.6 | |
| 27 | Tennessee | 1 | 4 | -6.3 | |
| 28 | Houston | 2 | 4 | -6.8 | |
| 29 | Detroit | 1 | 5 | -7.2 | |
| 30 | Chicago | 2 | 4 | -7.6 | |
| 31 | Jacksonville | 1 | 5 | -9.3 | |
| 32 | Tampa Bay | 2 | 3 | -11.1 | |
This means New England has performed 13.9 points better than an average team and lead the NFL by a decent margin. The Jets, who rank 2nd and visit Foxboro this weekend, are at 9.8, so you can deduce that the Patriots should be favored by 4.1 points plus home-field advantage over the Jets. I usually add 3 points for home field (it can vary slightly depending on the team) so NE should be roughly -7. The current line as of post is -7.5 which came down a lot from the opening line of -10 and rightfully so.
The Patriots boast the top offense at +12.8 points better than an average team, the Cardinals are 2nd at +8.4 and Falcons 3rd at +6.0. The Steelers rank #1 in defense giving up 7.3 points less than an average team would, followed by the Jets 2nd at 6.6 and Broncos 3rd at 4.3.
I show three lines. The first is the actual line, the second (S1) is a line derived from turnovers, sacks and penalties and the third (S3, which is the one I emphasize the most, is based on the scoring numbers in the rankings, neutralized for strength of schedule. So the team that has the largest differential from the actual line to S3 is Washington. My numbers say they should be favored by -14.9 points at home but they're only -3....an 11.9 differential. I played Washington in the LVH contest but I'm not high enough on them for my official money picks due to some slight conflicting situational data.
Taking these numbers above and accentuating recent games into the overall mix brings me to these point spreads for Week 7:
| act | S1 | S3 | ||||
| Seattle | -6.5 | -2.3 | -7.4 | |||
| San Francisco | 6.5 | 2.3 | 7.4 | |||
| Buffalo | -4.5 | -2.6 | -9.6 | |||
| Jacksonville | 4.5 | 2.6 | 9.6 | |||
| Tampa Bay | 3.0 | 9.9 | 14.9 | |||
| Washington | -3.0 | -9.9 | -14.9 | |||
| Atlanta | -6.0 | -1.4 | -6.7 | |||
| Tennessee | 6.0 | 1.4 | 6.7 | |||
| New Orleans | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | |||
| Indianapolis | -4.0 | -3.3 | -3.8 | |||
| Minnesota | -1.5 | 1.3 | -0.9 | |||
| Detroit | 1.5 | -1.3 | 0.9 | |||
| Pittsburgh | 2.5 | -3.1 | -7.7 | |||
| Kansas City | -2.5 | 3.1 | 7.7 | |||
| Cleveland | 6.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | |||
| St. Louis | -6.5 | -4.7 | -5.4 | |||
| Houston | 5.0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | |||
| Miami | -5.0 | -4.1 | -6.2 | |||
| NY Jets | 7.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | |||
| New England | -7.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | |||
| Oakland | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | |||
| San Diego | -4.0 | -5.0 | -5.8 | |||
| Dallas | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | |||
| NY Giants | -3.5 | -3.7 | -3.1 | |||
| Philadelphia | 3.0 | 0.8 | -0.7 | |||
| Carolina | -3.0 | -0.8 | 0.7 | |||
| Baltimore | 8.0 | 8.7 | 14.4 | |||
| Arizona | -8.0 | -8.7 | -14.4 | |||
I show three lines. The first is the actual line, the second (S1) is a line derived from turnovers, sacks and penalties and the third (S3, which is the one I emphasize the most, is based on the scoring numbers in the rankings, neutralized for strength of schedule. So the team that has the largest differential from the actual line to S3 is Washington. My numbers say they should be favored by -14.9 points at home but they're only -3....an 11.9 differential. I played Washington in the LVH contest but I'm not high enough on them for my official money picks due to some slight conflicting situational data.
On to the picks for W7.....
Kansas City -3 +104
This situation sets up well for KC. They still have talent on this team despite losing Charles for the season.
NY Jets +7.5 -108
Still too many points to give a 4-1 division rival. This is a motivating test for the Jets. Pats are always motivated too, though.
Detroit +2 -105
Maybe the start of a mini run for the Lions?
Dallas +3 +100
Both teams ranked in the middle of the pack but Dallas has more upside once the offense gets healthy to match a strong defense. Cowboys have had a bye to figure out Eli and the Giants but after last week's dismal showing in Philadelphia, it's the Giants who need to figure things out.
7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120
Arizona -3
Over 42.5
Back to back losses for the Cardinals and now they return home on Monday Night. A good spot to bounce back against the Ravens who are ready to mail in their season. I expect plenty of scoring as well.
Future
Denver o10 wins -135
Kansas City -3 +104
This situation sets up well for KC. They still have talent on this team despite losing Charles for the season.
NY Jets +7.5 -108
Still too many points to give a 4-1 division rival. This is a motivating test for the Jets. Pats are always motivated too, though.
Detroit +2 -105
Maybe the start of a mini run for the Lions?
Dallas +3 +100
Both teams ranked in the middle of the pack but Dallas has more upside once the offense gets healthy to match a strong defense. Cowboys have had a bye to figure out Eli and the Giants but after last week's dismal showing in Philadelphia, it's the Giants who need to figure things out.
7-point teaser, ties reduce, -120
Arizona -3
Over 42.5
Back to back losses for the Cardinals and now they return home on Monday Night. A good spot to bounce back against the Ravens who are ready to mail in their season. I expect plenty of scoring as well.
Denver o10 wins -135
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