Tuesday, December 31, 2013

NHL

Yesterday: -1.37

An undeserved loss with Vancouver last night, who outshot Philly 44-27, lost the lead with :47 left and then lost the shootout. Blue number plays at the end of each matchup are 77-41 +31.69 units (1 unit each) and an ROI of 27%. Happy New Year.


YTD:  +2.20 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: +2 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -109
Winning % required to break even: 52.1%
Current YTD winning %: 53.1%

Favorites: 32-30 -5.69  (PL favs = 12-3 +8.63)
Underdogs: 18-12 +9.89  (PL dogs = 5-4 +1.65)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 61-43


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.02  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.49
Shots on goal per game: 31.4  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.2

Shooting percentage for: 9.6%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 15-13 (6-5 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Pittsburgh 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.8 1.5 3.4 1.0 1.6
New Jersey 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.5 0.8 3.8
NY Rangers 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 -1.1
Florida 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 2.0 1.2 -0.2
St. Louis 1.1 0.2 2.5 1.3 1.1 3.0 3.7 0.4 5.9
Minnesota 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 5.3 2.5 2.0 0.3 -1.8
NY Islanders 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.7 3.7 0.9 1.3 1.2 -6.4
Boston 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.7 -1.3
Montreal 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.2 1.6 0.2 4.6
Carolina 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 -9.6
Buffalo 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.9 4.3 2.1 0.2 2.2 7.9
Winnipeg 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.8 -3.5
San Jose 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 5.0 0.0 2.3 0.2 -2.8
Anaheim 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 1.4 8.1
Los Angeles 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.4 4.0 15.0
Dallas 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.4 -4.2
Columbus 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.0 4.5
Colorado 0.3 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 -6.1
Edmonton 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 -5.9
Phoenix 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 -0.4
Philadelphia 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.0 1.1 0.3 0.8 2.7 -7.3
Calgary 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.9 0.7 0.2 1.5 6.7


Tonight's plays

St. Louis -130
Columbus +140
Phoenix -0.5 -120 (reg)

Monday, December 30, 2013

NHL

Yesterday: +1.45

Winnipeg pushes across the winning goal late in overtime for the 2-1 victory. OT games have turned around nicely at 15-12 after a 5-8 start.


YTD:  +3.57 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: 3.2%
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.16 units
Average money line: -108
Winning % required to break even: 52.0%
Current YTD winning %: 53.6%

Favorites: 32-29 -4.32  (PL favs = 12-3 +8.63)
Underdogs: 18-12 +9.89  (PL dogs = 5-4 +1.65)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 61-42


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.02  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.48
Shots on goal per game: 31.3  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.2

Shooting percentage for: 9.7%
Shooting percentage against: 9.1%

Overtime results: 15-12 (6-5 ot/9-7 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Washington 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.1 0.1 0.3 -3.8
Ottawa 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.7 0.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 -10.3
Detroit 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.3 3.1 3.7 1.9 0.2
Nashville 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.3 2.6 1.6 -5.1
Los Angeles 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.7 3.6 14.4
Chicago 1.8 0.1 1.8 0.7 4.2 4.0 4.5 1.2 4.0
Philadelphia 0.5 0.7 1.7 0.3 1.7 1.6 2.6 3.2 -7.4
Vancouver 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.6 3.8 3.8 15.3


Tonight's play

Vancouver -137

Sunday, December 29, 2013

NHL

Yesterday: -2.14

Really bad beat with Anaheim last night, leading 2-0 with less than 5 minutes left. They lose the lead with :44 left, then come right back and win :51 into overtime but I still lose my wager because they didn't win in regulation. This marks the third time already I've lost a regulation wager that won SU in overtime, the only way this wager can hurt me. The way this wager benefits me, a 1-goal win in regulation (which is much more common), remarkably has yet to happen.


YTD:  +2.12 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: 1.9%
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.16 units
Average money line: -109
Winning % required to break even: 52.1%
Current YTD winning %: 53.1%

Favorites: 32-29 -4.32  (PL favs = 12-3 +8.63)
Underdogs: 17-12 +8.44  (PL dogs = 5-4 +1.65)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 60-42


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.03  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.49
Shots on goal per game: 31.2  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.1

Shooting percentage for: 9.7%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 14-12 (5-5 ot/9-7 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different statistical ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Montreal 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 3.9 1.3 0.5 0.7 4.7
Florida 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 2.6 1.3 -2.7
Washington 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 5.3 5.4 1.1 0.0 -6.4
Buffalo 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.6 1.6 8.1
Pittsburgh 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 2.4 1.3 2.6 0.8 0.0
Columbus 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.3 4.2
St. Louis 1.1 0.1 2.6 1.4 1.7 3.0 3.2 0.7 5.3
Dallas 0.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 3.8 1.5 1.1 -6.3
NY Rangers 0.8 0.4 2.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 3.3 1.7 -1.8
Tampa Bay 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 2.4 5.3
Carolina 0.1 0.0 0.7 3.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 -7.8
Toronto 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 4.4 3.7 1.0 1.1 -2.5
Vancouver 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.3 2.6 10.6
Calgary 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 3.3 1.2 0.7 1.6 7.1
Winnipeg 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 -4.0
Colorado 0.7 0.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.6 -10.4
NY Islanders 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 3.5 0.1 1.4 0.7 -3.9
Minnesota 0.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 4.9 1.1 1.8 0.8 2.9
Anaheim 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 3.5 1.7 9.0
San Jose 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 5.4 0.4 3.0 0.8 -4.3


Tonight's play

Winnipeg +145