Thursday, February 6, 2014

NBA

Friday: 3-2 +0.87

Had a winning day in NBA last Friday. Nothing tonight (only two games on the card) but I wanted to update the numbers and I'll resume tomorrow with some more detailed posts.


Year to date:  10-13  (44%)  -3.79 units  (@ 1 unit each)

Average money line:  -106


Nothing tonight
NHL

Saturday: 2-0 +2.00


YTD:  -0.43 units (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

ROI: -0.2 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.06 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -111
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 52.4%

Favorites: 56-55 -12.83  (PL favs = 22-16 +2.13)
Underdogs: 26-20 +11.40  (PL dogs = 8-4 +4.90)
Even money: 6-5 +1.00  (PL even = 4-0 +4.00)

SU record: 100-74
Pythagorean record: 100-74  (based on goal differential below)

Goals scored per game: 2.98  (would be 6th in NHL)
Goals allowed per game: 2.59  (goal diff. would be 7th in NHL)
Shots on goal per game: 31.8
Shots allowed per game: 27.8

Shooting percentage for: 9.3%
Shooting percentage against: 9.3%

Overtime games: 20-18 (11-8 ot/9-10 so)


Tonight's matchups showing how the teams compare in eight statistical evaluations which factor in strength of schedule (red numbers are negative) and also an overall number in blue at the end:

Calgary 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 2.7 1.1 1.4 -0.3
NY Islanders 0.1 0.2 1.6 2.1 4.5 1.1 1.5 1.0 -5.9
Winnipeg 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.8 2.3 0.1 5.5
Washington 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 1.3 -4.7
Edmonton 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 8.3 6.2 1.1 0.4 -11.5
NY Rangers 1.4 1.0 2.3 0.7 4.3 0.0 3.4 3.2 11.2
Colorado 0.5 0.1 1.1 1.9 6.0 4.6 3.5 0.8 -8.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.5 -2.0
Vancouver 1.3 0.4 1.6 1.0 2.1 0.6 4.0 1.2 -6.5
Montreal 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.3 1.2 0.6 5.1
Detroit 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 2.1 0.6 -5.0
Florida 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.3 1.0 0.4 -3.3
Toronto 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 8.2 5.6 3.5 0.1 -9.8
Tampa Bay 0.4 0.1 3.3 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.8 -2.0
Buffalo 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.0 6.6 3.4 1.0 1.2 -4.8
Ottawa 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.9 5.1 4.1 1.9 0.9 -6.7
Boston 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.5 4.3 0.4 1.6 0.6 1.3
St. Louis 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.7 3.4 2.8 1.4 0.5
Nashville 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 -4.8
Minnesota 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.8 4.8 0.3 2.6 1.0 4.2
Columbus 1.1 0.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.1 0.4 3.5
Los Angeles 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 5.0 5.0 4.5 1.2 7.3


Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -0.5 -130 (reg)
Winnipeg +111
Montreal -149
Boston +128
Minnesota -137

Friday, January 31, 2014

NBA

Wednesday: 0-1 -1.02

Still sorting through all the data on my spreadsheets. Eventually it will become clearer. My totals tracking has reached 9-9 on the season. I'm going to start playing them tonight. I will be out of town for the next several days so probably won't be posting till mid week.


Year to date:  7-11  (39%)  -4.66 units  (@ 1 unit each)

Average money line:  -106


POWER MATCHUPS
matchups power # pwr adv mov ytd mov rec mov diff pred line act line line diff
Milwaukee (13.78)   (9.4) (10.4)   8.4 6.0  
Orlando (11.86) 1.93 (1.3) (1.8) 0.6 -8.4 -6.0 2.4
Atlanta   0.62 9.49 (1.4) (0.5) 4.2 -10.0 -5.0 5.0
Philadelphia (8.87) (9.3) (12.6) 10.0 5.0
Memphis 8.24 0.78 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.3 -1.5  
Minnesota 7.47 7.9 7.1 -4.3 1.5 5.8
Oklahoma City 8.48 1.78 5.5 7.3   -5.4 -5.0 0.4
Brooklyn 6.71 (0.8) 2.8 1.8 5.4 5.0
Sacramento 2.26 1.06 (6.6) (6.9) 1.1 9.6 9.0  
Dallas 1.19 3.6 2.2 -9.6 -9.0 0.6
Toronto   3.62   2.0 1.0   1.0 1.5 0.5
Denver 4.99 1.37 2.0 3.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.5
Golden State 6.25 6.70 2.8 5.0   -5.5 -6.0  
Utah (0.45) (2.9) (0.3) 0.4 5.5 6.0 0.5
Charlotte (3.71) 3.53 (4.5) (7.7)   3.4 3.0  
LA Lakers (7.23) (1.2) (4.2) 0.2 -3.4 -3.0 0.4


Tonight's plays

Memphis -1.5 -108
Charlotte +3 -107
Bkn Under 198 -110
Uta Over 201 -103
Lal Over 205.5 -110
NHL

Yesterday: 2-3 -1.43


YTD:  -2.43 units (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

ROI: -1.2 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.06 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -110
Winning % required to break even: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 51.8%

Favorites: 54-55 -14.83  (PL favs = 21-16 +1.13)
Underdogs: 26-20 +11.40  (PL dogs = 8-4 +4.90)
Even money: 6-5 +1.00  (PL even = 4-0 +4.00)

SU record: 98-74
Pythagorean record: 97-75  (based on goal differential below)

Goals scored per game: 2.98  (would be 6th in NHL)
Goals allowed per game: 2.59  (goal diff. would be 7th in NHL)
Shots on goal per game: 31.8
Shots allowed per game: 27.8

Shooting percentage for: 9.3%
Shooting percentage against: 9.3%

Overtime games: 20-18 (11-8 ot/9-10 so)


Tonight's matchups showing how the teams compare in eight statistical evaluations which factor in strength of schedule (red numbers are negative) and also an overall number in blue at the end:

St. Louis 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 3.8 3.8 1.3 0.5 7.3
Carolina 0.2 0.4 2.0 1.6 3.8 0.7 0.3 1.2 1.4
NY Islanders 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 -4.0
NY Rangers 1.2 0.9 2.7 0.6 4.5 0.1 2.8 3.0 10.1
Washington 0.2 0.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
Detroit 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.2 3.3 0.3 1.0 -2.3
New Jersey 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 2.1 3.4 0.6 1.4 10.4
Nashville 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.2 -4.9
Vancouver 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.4 3.9 2.0 2.1 0.3 -4.6
Winnipeg 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.6


Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -0.5 -109 (reg)
Winnipeg -113

I will be out of town for the next several days so uncertain if I'll be able to post.