Sunday, September 28, 2014

NFL

Last week:  0-1


Documented forum record

Career:  322-252-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-1-0  (50%)  -$75


Breakdown:

ROI:  -7.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-1-0  (50%).....average price: -115


WEEK 4

Jacksonville +13 -118  ($590 to win $500)

An ugly duckling that is in a bounce back situation of 417-319-16 ats (57%, +66.1 units, 3.61 z-score, L5Y 55%, LY 68%, TY 75% (3-1)). Two of my dozen or so strong situational angles agree on this play. When that happens, the record is 67-38-3 ats (64%). Chargers are playing well right now and a 3-1 record is all but a certainty (could easily be 4-0) so human nature could make this feel a little too easy for San Diego.


Tampa Bay +7.5 -115  ($575 to win $500)

One of my strongest bounce back situations is on the Bucs at Pittsburgh. This situation is 58-14-3 ats since 1986 (81%, +42.6 units, 5.19 z-score, L5Y 81%, LY 50% (1-1), TY 0-0). Bucs got embarrassed on TNF last week and Steelers cruised on SNF. This won't be easy but looking for Tampa to play a lot better. Hopefully the extra few days of rest helped them straighten some things out.


Kansas City +??

Going to wait on the Chiefs line till closer to kickoff. Three of my situational angles agree. When that happens, the record is 17-3-1 ats (85%). Brady and the Pats are not yet clicking on offense and Brady's numbers have declined steadily the past several seasons. Beware the home dog on Monday Night Football.


10.5pt. teaser, ties reduce, +124  ($500 to win $620)

Chicago +11.5  (last Monday, WON)
Indianapolis +3
Tampa Bay +19.5
Kansas City +??

Keeping an open spot for the Chiefs until Monday. Right now the line is at +13.5.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: bye
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 12-4.....Next: W

Sunday, September 21, 2014

NFL

Last week:  1-0


Documented forum record

Career:  322-251-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-0-0  (100%)  +$500


Breakdown:

ROI:  +87.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-0-0  (100%).....average price: -115


WEEK 3

10pt. teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans -0.5
San Francisco +7
Indianapolis +3

Really do not like this Week 3 card at all. I have conflicting data and situational angles on each side of quite a few matchups. Minnesota was my strong preliminary play but I'm not going against a hungry Saints team in their home opener. In this case, it's best to pass and wait for opportunities of greater value next week. In the meantime, I'll post up my second teaser of the season.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Projected record: 13-3.....Next: L
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Projected record: 12-4.....Next: W
 

Sunday, September 14, 2014

NFL

Documented forum record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Week 1: 0-0


Week 2:

10 pt teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans +3.5
New England +7
Indianapolis +7

I went 5-2 in teasers last year as you can see in my breakdown in blue above. Never played them much before that but I'll have more of them this year. They can be really strong wagers if you're smart about them and they only cost a few cents more than a standard Vegas wager. I put this one in on Friday before the Peterson news but I would also back the Patriots at the current line (+4.5) if necessary.

Andrew Luck has never lost back to back games in his young career (10-0 su, 9-0-1 ats). Since 2003, Tom Brady is 27-9 ats (75%) after a loss, 17-3 on the road (85%) and 9-1 as a road favorite of less than 7. Drew Brees is 21-8 ats (72%) following a loss since 2008, only 6-5 on the road (lost 3 straight) but 3-1 as a road favorite.

No ATS sides qualified in Week 2.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)
 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

NFL

Documented Talksport/Scoresline record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Preseason: 0-0


Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

I don't play Week 1 in the NFL but I have two season win total props to get things started. I am a New England native and have lived in Denver for the last 18 years so I know these two teams well. Both won 13 and 12 games respectively last season and both improved their teams by bolstering their defenses. Denver's offense is coming off a record-setting 2013 season. They will be without Welker for four games but add Sanders to offset that. Brady is in much better shape with his receiving corps than he was this time a year ago. Both teams are also plenty hungry with aging quarterbacks that force them to be in "win now" mode. Five units on each.

As far as the regular season plays, I will start in Week 2. I started posting late last year, thus only 38 games on record. I expect closer to 50 plays or so this season.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  2-3 +0.01

I was just mentioning regression to the mean yesterday regarding underdogs being 2-11 and favorites being 12-4 and wouldn't ya know dogs go 2-0 last night and favorites go 0-3. All in all, made a penny as two nice dog wins lower the average money line to -104.


YTD:  -2.57 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 34
ROI: -7.6 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.96 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -104
Winning % required to break even: 50.9%
Current YTD winning %: 47.1%

Favorites: 19 games, +3.14 units
Underdogs: 15 games, -5.71 units

Runs scored per game: 4.26
Runs allowed per game: 4.18  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

N/A


Today's selections

None

Nothing today. In fact, might have to cut baseball short this season as I have more incentive to do well in the upcoming NFL season and need the extra time to do some work in that sport. Plus, going to be in Vegas all week next week. Usually I go all the way to the end with baseball. This TARP baseball system is showing a profit of 23.73 units for the year in 436 games and a 6.1% ROI. I didn't get here to post until recently due to time restraints and only able to show 34 games for -2.57 units. I also do live baseball and soccer wagering during the days so I desperately need to free up some time. Best of luck.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-2 -2.00

Lost both games yesterday. Underdogs are now a mind-boggling 2-11 so far, which is usually the other way around in this system, and favorites are 12-4. Expect some regression to the mean.


YTD:  -2.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 29
ROI: -8.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 48.3%

Favorites: 16 games, +6.14 units
Underdogs: 13 games, -8.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 4.24  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

OFF DEF RUNS rLINE aLINE
Washington 0.6 -0.8 3.8 -128 -111
Philadelphia -0.2 -0.9 3.1 118 101
St. Louis 0.8 -1.3 2.6 135 121
Pittsburgh 0.8 -2.3 3.6 -145 -131
Tampa Bay -0.6 -2.3 2.3 138 103
Baltimore 1.4 -1.2 3.2 -148 -113
Boston 0.6 1.0 4.6 -110 140
Toronto -0.7 -0.1 4.4 100 -150
NY Yankees 0.0 -1.6 2.9 121 -107
Detroit 1.1 -1.2 3.6 -131 -103
Chi Cubs 0.2 0.9 3.5 101 163
Cincinnati -1.3 -0.8 3.7 -111 -173
Atlanta 0.6 -1.2 5.5 -191 -153
NY Mets 0.1 0.8 3.0 181 143
Oakland 0.2 1.1 3.8 126 -119
Houston -0.2 -0.5 5.0 -136 109
Minnesota 1.7 1.1 3.8 141 152
Kansas City 0.3 -2.0 5.5 -151 -162
Cleveland -0.5 -0.7 3.0 101 138
Chi WhSox -0.2 -0.6 3.2 -111 -148
LA Dodgers 0.2 -0.7 3.6 -135 -110
Arizona -0.6 -0.7 2.8 125 100
Miami 0.4 -0.2 3.0 121 161
LA Angels -0.1 -1.5 3.8 -131 -171
Texas -0.1 0.8 2.9 167 185
Seattle 0.2 -1.1 5.1 -177 -200
Milwaukee 1.7 0.8 4.1 99 110
San Diego -0.6 -1.7 4.3 -109 -120
Colorado 2.0 -0.3 5.3 -117 195
San Francisco 0.9 -0.8 4.7 107 -215


Today's selections

Washington -111
NY Yankees -107
Chi Cubs +163
Oakland -119
Cleveland +138

Two of these games have started due to my tardiness. Washington is 0-0 and NY Yankees are 1-0 as of post time.

Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Friday:  1-1 -0.22

Detroit lost 20-6 Friday night to the Minnesota Twins which helped bring my runs allowed from 3.44 to 4.11 along with the 5 that Miami allowed. It will take a little time to balance out that huge, disproportionate spike to the average but still a +0.48 average margin of victory overall.


YTD:  -0.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 27
ROI: -2.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 51.9%

Favorites: 15 games, +7.14 units
Underdogs: 12 games, -7.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.59
Runs allowed per game: 4.11  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .672
OPS allowed per game: .665  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

OFF DEF RUNS rLINE aLINE
Washington 0.8 -0.7 5.8 -202 -131
Philadelphia -0.4 0.9 3.0 192 121
St. Louis 0.8 0.2 4.3 114 135
Pittsburgh 0.8 -0.6 5.1 -124 -145
Milwaukee 1.3 0.6 4.6 -115 -132
San Diego -0.5 -0.8 4.2 105 122
Colorado 2.4 2.2 6.4 110 178
San Francisco 1.1 -0.1 7.4 -120 -188
Tampa Bay -0.5 -1.4 1.3 271 105
Baltimore 0.8 -2.3 3.5 -281 -115
Boston 0.6 0.7 4.1 101 105
Toronto -0.4 -0.6 4.4 -111 -115
Oakland 0.2 -0.4 5.8 -168 -163
Houston -0.1 1.5 3.6 158 153
NY Yankees -0.4 0.0 3.0 152 125
Kansas City 0.6 -0.7 4.7 -162 -135
Texas 0.0 0.6 4.0 127 155
Seattle 0.6 -0.1 5.3 -137 -165
Miami 0.3 -0.4 4.4 -122 154
LA Angels 0.1 0.0 3.8 112 -164


Today's selections

Washington -131
Tampa Bay +105