Sunday, December 14, 2014

NFL
Week 13:  1-0
Week 14:  1-1


Documented forum record

Overall:  339-265-19  (56%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  18-14-0  (56%)  +$1,510.....ROI:  +8.7%

Overall breakdown:
Sides:  326-258-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  13-7  (65%).....avg line:  -106



Week 15

Washington +7 -113  ($565 to win $500)

6-pt. teaser, ties win, -105  ($525 to win $500)
Indianapolis -1.5
Detroit -3

10-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)
Kansas City Pk
Baltimore -3.5
Seattle +0.5

This is the third consecutive challenging week in my opinion. Not a lot jumping off the page. Complimenting my one side with two teasers at standard odds, which I am 8-5 (63%) on this year and 13-7 in two years at -106 average odds.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

Thursday, November 27, 2014

NFL
Last week:  2-0


Documented forum record

Career:  337-264-19  (56%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  16-13-0  (55%)  +$1,270.....ROI:  +8.1%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  325-258-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  12-6  (67%).....avg line:  -106


On a 7-2 run the last three weeks. Took a while to get going this year. Five weeks left. Focused on finishing strong.

Below is my compilation of the NFL Rankings based on my "Skeleton System" project which looks at the framework of the offensive and defensive units, measuring the success of both in alternative metrics.

The number represents a percentage of how much above or below average each team is compared to an average team. The Broncos still lead the way playing at a 169% better capacity than an average team. I'm kind of surprised the Dolphins rank this high but they are the only team to rank in the top 5 in both offense and defense.

OVERALL

1 Denver 1.69
2 Green Bay 1.48
3 Miami 1.39
4 New England 1.23
5 Arizona 0.73
6 Seattle 0.70
7 Kansas City 0.65
8 Baltimore 0.62
9 Indianapolis 0.57
10 San Francisco 0.43
11 Detroit 0.40
12 Pittsburgh 0.29
13 Cleveland 0.18
14 New Orleans 0.14
15 Buffalo 0.12
16 Dallas 0.06
17 Houston -0.02
18 Philadelphia -0.09
19 San Diego -0.10
20 Cincinnati -0.20
21 NY Giants -0.23
22 Chicago -0.26
23 Minnesota -0.47
24 Carolina -0.62
25 St. Louis -0.86
26 Washington -0.95
27 Atlanta -0.97
28 Tampa Bay -1.03
29 Tennessee -1.06
30 NY Jets -1.07
31 Jacksonville -1.35
32 Oakland -1.40

The combined ATS records of the top 10 overall is 67-42-1 (61%)


OFFENSE

1 Denver 2.53
2 Green Bay 2.51
3 New England 2.14
4 New Orleans 2.03
5 Miami 1.77
6 Kansas City 1.72
7 Indianapolis 1.63
8 Pittsburgh 1.56
9 Seattle 1.52
10 Dallas 1.47

Although these measurements are for the entire offensive unit, it's no surprise the top 4 are led by Manning, Rodgers, Brady and Brees. An average offense would be a 1, so those four offensive units are performing at double the production. Dallas' offense, at tenth, is performing 47% better than average.


DEFENSE

1 Arizona 0.23
2 Detroit 0.27
3 Buffalo 0.29
4 Miami 0.38
5 San Francisco 0.39
6 Houston 0.71
7 Cleveland 0.73
8 Baltimore 0.74
9 Philadelphia 0.79
10 Seattle 0.82

Same setup for the defenses except the lower number, the better. The Cardinals lead the way with their defensive unit allowing only 23% of the production that an average D would. The Lions just got knocked out of first by losing 34-9 to the Patriots last week.


Week 13 Matchups
sit       act S1 S2 S3 S4
0.85 1.11 0 Chicago 7.0 5.0 4.2 7.2 5.5
0.67 0.27 0 Detroit   -7.0 -5.0 -4.2 -7.2 -5.5
0.70 0.79 0 Philadelphia 3.0 -0.3 -2.3 -2.3 -6.2
1.47 1.40 0 Dallas   -3.0 0.3 2.3 2.3 6.2
1.52 0.82 0 Seattle 1.5 -1.1 2.9 -7.6 0.4
0.82 0.39 0 San Francisco -1.5 1.1 -2.9 7.6 -0.4
0.64 1.60 1 Washington 10.5 10.6 9.7 16.7 14.8
1.63 1.06 -1 Indianapolis -10.5 -10.6 -9.7 -16.7 -14.8
0.40 1.47 1 Tennessee 7.0 9.4 9.3 13.0 12.9
0.69 0.71 -1 Houston   -7.0 -9.4 -9.3 -13.0 -12.9
0.91 0.73 0 Cleveland 2.5 4.3 2.6 4.8 1.4
0.41 0.29 0 Buffalo   -2.5 -4.3 -2.6 -4.8 -1.4
1.40 1.50 0 San Diego 7.0 7.6 7.6 11.4 11.4
1.36 0.74 0 Baltimore   -7.0 -7.6 -7.6 -11.4 -11.4
1.05 1.28 -1 NY Giants -2.5 1.0 2.1 -0.2 2.1
-0.37 0.98 1 Jacksonville 2.5 -1.0 -2.1 0.2 -2.1
0.82 1.02 0 Cincinnati -3.5 -2.1 1.0 -4.7 1.5
0.21 1.24 0 Tampa Bay 3.5 2.1 -1.0 4.7 -1.5
-0.29 1.11 -1.5 Oakland 7.0 4.4 3.8 6.4 5.2
0.21 1.07 1.5 St. Louis   -7.0 -4.4 -3.8 -6.4 -5.2
2.03 1.89 0 New Orleans 4.5 2.7 8.7 4.3 11.2
1.56 1.28 0 Pittsburgh   -4.5 -2.7 -8.7 -4.3 -11.2
0.62 1.24 1 Carolina 2.5 7.4 6.8 11.3 10.1
0.44 0.91 -1 Minnesota -2.5 -7.4 -6.8 -11.3 -10.1
0.96 0.23 1.5 Arizona -2.5 -2.0 -4.9 -4.4 -10.2
1.04 2.01 -1.5 Atlanta   2.5 2.0 4.9 4.4 10.2
2.14 0.92 0 New England 3.0 2.1 8.8 0.6 10.2
2.51 1.03 0 Green Bay   -3.0 -2.1 -8.8 -0.6 -10.2
2.53 0.84 -1 Denver 0.0 4.5 -5.9 4.6 -16.1
1.72 1.07 1 Kansas City 0.0 -4.5 5.9 -4.6 16.1
1.77 0.38 0 Miami -7.5 -5.1 -7.6 -10.0 -15.0
0.18 1.26 0 NY Jets   7.5 5.1 7.6 10.0 15.0

The blue numbers on the left are the production numbers from above, then we've got the situational analysis (sit) graded 0-3, the actual line (act) and the four skeleton lines (S1-S4), which are four different opinions from the system on what the point spread should be.


SUNDAY'S BREAKDOWNS

0.64 1.60 1 Washington 10.5 10.6 9.7 16.7 14.8
1.63 1.06 -1 Indianapolis -10.5 -10.6 -9.7 -16.7 -14.8
The S1,S3 and S4 all show line value for the Colts but the sits grade out at a 1 (minor) for Wash. Indy is struggling a little, going 2-2 in their last four. They have a -0.75 average margin of victory (amov) in those four games but my work has them graded out at a -6.30 amov in the same games. Skins are trending very slightly better lately but not much. Pass.

0.40 1.47 1 Tennessee 7.0 9.4 9.3 13.0 12.9
0.69 0.71 -1 Houston   -7.0 -9.4 -9.3 -13.0 -12.9
Line value on Houston in all four lines but minor situational analysis on Tennessee. Houston is trending upward in this matchup but the sits wash that out. Was real close to picking the Titans in the supercontest because it's such a tough card this week but passed in the end.

0.91 0.73 0 Cleveland 2.5 4.3 2.6 4.8 1.4
0.41 0.29 0 Buffalo   -2.5 -4.3 -2.6 -4.8 -1.4
Back in their familiar home are the Bills after the snow was cleared away. These are both playoff bubble type teams so this should be hotly contested. BUF has small value on three of the four lines, but not enough. CLE is 6-2 L8. Pass.

1.40 1.50 0 San Diego 7.0 7.6 7.6 11.4 11.4
1.36 0.74 0 Baltimore   -7.0 -7.6 -7.6 -11.4 -11.4
Ravens have all four line values with the last two being 4.4 points. Baltimore is trending upward in this matchup for the most part. San Diego's only two decent wins have been against Seattle and Buffalo. The other five? Jaguars, Jets, Rams and Raiders twice. That's a 22-55 combined record for the seven opponents SD has beaten while losing to the Cardinals, Chiefs, Broncos and Dolphins, a combined 30-14. Lean: Baltimore

1.05 1.28 -1 NY Giants -2.5 1.0 2.1 -0.2 2.1
-0.37 0.98 1 Jacksonville 2.5 -1.0 -2.1 0.2 -2.1
Giants played well last week against the Cowboys but fell short 31-28. This line opened up at around -1.5 and bettors couldn't resist the low lay against the 1-10 Jags. So it is currently -2.5 (as of Wednesday night) and will undoubtedly reach -3 but I'm not seeing this as a great play for the G-men. Jags have the decent line value and a minor edge on the sits as well. This could be the Jags' 2nd win.

0.82 1.02 0 Cincinnati -3.5 -2.1 1.0 -4.7 1.5
0.21 1.24 0 Tampa Bay 3.5 2.1 -1.0 4.7 -1.5
The Bengals have won 4 of 5 although I have them as an overrated team (20th overall) despite their 7-4 record. Tampa shows the line edge in three of four skeleton lines (two of them significant enough). The upward trending is definitely going Tampa's way as well. Lean: Tampa Bay

-0.29 1.11 -1.5 Oakland 7.0 4.4 3.8 6.4 5.2
0.21 1.07 1.5 St. Louis   -7.0 -4.4 -3.8 -6.4 -5.2
The Rams have some fairly strong situational angles going their way. Nothing huge, but solid. The Raiders just won their Super Bowl last week on national TV, 24-20, against the Chiefs and I actually graded that game out to be the caliber of a 13-point win. Even with extra days to prepare I think they'll have a natural letdown traveling to the Edward Jones dome to play a non-conference road game. Oakland does have some small line value but I'm respecting the sits a little more here. Play: St. Louis

2.03 1.89 0 New Orleans 4.5 2.7 5.9 4.3 11.2
1.56 1.28 0 Pittsburgh   -4.5 -2.7 -5.9 -4.3 -11.2
Pitt has a nice edge on the S4 but otherwise pretty split. Steelers have also been trending upward in this matchup. Saints will be hungry after losing three straight but tough to win in Pittsburgh. Pass.

0.62 1.24 1 Carolina 2.5 7.4 6.8 11.3 10.1
0.44 0.91 -1 Minnesota -2.5 -7.4 -6.8 -11.3 -10.1
Line value and trending squarely on Minnesota but a minor sit category favoring Carolina. If I had to lean, I'd say Vikings but this is a pass for me.

0.96 0.23 1.5 Arizona -2.5 -2.0 -4.9 -4.4 -10.2
1.04 2.01 -1.5 Atlanta   2.5 2.0 4.9 4.4 10.2
Coming off a 16-point loss to the defending champs (that I graded out as a 6-point loss), the Cards look to regain momentum on the road against the 27th-ranked Falcons. Three skeleton lines showing value with the S4 being a significant 7.7 in added value. Throw in the fairly strong sit analysis at the 1.5 level and that's just enough for me to consider the 5th-ranked Cardinals, who have only lost to last year's two Super Bowl participants. We also have the NFL's best defense against the NFL's worst defense, with Atlanta surrendering twice as much production to opposing offenses as an average team would. Play: Arizona

2.14 0.92 0 New England 3.0 2.1 6.8 0.6 10.2
2.51 1.03 0 Green Bay   -3.0 -2.1 -6.8 -0.6 -10.2
This is a beastly matchup featuring two of the top 3 offenses in the league. In fact, New England has had the #1 and #3 offensive performances in the league this season based on the Skeleton System analysis against Indy and Chicago respectively. Pretty even matchup although the Pack have been trending upward more than the Pats. NE has won 7 straight and GB has won 7 of 8. Great game to sit back and enjoy. Pass.

2.53 0.84 -1 Denver 0.0 4.5 -5.9 4.6 -16.1
1.72 1.07 1 Kansas City 0.0 -4.5 5.9 -4.6 16.1
Line value is split, although the S4 favors Denver by 16.1 points on the road. Broncos have been trending also but Chiefs are at home in prime time, with a huge divisional game to electrify that crowd, and off a loss 10 days ago to the Raiders. KC also has a slight situational edge. Broncos are the better team but KC is in a better spot. Pass.

1.77 0.38 0 Miami -7.5 -5.1 -7.6 -10.0 -15.0
0.18 1.26 0 NY Jets   7.5 5.1 7.6 10.0 15.0
Dolphins coming off a tough loss to Denver 39-36 last week. As I mentioned earlier, I'm surprised I have Miami ranked 3rd overall but they have played excellent football; 139% better than average while the Jets are 30th at 107% below average. Geno Smith is back in at QB for NY, who may find it tough to reach double digits on Monday. Lean: Miami


MY PLAYS

10-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

Miami +2.5
Indianapolis -0.5
NE/GB o47.5

I actually don't like any sides strong enough that meet my standards. This is the toughest week in my opinion of the first thirteen. I have a strict selection method and nothing qualifies so I'm just playing a teaser for a little action.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)