Sunday, September 14, 2014

NFL

Documented forum record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Week 1: 0-0


Week 2:

10 pt teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans +3.5
New England +7
Indianapolis +7

I went 5-2 in teasers last year as you can see in my breakdown in blue above. Never played them much before that but I'll have more of them this year. They can be really strong wagers if you're smart about them and they only cost a few cents more than a standard Vegas wager. I put this one in on Friday before the Peterson news but I would also back the Patriots at the current line (+4.5) if necessary.

Andrew Luck has never lost back to back games in his young career (10-0 su, 9-0-1 ats). Since 2003, Tom Brady is 27-9 ats (75%) after a loss, 17-3 on the road (85%) and 9-1 as a road favorite of less than 7. Drew Brees is 21-8 ats (72%) following a loss since 2008, only 6-5 on the road (lost 3 straight) but 3-1 as a road favorite.

No ATS sides qualified in Week 2.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)
 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

NFL

Documented Talksport/Scoresline record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Preseason: 0-0


Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

I don't play Week 1 in the NFL but I have two season win total props to get things started. I am a New England native and have lived in Denver for the last 18 years so I know these two teams well. Both won 13 and 12 games respectively last season and both improved their teams by bolstering their defenses. Denver's offense is coming off a record-setting 2013 season. They will be without Welker for four games but add Sanders to offset that. Brady is in much better shape with his receiving corps than he was this time a year ago. Both teams are also plenty hungry with aging quarterbacks that force them to be in "win now" mode. Five units on each.

As far as the regular season plays, I will start in Week 2. I started posting late last year, thus only 38 games on record. I expect closer to 50 plays or so this season.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  2-3 +0.01

I was just mentioning regression to the mean yesterday regarding underdogs being 2-11 and favorites being 12-4 and wouldn't ya know dogs go 2-0 last night and favorites go 0-3. All in all, made a penny as two nice dog wins lower the average money line to -104.


YTD:  -2.57 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 34
ROI: -7.6 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.96 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -104
Winning % required to break even: 50.9%
Current YTD winning %: 47.1%

Favorites: 19 games, +3.14 units
Underdogs: 15 games, -5.71 units

Runs scored per game: 4.26
Runs allowed per game: 4.18  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

N/A


Today's selections

None

Nothing today. In fact, might have to cut baseball short this season as I have more incentive to do well in the upcoming NFL season and need the extra time to do some work in that sport. Plus, going to be in Vegas all week next week. Usually I go all the way to the end with baseball. This TARP baseball system is showing a profit of 23.73 units for the year in 436 games and a 6.1% ROI. I didn't get here to post until recently due to time restraints and only able to show 34 games for -2.57 units. I also do live baseball and soccer wagering during the days so I desperately need to free up some time. Best of luck.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-2 -2.00

Lost both games yesterday. Underdogs are now a mind-boggling 2-11 so far, which is usually the other way around in this system, and favorites are 12-4. Expect some regression to the mean.


YTD:  -2.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 29
ROI: -8.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 48.3%

Favorites: 16 games, +6.14 units
Underdogs: 13 games, -8.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 4.24  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

OFF DEF RUNS rLINE aLINE
Washington 0.6 -0.8 3.8 -128 -111
Philadelphia -0.2 -0.9 3.1 118 101
St. Louis 0.8 -1.3 2.6 135 121
Pittsburgh 0.8 -2.3 3.6 -145 -131
Tampa Bay -0.6 -2.3 2.3 138 103
Baltimore 1.4 -1.2 3.2 -148 -113
Boston 0.6 1.0 4.6 -110 140
Toronto -0.7 -0.1 4.4 100 -150
NY Yankees 0.0 -1.6 2.9 121 -107
Detroit 1.1 -1.2 3.6 -131 -103
Chi Cubs 0.2 0.9 3.5 101 163
Cincinnati -1.3 -0.8 3.7 -111 -173
Atlanta 0.6 -1.2 5.5 -191 -153
NY Mets 0.1 0.8 3.0 181 143
Oakland 0.2 1.1 3.8 126 -119
Houston -0.2 -0.5 5.0 -136 109
Minnesota 1.7 1.1 3.8 141 152
Kansas City 0.3 -2.0 5.5 -151 -162
Cleveland -0.5 -0.7 3.0 101 138
Chi WhSox -0.2 -0.6 3.2 -111 -148
LA Dodgers 0.2 -0.7 3.6 -135 -110
Arizona -0.6 -0.7 2.8 125 100
Miami 0.4 -0.2 3.0 121 161
LA Angels -0.1 -1.5 3.8 -131 -171
Texas -0.1 0.8 2.9 167 185
Seattle 0.2 -1.1 5.1 -177 -200
Milwaukee 1.7 0.8 4.1 99 110
San Diego -0.6 -1.7 4.3 -109 -120
Colorado 2.0 -0.3 5.3 -117 195
San Francisco 0.9 -0.8 4.7 107 -215


Today's selections

Washington -111
NY Yankees -107
Chi Cubs +163
Oakland -119
Cleveland +138

Two of these games have started due to my tardiness. Washington is 0-0 and NY Yankees are 1-0 as of post time.

Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Friday:  1-1 -0.22

Detroit lost 20-6 Friday night to the Minnesota Twins which helped bring my runs allowed from 3.44 to 4.11 along with the 5 that Miami allowed. It will take a little time to balance out that huge, disproportionate spike to the average but still a +0.48 average margin of victory overall.


YTD:  -0.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 27
ROI: -2.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 51.9%

Favorites: 15 games, +7.14 units
Underdogs: 12 games, -7.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.59
Runs allowed per game: 4.11  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .672
OPS allowed per game: .665  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

OFF DEF RUNS rLINE aLINE
Washington 0.8 -0.7 5.8 -202 -131
Philadelphia -0.4 0.9 3.0 192 121
St. Louis 0.8 0.2 4.3 114 135
Pittsburgh 0.8 -0.6 5.1 -124 -145
Milwaukee 1.3 0.6 4.6 -115 -132
San Diego -0.5 -0.8 4.2 105 122
Colorado 2.4 2.2 6.4 110 178
San Francisco 1.1 -0.1 7.4 -120 -188
Tampa Bay -0.5 -1.4 1.3 271 105
Baltimore 0.8 -2.3 3.5 -281 -115
Boston 0.6 0.7 4.1 101 105
Toronto -0.4 -0.6 4.4 -111 -115
Oakland 0.2 -0.4 5.8 -168 -163
Houston -0.1 1.5 3.6 158 153
NY Yankees -0.4 0.0 3.0 152 125
Kansas City 0.6 -0.7 4.7 -162 -135
Texas 0.0 0.6 4.0 127 155
Seattle 0.6 -0.1 5.3 -137 -165
Miami 0.3 -0.4 4.4 -122 154
LA Angels 0.1 0.0 3.8 112 -164


Today's selections

Washington -131
Tampa Bay +105

Friday, August 22, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-0 +0.00

Defense wins championships and I geared this system to predict the defensive side of the ball more. So far, the results have played this out, albeit after only a small sample size posted here. My average runs allowed per game so far is 3.44, which is 0.66 rpg less than the major league average of 4.10. As long as my offenses can produce close to average I should be alright. My rpg is above average at 4.20 but my OPS is lacking a bit at just .650, although higher than the .625 for my opponents. Just negative variance so far being slightly in the red with a +0.76 average margin of victory.


YTD:  -0.36 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 25
ROI: -1.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.90 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 52.0%

Favorites: 14 games, +6.36 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.20
Runs allowed per game: 3.44  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .650
OPS allowed per game: .625  (MLB avg is .706)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

OFF DEF RUNS rLINE aLINE
St. Louis 1.4 -0.8 7.6 -242 -156
Philadelphia -0.1 2.1 3.2 232 146
San Francisco 0.6 0.7 2.8 183 139
Washington 0.5 -1.9 5.3 -193 -149
Atlanta 1.2 1.1 5.1 -124 -103
Cincinnati -0.9 -0.2 4.3 114 -107
Pittsburgh 0.5 1.4 4.1 160 136
Milwaukee 1.3 -0.5 6.8 -170 -146
Miami 0.0 -0.6 5.0 96 -128
Colorado 1.5 0.9 5.0 -106 118
San Diego 0.4 -0.3 5.2 -192 100
Arizona -1.0 0.7 2.8 182 -110
NY Mets -0.7 1.1 2.5 199 119
LA Dodgers -0.1 -0.9 5.1 -209 -129
Houston 0.5 2.8 4.6 143 176
Cleveland -0.1 0.0 6.8 -153 -186
Chi WhSox -0.3 1.8 2.0 270 169
NY Yankees -0.3 -1.8 5.6 -280 -179
Tampa Bay -0.8 -0.5 2.4 145 112
Toronto -0.1 -0.9 3.5 -155 -122
Seattle 0.6 -2.6 5.9 -510 -184
Boston -0.3 1.2 1.2 500 174
Kansas City 0.9 -0.8 5.1 -170 -140
Texas -0.2 0.1 3.1 160 130
Detroit 0.3 0.0 4.7 99 100
Minnesota 0.8 0.3 4.9 -109 -110
LA Angels -0.5 -1.7 1.9 107 144
Oakland -0.2 -1.7 2.2 -117 -154
Baltimore 1.3 -0.3 4.3 -120 -106
Chi Cubs -0.1 -1.1 3.7 110 -104


Today's selections

Miami -128
Detroit +100