Sunday, March 1, 2015

NBA

Friday: 1-0



YTD:  40-37-1  (52%)  +0.90 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  3-0  +3.00 units


Updating the tally on the shortened season after the teaser win for a final record of 40-37-1 (52%) and a profit of a little less than a unit.

Friday, February 27, 2015

NBA

Wednesday: 1-1



YTD:  39-37-1  (52%)  -0.10 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Atlanta -6 (pending)

Closing out my open teaser and also closing out my NBA season quite a bit early. I consulted a respected colleague of mine about this NBA prediction model that I restructured this season and began tracking on January 5th and we concluded that the 300+ predictions so far were of excellent quality. Generally, the linear regression model run on the predictions indicated that the picks have an above-average base of 50.65% and get progressively more accurate by 1.22% for every point of value over the oddsmaker's line, so a line I create that is 5 points different from the actual line should win at a 56.8% ATS rate, for example.

While that is encouraging despite the limited sample size, I also know that my work is not complete. It's a great starting point but there is an obvious weakness in there as well regarding making an adjustment for lineup changes like injuries or trades. That's the area I need to tighten up and, being around the trading deadline, I'm anticipating more and more inaccuracies in my line predictions as the season winds down so I'm closing up shop to work on that because it will be no small task. Actually I'm expecting it to be a huge project of top notch work to match the work I put into the foundation that I already have.

Thanks to those of you who followed along for the brief month and a half that I was posting the plays. I was hovering around 60% for the first month and sat at 32-24-1 (57%) at the All-Star break. I'll probably skip the week or so after the break next year as there was clearly a disruption in continuity with most teams having 8-11 days off without playing. My 7-13 mark since the break brought my record all the way down to 39-37-1 ATS.

Next season everything will be in place so you can expect a great NBA season with several hundred picks from November to April. I'm also eagerly anticipating my baseball selections that will start in a couple months. Got some good stuff there too! I usually do NHL at the same time as NBA but may or may not replace that with college basketball next season since I'm a lot more comfortable with my basketball handicapping now. NFL, which has always been my most successful league, will see an opening up of selections in 2015 to where I expect 70-90 picks instead of my usual 50-60. It's going to be a good year and it will all be posted right here at this blog.

Best wishes,

Bruce

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 0-1

On a terrible 6-12 run coming off the All-Star break and the possible loss of continuity these teams might be suffering after having 8 or 9 days off which, by the way, was a longer ASB than usual. The new commissioner implemented a longer break this season amidst complaints from players that they were getting worn down during the season. You can expect the league to either start earlier or end later as early as next year as another measure to spread out the season and give the players more rest, mainly eliminating playing four games in five nights.


YTD:  38-36-1  (52%)  -0.03 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  20-17-1  +2.24 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Miami 4 200.0 191.7     -2.29 1.35
Orlando 3 3.5 3.0 0.5 8.3 -5.59 0.43
New York 1 197.5 192.4 6.0   -9.05 (0.38)
Boston 4 -10.5 -4.5 5.1 -2.41 (1.25)
Dallas 7 204.5 201.6 8.7   3.12 (0.35)
Atlanta 9 -9.0 -0.3 2.9 6.88 (1.12)
Washington 6 201.0 197.3 0.6   0.13 (0.66)
Minnesota 2 -2.0 -1.4 3.7 -6.54 2.46
Brooklyn 3 193.0 195.4   2.4 -4.10 (1.96)
New Orleans 6 2.5 -2.7 5.2 0.14 (1.54)
Philadelphia 1 187.0 186.5 1.0   -8.92 2.61
Milwaukee 7 -10.5 -9.5 0.5 3.06 1.10
LA Clippers 8 218.0 205.0 2.7   5.94 (1.14)
Houston 8 -3.5 -0.8 13.0 4.58 1.19
Charlotte 4 188.0 191.5 3.9 3.5 -2.20 (1.73)
Chicago 7 -7.0 -3.1 2.29 (0.23)
Phoenix 5 214.0 212.1     -0.06 (2.90)
Denver 3 6.0 -1.8 7.8 1.9 -5.59 (1.91)
LA Lakers 3 192.0 196.1 3.5 4.1 -5.91 (1.73)
Utah 6 -10.0 -6.5 0.39 2.21
Memphis 8 200.0 197.9     4.30 2.37
Sacramento 3 7.0 0.8 6.2 2.1 -5.00 (2.75)
San Antonio 7 194.5 196.1   1.6 2.82 0.54
Portland 7 -2.5 -3.4 0.9 2.18 (1.77)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

Dallas +9 -107
Charlotte +7 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 1-2

Couldn't get the Clippers to pull out that late see-saw game. Now 6-11 since the ASB (I forgot my win last Thursday when I posted that record yesterday).


YTD:  38-35-1  (52%)  +1.05 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  20-17-1  +2.24 units
Totals:  16-18  -3.19 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Golden State 10 204.0 200.4     9.23 (2.16)
Washington 6 7.0 -1.1 8.1 3.6 0.51 (0.43)
Cleveland 8 205.5 200.7     4.30 4.22
Detroit 6 6.5 0.0 6.5 4.8 1.01 0.93
Indiana 5 205.0 196.9 0.4   -0.68 1.09
Oklahoma City 8 -7.5 -7.1 8.1 4.32 0.74
Toronto 7 204.5 202.2     2.23 (0.30)
Dallas 7 -4.5 -4.6 0.1 2.3 3.04 (0.84)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

GS/Was Under 204 -108

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

Monday, February 23, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 1-2

Have resumed from the All-Star break at a 4-9 clip. Happened to be the worst week of the season and my most plays in a four day stretch at thirteen. Will have to go a little lighter on the plays following the ASB in the future as a lack of continuity seems to happen often enough in all sports. At least I lowered my units to 60% of full value because I was concerned about it as I mentioned back on Saturday. Still at 60% going into tonight. "My line" side plays with value of 0.5+ went 4-4 and still over 57% ATS over every scheduled game.


YTD:  37-33-1  (53%)  +2.15 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  19-15-1  +3.34 units
Totals:  16-18  -3.19 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Philadelphia 1 193.5 187.9 3.7   -8.98 2.58
Miami 4 -11.0 -7.3 5.6 -2.13 2.00
Toronto 7 195.0 198.3   3.3 2.67 0.29
New Orleans 5 7.5 -0.4 7.9 -0.02 (1.80)
Milwaukee 7 193.5 194.9 7.1 1.4 3.49 1.79
Chicago 6 -7.0 0.1 1.80 (0.29)
Minnesota 2 213.0 201.8 1.2   -6.59 2.74
Houston 8 -8.0 -6.8 11.2 4.48 1.63
San Antonio 7 186.5 195.1   8.6 3.05 0.06
Utah 6 5.5 -1.2 6.7 0.28 2.47
Boston 4 212.5 203.4 2.3   -2.60 (1.08)
Phoenix 6 -8.0 -5.7 9.1 0.58 (2.25)
Brooklyn 3 205.0 199.5     -4.86 (2.76)
Denver 3 2.0 -3.2 5.2 5.5 -4.53 (0.91)
Memphis 8 201.0 202.7   1.7 4.24 2.38
LA Clippers 9 -3.5 -7.4 3.9 6.81 (0.64)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

Milwaukee +7 -108
Utah +5.5 -107
LA Clippers -3.5 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

Analyzing the NBA

Going to post this at the beginning of each new week. This is how my numbers view the NBA at the current time, sorted by efficiency scores and also including "move" which is what direction the team is heading and category numbers that I group each team into (1-10).


team W L efficiency move category
1 Golden State 43 9 9.20 (1.94) 10
2 LA Clippers 37 19 6.77 (0.67) 9
3 Atlanta 43 12 6.68 (0.88) 9
4 Houston 37 18 4.45 1.61 8
5 Memphis 39 14 4.12 2.05 8
6 Cleveland 34 22 4.02 4.01 8
7 Oklahoma City 30 25 3.82 (0.34) 7
8 Milwaukee 31 23 3.53 2.67 7
9 San Antonio 34 21 3.04 0.05 7
10 Dallas 37 20 2.87 (1.32) 7
11 Toronto 37 18 2.61 0.23 7
12 Portland 36 18 2.41 (1.70) 7
13 Chicago 35 21 1.80 (0.29) 6
14 Washington 33 22 0.74 (0.07) 6
15 Phoenix 29 27 0.56 (2.28) 6
16 Detroit 22 33 0.42 (0.09) 6
17 Utah 20 34 0.23 2.42 6
18 New Orleans 28 27 (0.08) (1.86) 5
19 Indiana 22 33 (0.77) 0.66 5
20 Charlotte 22 31 (1.75) (0.66) 5
21 Miami 23 31 (2.13) 2.00 4
22 Boston 20 32 (2.36) (0.93) 4
23 Denver 20 34 (3.80) (0.13) 4
24 Brooklyn 22 31 (4.93) (2.83) 3
25 Sacramento 19 35 (4.93) (2.68) 3
26 Orlando 18 39 (5.62) 0.01 3
27 LA Lakers 13 41 (5.97) (1.90) 3
28 Minnesota 12 42 (6.62) 2.71 2
29 New York 10 44 (8.90) (0.22) 1
30 Philadelphia 12 42 (9.72) 2.04 1
Better than their record
Oklahoma City Thunder (14th in wins, 7th in efficiency)
Milwaukee Bucks (13th in wins, 8th in efficiency)
Utah Jazz (22nd in wins, 17th in efficiency)
Worse than their record
Miami Heat (17th in wins, 21st in efficiency)
Chicago Bulls (9th in wins, 13th in efficiency)
Portland Trailblazers (8th in wins, 12th in efficiency)
Toronto Raptors (7th in wins, 11th in efficiency)
Dallas Mavericks (6th in wins, 10th in efficiency)
Hottest teams: Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks
Coldest teams: Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns