Sunday, July 26, 2015

MLB Baseball


With the All-Star game behind us and the second half of the MLB season underway, I will begin posting my MLB selections at this blog starting around Saturday, August 1st.

What the heck have I been doing all year, you ask? Very extensive reconstruction of the previous baseball math model. Basically, I tore it all down and started over. Took me way longer than I thought. Over the past three seasons, I have achieved modest success in this sport, made a reasonable profit all three years, but my work continuously evolves each and every year as I hone my skills in the art of statistical prediction models. Been doing this in earnest for around 13 years now.

There's little doubt the level of work I'm doing now is leaps and bounds better than anything I've done in the past. The simple reason being there is so much to learn and understand about statistical prediction models and so many different ways to do it....the #1 reason I love what I do. There's no right or wrong way, only different levels of quality. And now I've reached the "next" level.

This level started this past winter in NBA, where my newly developed basketball model was regression-fitted to show a 56.8% ATS expectancy if my predicted line was 5 points better than the actual line (51.9% for a single point of an edge over the Vegas line and a 1.223% increase for every added point of value, so just a 2-point edge would be profitable at 53.1%).

With baseball, I'm using the same approach although the differences are obvious. Money lines instead of point spreads. Different starting pitchers every day. Bullpens. Park effects, weather, etc. I have taken just about everything imaginable into account for the analysis. Being a brand new model, I will unavoidably be starting slow to feel things out, only playing the largest overlays that I can find until things settle in. By starting around August 1st, I will have two months of data (approx. 800 games) to work with and analyze in order to make it a more productive prediction model in 2016 (more selections). But this next two months will tell me a lot as I learn how much of an overlay is profitable and by how much. I've also set up my spreadsheet to be able to cross-analyze the results for the purpose of improving accuracy going forward.

I am confident of success even this year in the two-month trial period. Simply put, there are nuances in each sport that offer the diligent handicapper the opportunity to make a more accurate money line in baseball than Vegas does because Vegas' lines are biased or influenced by the betting action, either perceived or actual. My line is a true reflection of the two teams in question with no outside influences. So I simply compare my "truth" to their "offering". I'm looking for a 5-10% ROI range or better.

In other sports, I will be entering the LVH Westgate NFL SuperContest for the second time this year. I finished 78th out of 1,403 last year in my inaugural attempt, hitting 60% (51-34-0 ats), normally a good enough performance to cash many of the previous contests but I didn't win a dime in the largest field in contest history and I even had some negative luck going 1-5 in legitimate good/bad beats. It may not be this year, but I will make a top 5 run in that contest at some point. Wish I played it the two years prior when I hit 62% and 70% ats respectively in 2012 and 2013.

Anyway, those contest picks will be posted here as well as all of my NFL selections as I'll be opening up my repertoire to deliver significantly more plays than I usually do (70-90 vs 45-55 normally). Less than 7 weeks till kickoff.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

NBA

Friday: 1-0



YTD:  40-37-1  (52%)  +0.90 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  3-0  +3.00 units


Updating the tally on the shortened season after the teaser win for a final record of 40-37-1 (52%) and a profit of a little less than a unit.

Friday, February 27, 2015

NBA

Wednesday: 1-1



YTD:  39-37-1  (52%)  -0.10 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  21-18-1  +2.17 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Atlanta -6 (pending)

Closing out my open teaser and also closing out my NBA season quite a bit early. I consulted a respected colleague of mine about this NBA prediction model that I restructured this season and began tracking on January 5th and we concluded that the 300+ predictions so far were of excellent quality. Generally, the linear regression model run on the predictions indicated that the picks have an above-average base of 50.65% and get progressively more accurate by 1.22% for every point of value over the oddsmaker's line, so a line I create that is 5 points different from the actual line should win at a 56.8% ATS rate, for example.

While that is encouraging despite the limited sample size, I also know that my work is not complete. It's a great starting point but there is an obvious weakness in there as well regarding making an adjustment for lineup changes like injuries or trades. That's the area I need to tighten up and, being around the trading deadline, I'm anticipating more and more inaccuracies in my line predictions as the season winds down so I'm closing up shop to work on that because it will be no small task. Actually I'm expecting it to be a huge project of top notch work to match the work I put into the foundation that I already have.

Thanks to those of you who followed along for the brief month and a half that I was posting the plays. I was hovering around 60% for the first month and sat at 32-24-1 (57%) at the All-Star break. I'll probably skip the week or so after the break next year as there was clearly a disruption in continuity with most teams having 8-11 days off without playing. My 7-13 mark since the break brought my record all the way down to 39-37-1 ATS.

Next season everything will be in place so you can expect a great NBA season with several hundred picks from November to April. I'm also eagerly anticipating my baseball selections that will start in a couple months. Got some good stuff there too! I usually do NHL at the same time as NBA but may or may not replace that with college basketball next season since I'm a lot more comfortable with my basketball handicapping now. NFL, which has always been my most successful league, will see an opening up of selections in 2015 to where I expect 70-90 picks instead of my usual 50-60. It's going to be a good year and it will all be posted right here at this blog.

Best wishes,

Bruce

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 0-1

On a terrible 6-12 run coming off the All-Star break and the possible loss of continuity these teams might be suffering after having 8 or 9 days off which, by the way, was a longer ASB than usual. The new commissioner implemented a longer break this season amidst complaints from players that they were getting worn down during the season. You can expect the league to either start earlier or end later as early as next year as another measure to spread out the season and give the players more rest, mainly eliminating playing four games in five nights.


YTD:  38-36-1  (52%)  -0.03 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  20-17-1  +2.24 units
Totals:  16-19  -4.27 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Miami 4 200.0 191.7     -2.29 1.35
Orlando 3 3.5 3.0 0.5 8.3 -5.59 0.43
New York 1 197.5 192.4 6.0   -9.05 (0.38)
Boston 4 -10.5 -4.5 5.1 -2.41 (1.25)
Dallas 7 204.5 201.6 8.7   3.12 (0.35)
Atlanta 9 -9.0 -0.3 2.9 6.88 (1.12)
Washington 6 201.0 197.3 0.6   0.13 (0.66)
Minnesota 2 -2.0 -1.4 3.7 -6.54 2.46
Brooklyn 3 193.0 195.4   2.4 -4.10 (1.96)
New Orleans 6 2.5 -2.7 5.2 0.14 (1.54)
Philadelphia 1 187.0 186.5 1.0   -8.92 2.61
Milwaukee 7 -10.5 -9.5 0.5 3.06 1.10
LA Clippers 8 218.0 205.0 2.7   5.94 (1.14)
Houston 8 -3.5 -0.8 13.0 4.58 1.19
Charlotte 4 188.0 191.5 3.9 3.5 -2.20 (1.73)
Chicago 7 -7.0 -3.1 2.29 (0.23)
Phoenix 5 214.0 212.1     -0.06 (2.90)
Denver 3 6.0 -1.8 7.8 1.9 -5.59 (1.91)
LA Lakers 3 192.0 196.1 3.5 4.1 -5.91 (1.73)
Utah 6 -10.0 -6.5 0.39 2.21
Memphis 8 200.0 197.9     4.30 2.37
Sacramento 3 7.0 0.8 6.2 2.1 -5.00 (2.75)
San Antonio 7 194.5 196.1   1.6 2.82 0.54
Portland 7 -2.5 -3.4 0.9 2.18 (1.77)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

Dallas +9 -107
Charlotte +7 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 1-2

Couldn't get the Clippers to pull out that late see-saw game. Now 6-11 since the ASB (I forgot my win last Thursday when I posted that record yesterday).


YTD:  38-35-1  (52%)  +1.05 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  20-17-1  +2.24 units
Totals:  16-18  -3.19 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Golden State 10 204.0 200.4     9.23 (2.16)
Washington 6 7.0 -1.1 8.1 3.6 0.51 (0.43)
Cleveland 8 205.5 200.7     4.30 4.22
Detroit 6 6.5 0.0 6.5 4.8 1.01 0.93
Indiana 5 205.0 196.9 0.4   -0.68 1.09
Oklahoma City 8 -7.5 -7.1 8.1 4.32 0.74
Toronto 7 204.5 202.2     2.23 (0.30)
Dallas 7 -4.5 -4.6 0.1 2.3 3.04 (0.84)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

GS/Was Under 204 -108

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)

Monday, February 23, 2015

NBA

Yesterday: 1-2

Have resumed from the All-Star break at a 4-9 clip. Happened to be the worst week of the season and my most plays in a four day stretch at thirteen. Will have to go a little lighter on the plays following the ASB in the future as a lack of continuity seems to happen often enough in all sports. At least I lowered my units to 60% of full value because I was concerned about it as I mentioned back on Saturday. Still at 60% going into tonight. "My line" side plays with value of 0.5+ went 4-4 and still over 57% ATS over every scheduled game.


YTD:  37-33-1  (53%)  +2.15 units

Breakdown:
Sides:  19-15-1  +3.34 units
Totals:  16-18  -3.19 units
Teasers:  2-0  +2.00 units


ACTUAL LINE vs MY LINE (VALUE)
matchups cat act line my line side val totl val effcncy move
Philadelphia 1 193.5 187.9 3.7   -8.98 2.58
Miami 4 -11.0 -7.3 5.6 -2.13 2.00
Toronto 7 195.0 198.3   3.3 2.67 0.29
New Orleans 5 7.5 -0.4 7.9 -0.02 (1.80)
Milwaukee 7 193.5 194.9 7.1 1.4 3.49 1.79
Chicago 6 -7.0 0.1 1.80 (0.29)
Minnesota 2 213.0 201.8 1.2   -6.59 2.74
Houston 8 -8.0 -6.8 11.2 4.48 1.63
San Antonio 7 186.5 195.1   8.6 3.05 0.06
Utah 6 5.5 -1.2 6.7 0.28 2.47
Boston 4 212.5 203.4 2.3   -2.60 (1.08)
Phoenix 6 -8.0 -5.7 9.1 0.58 (2.25)
Brooklyn 3 205.0 199.5     -4.86 (2.76)
Denver 3 2.0 -3.2 5.2 5.5 -4.53 (0.91)
Memphis 8 201.0 202.7   1.7 4.24 2.38
LA Clippers 9 -3.5 -7.4 3.9 6.81 (0.64)


Today's plays  (all plays for 1 unit)

Milwaukee +7 -108
Utah +5.5 -107
LA Clippers -3.5 -102

5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Open Spot (pending)