Sunday, October 19, 2014

NFL

Last week:  1-4

Documented forum record

Career:  328-258-19  (56.0%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  7-7-0  (50%)  -$330.....ROI:  -4.2%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  319-253-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  9-5-0  (65%).....avg line:  -110


WEEK 7

Jacksonville +5.5 -108  ($540 to win $500)
Oakland +3.5 -108  ($540 to win $500)

These plays were locked in Thursday night. They both are showing around a 58% win rate expectancy. Their opponents, Arizona and Cleveland, are both in letdown situations coupled with line value situations on the Jags and Raiders, the two worst teams in the NFL. The Browns just destroyed division rival Pittsburgh and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, but 5.5-point favorites on the road? It would be natural to find it hard to get up for the Jaguars and they just lost pro bowl center Mack for the season. The Raiders nearly tasted victory for the first time last week at home against the Chargers. They led most of the way but fell short in the end but get another chance at home this week against a banged-up Cardinals team.


10.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, +124  ($500 to win $620)

Seattle +3
Denver +3.5
SF/Den Over 39.5
KC/SD Over 35


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

Thursday, October 9, 2014

NFL

Last week:  2-1

Documented forum record

Career:  327-254-19  (56.3%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  6-3-0  (67%)  +$1,425.....ROI:  28.0%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  318-251-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  9-3-0  (75%).....avg line:  -110


WEEK 6

NY Jets +10 -113  ($565 to win $500)

Buffalo +3 -118  ($590 to win $500)

Oakland +7 -108  ($540 to win $500)


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Indianapolis +4
Cincinnati -1


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Oakland +14.5
Seattle -3

Wish I had time to do a writeup on some reasons I like these plays because they are some of the strongest indicators I've had on the season so far, namely the Jets and Buffalo. I would think the Patriots would continue their roll from last Sunday night but Kyle Orton projects to be a thorn in their side this weekend.

I was also planning on displaying my data analysis that kicks in full speed on Week 6 but I have prior commitments this weekend that are forcing me to put my picks up early (Wednesday). Locked in these lines earlier than I wanted to as well since I don't want to risk not being able to do it later since I won't be in my usual element.

Best wishes.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: W
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 11-5.....Next: W

Thursday, October 2, 2014

NFL

Last week:  3-1

Documented forum record

Career:  325-253-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

Past year breakdown:
Sides:  316-249-19  (56%)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%)


2014:  4-2-0  (67%)  +$955

This year's breakdown:
ROI:  +28.0%
ATS Sides:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -118
Teasers:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -102


WEEK 5


Washington +7 -105  ($525 to win $500)

The Seahawks are not nearly as dominant on the road, scoring 22.0 points per game in the Russell Wilson era vs 29.9 ppg at home. That's almost 8 points less. Their margin of victory away from Seattle is +4.3 ppg. Just 6-6 ats as road favorites and 1-1 of a TD or more. Washington will be hosting this party on Monday night coming off extra rest and after getting blown out by division rival NY by 31. Seattle is off a bye but lost their only other road favorite game off a bye in 2012, 21-24 at Miami as 2.5-point faves. This game has every ingredient for a motivating performance by the under-valued Redskins. I have not locked this line in yet.


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Green Bay -3
Denver -2


7.0-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -120  ($600 to win $500)

New Orleans -4
Philadelphia -1

My main purpose for teasers is to play larger favorites that my work shows as having value without having to lay those big lines. The Pack goes Thursday coming off a strong offensive showing against the Bears on Sunday. Bridgewater is questionable. Denver has had two weeks to chew on their tough loss to Seattle. They should be ready to roll versus Arizona who is due for a loss. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. They return home to face a Bucs team that I picked last week when they upset the Steelers. That probably won't happen two weeks in a row. Philly also needs to rebound from a loss when they host the Rams who are going nowhere.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: W
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 11-5.....Next: W

Sunday, September 28, 2014

NFL

Last week:  0-1


Documented forum record

Career:  322-252-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-1-0  (50%)  -$75


Breakdown:

ROI:  -7.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-1-0  (50%).....average price: -115


WEEK 4

Jacksonville +13 -118  ($590 to win $500)

An ugly duckling that is in a bounce back situation of 417-319-16 ats (57%, +66.1 units, 3.61 z-score, L5Y 55%, LY 68%, TY 75% (3-1)). Two of my dozen or so strong situational angles agree on this play. When that happens, the record is 67-38-3 ats (64%). Chargers are playing well right now and a 3-1 record is all but a certainty (could easily be 4-0) so human nature could make this feel a little too easy for San Diego.


Tampa Bay +7.5 -115  ($575 to win $500)

One of my strongest bounce back situations is on the Bucs at Pittsburgh. This situation is 58-14-3 ats since 1986 (81%, +42.6 units, 5.19 z-score, L5Y 81%, LY 50% (1-1), TY 0-0). Bucs got embarrassed on TNF last week and Steelers cruised on SNF. This won't be easy but looking for Tampa to play a lot better. Hopefully the extra few days of rest helped them straighten some things out.


Kansas City +??

Going to wait on the Chiefs line till closer to kickoff. Three of my situational angles agree. When that happens, the record is 17-3-1 ats (85%). Brady and the Pats are not yet clicking on offense and Brady's numbers have declined steadily the past several seasons. Beware the home dog on Monday Night Football.


10.5pt. teaser, ties reduce, +124  ($500 to win $620)

Chicago +11.5  (last Monday, WON)
Indianapolis +3
Tampa Bay +19.5
Kansas City +??

Keeping an open spot for the Chiefs until Monday. Right now the line is at +13.5.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: bye
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 12-4.....Next: W

Sunday, September 21, 2014

NFL

Last week:  1-0


Documented forum record

Career:  322-251-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  1-0-0  (100%)  +$500


Breakdown:

ROI:  +87.0%

ATS Sides:  0-0-0  (00%).....average price: NA
Teasers:  1-0-0  (100%).....average price: -115


WEEK 3

10pt. teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans -0.5
San Francisco +7
Indianapolis +3

Really do not like this Week 3 card at all. I have conflicting data and situational angles on each side of quite a few matchups. Minnesota was my strong preliminary play but I'm not going against a hungry Saints team in their home opener. In this case, it's best to pass and wait for opportunities of greater value next week. In the meantime, I'll post up my second teaser of the season.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Projected record: 13-3.....Next: L
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Projected record: 12-4.....Next: W
 

Sunday, September 14, 2014

NFL

Documented forum record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Week 1: 0-0


Week 2:

10 pt teaser, ties reduce, -115  ($575 to win $500)

New Orleans +3.5
New England +7
Indianapolis +7

I went 5-2 in teasers last year as you can see in my breakdown in blue above. Never played them much before that but I'll have more of them this year. They can be really strong wagers if you're smart about them and they only cost a few cents more than a standard Vegas wager. I put this one in on Friday before the Peterson news but I would also back the Patriots at the current line (+4.5) if necessary.

Andrew Luck has never lost back to back games in his young career (10-0 su, 9-0-1 ats). Since 2003, Tom Brady is 27-9 ats (75%) after a loss, 17-3 on the road (85%) and 9-1 as a road favorite of less than 7. Drew Brees is 21-8 ats (72%) following a loss since 2008, only 6-5 on the road (lost 3 straight) but 3-1 as a road favorite.

No ATS sides qualified in Week 2.


Futures

Denver o11.5 wins +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 wins -155  ($2500 to win $1613)
 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

NFL

Documented Talksport/Scoresline record

Career:  321-251-19  (56.1%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  0-0-0  (00%)

Last year's breakdown:

ATS Sides:  21-9-1  (70%).....average price: -107  (highest: -120)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%).....average price: -116  (highest: -120)


Preseason: 0-0


Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

I don't play Week 1 in the NFL but I have two season win total props to get things started. I am a New England native and have lived in Denver for the last 18 years so I know these two teams well. Both won 13 and 12 games respectively last season and both improved their teams by bolstering their defenses. Denver's offense is coming off a record-setting 2013 season. They will be without Welker for four games but add Sanders to offset that. Brady is in much better shape with his receiving corps than he was this time a year ago. Both teams are also plenty hungry with aging quarterbacks that force them to be in "win now" mode. Five units on each.

As far as the regular season plays, I will start in Week 2. I started posting late last year, thus only 38 games on record. I expect closer to 50 plays or so this season.