Sunday, October 4, 2015

COVERING THE NFL - W4

Last week:  3-1

Off to a nightmare start in the SuperContest. Considering my actual side wagers are 4-3, that means the extra eight picks I've added for the contest to satisfy the "five per week" requirement (which are still good picks judging from my history of tracking) have gone 0-8. That's hard to do. Long way to go, though. Couple of 5-0's would change everything.


Documented forum record:

Career:  355-277-19  (56%) ATS

Breakdown:
Sides:  337-266-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  16-11  (59%).....avg line:  -106
Futures:  2-0  (100%).....avg line:  -125

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  29-21-0  (58%)
2015:  5-5-0  (50%)

Las Vegas SuperContest  (not included in handicapping record)
2014:  51-34-0  (60%)  finished 78 out of 1,403
2015:  4-11-0  (27%)  picks: JAC,CHI,SF,STL,DET


Week 4

Cleveland +7 -125

Played this at 8am ET, and now the line has dropped to 5.5. I don't recommend taking anything less than a TD, so if it doesn't return to 7 at no more juice than -130, I would pass. Got juiced out on both of these plays today but I don't mind that once in awhile because by the end of the year my average juice will be more than reasonable overall.

San Francisco +8.5 -125

The 49ers fit several situational angles today as a big ugly home dog to the high-flying Packers. These teams have been going in different directions which always supplies added value in the line so, assuming a decent level of motivation and focus for the underdog, which I believe we'll have here, we should have a great chance to cover.



Future



Denver o10 wins -135

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