NHL
Friday: 0-1 -1.40
Lost a tough one on Detroit. Gave up a 2-goal lead in the final period then lost the shootout to the Capitals, who seem to have that "come back in the third, then win the shootout" formula down pat. I'm now 2-5 in overtime games.
YTD: 9-7-1 +1.77 units (@ 1 unit each)
R.O.I.: +7.7%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.21 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.4%
Current YTD winning %: 56.3%
Results of my system plays
Goals scored per game: 3.6
Goals allowed per game: 3.0
Shots on goal per game: 31.6
Shots allowed per game: 26.2
Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Goals (+0.6) and shots (+5.4) averages look good so far.
Luck Factor
Regulation results: 7-2 +6.20
Overtime results: 2-5 -4.43 (0-2 ot/2-3 so)
Comments: When a game goes to overtime it's a 50/50 coin flip, especially in a shootout, so I've been a little unlucky so far. Law of averages say this should even out in the long run.
Losses where my team outshot opponent: 5
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 2
Comments: A little unlucky here as well at -3. I've had 17 wagers involving 18 teams (1 two-team parlay). 14 of those 18 teams outshot their opponent (78%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. In that respect, it's not surprising that I have a lot of losses when outshooting my opponent because there's way more opportunities for that to happen.
Tonight's matchups. Eight statistical formulas factoring in strength of schedule and a final overall number in blue at the end:
Tonight's play
Vancouver -145
Friday: 0-1 -1.40
Lost a tough one on Detroit. Gave up a 2-goal lead in the final period then lost the shootout to the Capitals, who seem to have that "come back in the third, then win the shootout" formula down pat. I'm now 2-5 in overtime games.
YTD: 9-7-1 +1.77 units (@ 1 unit each)
R.O.I.: +7.7%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.21 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.4%
Current YTD winning %: 56.3%
Results of my system plays
Goals scored per game: 3.6
Goals allowed per game: 3.0
Shots on goal per game: 31.6
Shots allowed per game: 26.2
Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Goals (+0.6) and shots (+5.4) averages look good so far.
Luck Factor
Regulation results: 7-2 +6.20
Overtime results: 2-5 -4.43 (0-2 ot/2-3 so)
Comments: When a game goes to overtime it's a 50/50 coin flip, especially in a shootout, so I've been a little unlucky so far. Law of averages say this should even out in the long run.
Losses where my team outshot opponent: 5
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 2
Comments: A little unlucky here as well at -3. I've had 17 wagers involving 18 teams (1 two-team parlay). 14 of those 18 teams outshot their opponent (78%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. In that respect, it's not surprising that I have a lot of losses when outshooting my opponent because there's way more opportunities for that to happen.
Tonight's matchups. Eight statistical formulas factoring in strength of schedule and a final overall number in blue at the end:
| Columbus | (0.1) | (0.2) | 2.3 | 2.8 | (0.3) | (0.4) | (0.3) | (0.7) | 4.1 |
| Ottawa | (0.0) | (0.3) | 0.4 | (0.2) | (1.7) | (3.3) | 0.4 | (0.1) | -6.5 |
| St. Louis | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 1.0 | (1.0) | 9.4 |
| Washington | 0.4 | (0.2) | (0.7) | (0.9) | (5.3) | (5.1) | 2.8 | 0.8 | -7.0 |
| Los Angeles | 0.3 | 0.4 | (1.4) | 0.9 | 6.4 | 4.7 | (0.8) | (0.1) | 9.6 |
| NY Rangers | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 11.3 |
| San Jose | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | (1.0) | (0.1) | 4.4 |
| Chicago | 0.4 | (0.8) | 0.7 | (0.1) | 6.4 | 1.1 | (1.3) | (3.3) | -13.0 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | (0.0) | (2.5) | (1.1) | (0.3) | (1.1) | 0.2 | 0.3 | -3.6 |
| Vancouver | 0.4 | 0.3 | (0.0) | 0.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | (0.6) | 0.2 | 7.1 |
| Winnipeg | (0.1) | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | (2.3) | (0.5) | 1.3 | 7.4 |
| Minnesota | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 16.5 |
Tonight's play
Vancouver -145
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