NHL

Yesterday: 1-0 +1.00

Scored a notch of redemption with a come-from-behind shootout victory with the Minnesota Wild. We had previously been 1-4 in overtime games despite it basically being a coin flip.


YTD:  7-4 +3.12 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: +21.6%
Average win: 1.12 units
Average loss: 1.26 units
Breakeven price: -113
Breakeven winning %: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 63.6%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.5
Goals allowed per game: 2.4
Shots on goal per game: 31.2
Shots allowed per game: 25.7

Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Goals (+1.1) and shots (+5.5) averages look good so far.

Luck Factor

Regulation results: 5-0 +6.15
Overtime results: 2-4 -3.03 (0-2 ot/ 2-2 so)

Comments: When a game goes to overtime it's a 50/50 coin flip, especially in a shootout, so we're still a little on the short end there but a nice win last night.

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 3
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 1

Comments: A little unlucky here as well at -2. I've had 11 wagers involving 12 teams (1 two-team parlay). 10 of those 12 teams outshot their opponent (83%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. It obviously doesn't always translate to a win but 10 of 12 are very nice early numbers and should lead to success if sustained anywhere close to that level.


Tonight's matchups

Los Angeles	(0.3)	(0.1)	(1.0)	1.7	6.7	4.2	(3.1)	(1.7)	4.5
NY Islanders	(0.8)	(1.0)	0.3	(0.2)	(0.4)	(1.0)	(2.5)	(3.0)	-16.0
Columbus	(0.3)	(0.4)	1.1	2.3	(0.6)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(0.9)	0.4
Boston	0.8	0.6	(2.1)	(2.2)	(1.7)	(0.4)	3.3	2.0	2.2
Anaheim	0.4	(0.0)	(0.2)	0.3	0.2	1.8	1.2	(0.8)	0.5
Tampa Bay	0.2	0.1	0.5	(0.1)	(0.6)	(0.6)	0.7	0.7	1.8
Colorado	0.4	0.2	(0.9)	(1.6)	(2.3)	(1.7)	2.0	0.9	-2.7
St. Louis	0.2	0.1	0.6	0.4	5.1	5.3	(0.9)	(1.3)	4.0
Phoenix	0.3	(0.2)	0.8	0.4	(3.4)	(4.2)	1.9	0.6	-2.7
Chicago	0.9	(0.4)	0.8	(0.1)	5.5	1.8	1.0	(1.9)	-5.5
Dallas	(0.2)	(0.0)	(2.7)	(1.4)	(0.5)	(1.2)	(0.6)	0.3	-4.7
Calgary	(0.5)	(0.6)	(0.6)	(0.8)	(2.3)	0.4	(1.1)	(2.0)	-10.6
San Jose	0.1	0.0	0.9	0.3	5.1	2.2	(1.2)	(0.6)	1.8
Vancouver	0.3	0.3	(0.3)	0.1	6.6	3.6	(0.9)	(0.0)	6.1

Tonight's plays

Los Angeles -120
Anaheim +102
Calgary -105
St. Louis -1 +110
Chicago -1 -106

The last two are played on the -1 puck line to lower the juice. A 1-goal win is a push. This bet is achieved my mixing half bets on the regular ML and -1.5 PL to where the win amount on the ML equals the risk amount on the PL.