NHL

Saturday: 1-2 -1.92

Tough 1-0 loss in OT by the Kings Saturday night at -160. Now 3-6 in overtime games on the season.


YTD:  13-14-1 -2.90 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -9.0%
Average win: 1.11 units
Average loss: 1.24 units
Breakeven price: -112
Breakeven winning %: 52.7%
Current YTD winning %: 48.1%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.9
Goals allowed per game: 2.8
Shots on goal per game: 32.2
Shots allowed per game: 25.8

Shooting percentage for: 9.0%
Shooting percentage against: 10.8%

Overtime results: 3-6 -4.93 (0-3 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 11
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 3

Comments: The shots on goal results combined with shooting percentage are a good indicator of the health of a team and how well they are playing. I've had 28 wagers involving 29 teams (1 two-team parlay). 23 of those 29 teams outshot their opponent (79%), which is all I can ask for. While shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather have more than the opponent for obvious reasons. My SOG advantage of +6.4 per game is very good but I've been hurt by giving up a 10.8% shooting percentage (-1.8% worse than my SP); which means my goalies only have an .892 save percentage which has diminished my shot advantage. If my OT games were 50/50 and even on the money line (which is the expectation over the long haul), I would have +2.03 units of profit despite getting outshot by almost a full 2%.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Pittsburgh	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.2	4.2	3.0	1.0	0.5	6.2
Boston	0.4	0.6	0.6	1.3	1.3	0.3	1.7	2.1	3.0
Columbus	1.2	0.8	2.1	2.2	3.2	0.7	3.2	2.8	-2.8
Toronto	0.0	0.5	1.0	1.4	12.5	8.8	2.9	3.2	-4.6
Winnipeg	0.1	0.1	0.8	1.7	2.5	0.9	1.1	0.5	3.5
New Jersey	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.6	1.1	5.2	3.7	2.5	17.2
Philadelphia	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	1.9	1.9	1.1	1.6	1.9
Florida	0.6	0.3	1.9	0.9	0.5	2.0	2.2	1.8	-4.0
NY Rangers	0.8	0.8	2.8	1.9	5.7	0.2	1.6	3.0	12.0
Tampa Bay	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	1.1	1.0	0.8	1.0	1.0
Phoenix	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.0	2.7	4.4	2.2	0.4	-5.0
Nashville	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	3.3	0.6	0.8	2.0	-6.6
Minnesota	0.3	0.1	1.6	1.2	2.0	1.8	1.6	0.1	4.6
St. Louis	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	4.5	4.3	1.8	0.1	5.8
Chicago	0.5	0.5	0.8	0.9	6.1	1.7	0.7	2.2	-5.7
Edmonton	0.6	0.2	1.9	1.8	1.8	0.3	1.5	0.7	-5.9
Los Angeles	0.5	0.7	1.4	0.9	5.2	4.9	0.5	1.2	11.8
Vancouver	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.4	8.6	4.9	0.6	0.7	10.0

Tonight's plays

NY Rangers -125
Phoenix -115
St. Louis -1 +114
Chicago -1 +128