NHL

Yesterday: 1-0 +1.10

Spent the last three days re-analyzing some things on the spreadsheets. I have a few spreadsheets I use for NHL, the main one being quite extensive with dozens of different calculations that look at the teams from many different angles. I needed to do this at some point this year after things got under way, and not just because I lost 6 units in 5 days, but I've put in some nice reinforcements going forward. I didn't change anything, just looking at more than I was before. What made me dig deeper was that on Tuesday night I lost four games but outshot my opponents in all four by a combined margin of 145-94 (+51 shots), yet lost by a combined 14-4 in those four games. So what's the reason? Well, the shooting percentage for my four teams was 2.8% compared to 14.9% by the opponents. Either my teams are getting a lot of low quality shots or we're running into extremely hot goalies.


YTD:  11-12-1 -2.03 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -7.4%
Average win: 1.12 units
Average loss: 1.20 units
Breakeven price: -107
Breakeven winning %: 51.6%
Current YTD winning %: 47.8%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.1
Goals allowed per game: 3.0
Shots on goal per game: 32.6
Shots allowed per game: 25.6

Shooting percentage for: 9.5%
Shooting percentage against: 11.5%

Overtime results: 3-5 -3.33 (0-2 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 10
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 3

Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Shots (+7.0) averages look good so far. The opponents are shooting 2.0% higher. I've had 24 wagers involving 25 teams (1 two-team parlay). 20 of those 25 teams outshot their opponent (80%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. In that respect, it's not surprising that I have a lot of losses when outshooting my opponent because there's way more opportunities for that to happen.


Tonight's matchups. Eight statistical formulas factoring in strength of schedule and a final overall number in blue at the end:

NY Islanders	1.0	0.9	0.6	1.4	2.3	0.9	4.2	3.6	-11.9
Pittsburgh	0.6	0.5	2.3	0.5	3.9	3.3	1.1	1.0	6.3
Montreal	0.2	0.7	0.6	2.6	0.5	0.9	0.6	2.2	13.1
Washington	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.7	6.4	5.7	2.8	1.3	-5.3
Florida	0.6	0.3	1.4	0.6	0.0	1.3	2.1	1.4	-3.3
Calgary	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.7	1.0	2.4	2.6	-5.4
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.0	-1.4
Anaheim	0.2	0.2	0.7	1.3	1.7	2.7	0.1	1.8	1.6
Columbus	1.0	0.6	1.8	2.2	3.2	0.3	2.7	2.0	-1.1
Vancouver	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.2	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.4	6.1

Tonight's play

Montreal +105