Thursday, October 30, 2014

NFL

Last week:  2-1

Documented forum record

Career:  330-259-19  (56.0%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  9-8-0  (53%)  +$250.....ROI:  +2.6%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  320-254-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  10-5-0  (67%).....avg line:  -108


WEEK 9

Carolina +3 +115  ($500 to win $575)  LOST Thursday

NY Jets +9 -108  ($540 to win $500)

Michael Vick played in relief of Geno Smith a few weeks back and looked terrible. Vick admitted he was not prepared to play in that game and swore "that will never happen again". Well, here's his shot at redemption. I don't expect Vick to play great but hopefully just not turn the ball over as much as Smith did. I think the Jets match up well with Kansas City also, given that they have two coordinators that have ties to the Chiefs' coaching staff. This is a strong bounce back situation for New York as well with three of my situational angles supporting such an occurrence. When three agree in the past, my record has been 19-4-1 ats (83%).

13-pt teaser, ties reduce, +110  ($500 to win $550)

San Diego +15.5
Cincinnati +2
Denver +10
Seattle -2
Indianapolis +10

The nice thing about teasers is you can adjust the number of teams and number of points to make the teaser pay out whatever you want. I usually keep them close to the same as a standard wager as illustrated in my career breakdown which makes them just as difficult to hit as straight wagers. This one is actually TOUGHER at +110 since I'm willing to play a 5-teamer and, as compensation, get 13 points in my favor. First five teamer I've ever played (I've only played 16 teasers in my life). The only game I'm concerned with is San Diego since I've seen some good cappers on Miami at -2.5. I think New England has a fair chance of knocking off Denver but can't see the Broncos losing by double digits. I think the Giants will be tough off a bye on Monday versus the Colts but ditto about double digits.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

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