Thursday, October 2, 2014

NFL

Last week:  3-1

Documented forum record

Career:  325-253-19  (56.2%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)

Past year breakdown:
Sides:  316-249-19  (56%)
Teasers:  5-2-0  (71%)


2014:  4-2-0  (67%)  +$955

This year's breakdown:
ROI:  +28.0%
ATS Sides:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -118
Teasers:  2-1-0  (67%).....average line: -102


WEEK 5


Washington +7 -105  ($525 to win $500)

The Seahawks are not nearly as dominant on the road, scoring 22.0 points per game in the Russell Wilson era vs 29.9 ppg at home. That's almost 8 points less. Their margin of victory away from Seattle is +4.3 ppg. Just 6-6 ats as road favorites and 1-1 of a TD or more. Washington will be hosting this party on Monday night coming off extra rest and after getting blown out by division rival NY by 31. Seattle is off a bye but lost their only other road favorite game off a bye in 2012, 21-24 at Miami as 2.5-point faves. This game has every ingredient for a motivating performance by the under-valued Redskins. I have not locked this line in yet.


6.5-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -110  ($550 to win $500)

Green Bay -3
Denver -2


7.0-pt. teaser, ties reduce, -120  ($600 to win $500)

New Orleans -4
Philadelphia -1

My main purpose for teasers is to play larger favorites that my work shows as having value without having to lay those big lines. The Pack goes Thursday coming off a strong offensive showing against the Bears on Sunday. Bridgewater is questionable. Denver has had two weeks to chew on their tough loss to Seattle. They should be ready to roll versus Arizona who is due for a loss. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. They return home to face a Bucs team that I picked last week when they upset the Steelers. That probably won't happen two weeks in a row. Philly also needs to rebound from a loss when they host the Rams who are going nowhere.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)   Proj. record: 13-3.....Next: W
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)   Proj. record: 11-5.....Next: W

No comments:

Post a Comment