Sunday, November 23, 2014

NFL
Last week:  3-1


Documented forum record

Career:  335-264-19  (55.9%) ATS

2002:  58-47-4  (55%)
2003:  32-23-1  (58%)
2004:  58-64-1  (48%)
2005:  48-34-3  (59%)
2006:  34-29-3  (54%)
2007:  34-24-4  (59%)
2012:  31-19-2  (62%)
2013:  26-11-1  (70%)
2014:  14-13-0  (52%)  +$270.....ROI:  +1.8%

Career breakdown:
Sides:  324-258-19  (56%).....avg line:  -108
Teasers:  11-6-0  (65%).....avg line:  -106


After starting the 2014 season 9-11 in the first nine weeks, I have gone 5-2 in the last two to get back to 52%. Lot of work still left to do and, fortunately, plenty of football left. Here are the "Skeleton System" point spreads for Week 12. I was going to go into detail about what I thought about each game based on this new data but I ran out of time so just the lines here.

sit       act S1 S2 S3 S4
-1 Kansas City -7.0 -7.4 -7.9 -15.1 -16.0
1 Oakland   7.0 7.4 7.9 15.1 16.0
1 Cleveland 3.0 -0.1 -1.1 -2.7 -4.7
-1 Atlanta   -3.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 4.7
1 Tennessee 11.0 9.6 9.9 12.9 13.5
-1 Philadelphia -11.0 -9.6 -9.9 -12.9 -13.5
1 Detroit 8.0 6.5 7.6 9.5 11.7
-1 New England -8.0 -6.5 -7.6 -9.5 -11.7
-1.5 Green Bay -7.5 -7.2 -8.9 -16.6 -20.1
1.5 Minnesota 7.5 7.2 8.9 16.6 20.1
0 Jacksonville 13.5 8.5 5.7 12.1 6.6
0 Indianapolis -13.5 -8.5 -5.7 -12.1 -6.6
0 Cincinnati 1.5 5.3 7.7 6.7 11.6
0 Houston   -1.5 -5.3 -7.7 -6.7 -11.6
-1.5 Tampa Bay 5.5 3.6 2.5 1.9 -0.2
1.5 Chicago   -5.5 -3.6 -2.5 -1.9 0.2
0 Arizona 7.5 -2.9 -0.9 -5.1 -1.2
0 Seattle   -7.5 2.9 0.9 5.1 1.2
0 St. Louis 6.0 1.2 3.1 -3.8 0.0
0 San Diego   -6.0 -1.2 -3.1 3.8 0.0
-1.5 Miami 7.0 -0.5 1.0 -2.3 0.6
1.5 Denver   -7.0 0.5 -1.0 2.3 -0.6
2 Washington 8.5 5.2 7.5 7.1 11.7
-2 San Francisco -8.5 -5.2 -7.5 -7.1 -11.7
-1 Dallas -4.0 -2.6 -3.6 -8.0 -9.9
1 NY Giants 4.0 2.6 3.6 8.0 9.9
0 Baltimore 3.0 1.5 2.4 0.3 2.1
0 New Orleans -3.0 -1.5 -2.4 -0.3 -2.1
-1.5 NY Jets 2.5 7.5 6.5 10.5 8.7
1.5 Buffalo   -2.5 -7.5 -6.5 -10.5 -8.7


WEEK 12

Washington +8.5 -102  ($510 to win $500)

11.5-pt teaser, ties reduce, -105  ($525 to win $500)
Det/NEo 35.5
New England +4.5
Indianapolis -3
Denver +4.5

I'm not utilizing the Skeleton System in my plays just yet. I have a strict and selective method I've used for years that I'm going to stick with at this juncture of the season. I haven't had the proper time to figure out the best way to apply it but it is still legitimate information, four points of reference for each game converted into "true" point spreads for anyone to use to solidify their positions on this weekend's games. I'm quite sure the information, along with the situational angles (sit) will lead you to the right side on several games.


Futures - Regular Season wins

Denver o11.5 +105  ($2500 to win $2625)
New England o10.5 -155  ($2500 to win $1613)

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