Wednesday, November 19, 2014

NFL Skeleton System - Week 10

Ran into a slight problem as I had to re-create the situational angles for each week but the back tracking should go pretty smoothly now.

To clarify any confusion, we're looking for value in the actual line (act) compared to the skeleton lines S1 thru S4, which are what the lines should be based on my work. So we want the actual line to be better and the more the merrier. In other words, the better it is better, the better for the bettor ;) I also show my situational analysis (sit) graded 0 for none, 1 for minor, 2 for strong and 3 for very strong. I also have a temporary category at 1.5 for semi-strong which may end up a 1 or a 2 down the road.

We're back-tracking now to Week 10 and I'll go all the way back to Week 4 eventually. Hoping to have at least three or four weeks done before this weekend so we'll have a little bit of a sample going into Week 12.


WEEK 10 MATCHUPS

sit       act S1 S2 S3 S4
0 Cleveland 6.0 4.0 2.0 4.6 0.5
0 Cincinnati -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.6 -0.5
-1 Dallas -8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.6 -2.7
1 Jacksonville 8.5 -1.3 0.4 -0.6 2.7
0 Miami 3.0 -2.1 -3.5 -6.2 -9.0
0 Detroit   -3.0 2.1 3.5 6.2 9.0
0 Kansas City 2.0 -0.6 -3.4 -2.1 -7.8
0 Buffalo   -2.0 0.6 3.4 2.1 7.8
0 San Francisco 6.0 7.7 6.4 10.2 7.6
0 New Orleans -6.0 -7.7 -6.4 -10.2 -7.6
1 Tennessee 10.5 9.3 8.0 12.5 9.9
-1 Baltimore   -10.5 -9.3 -8.0 -12.5 -9.9
-2 Pittsburgh -4.5 -4.8 -6.9 -12.4 -16.7
2 NY Jets   4.5 4.8 6.9 12.4 16.7
1 Atlanta -3.0 3.3 3.3 4.6 4.8
-1 Tampa Bay 3.0 -3.3 -3.3 -4.6 -4.8
0 Denver -12.0 -5.6 -10.6 -12.2 -22.1
0 Oakland   12.0 5.6 10.6 12.2 22.1
0 St. Louis 7.0 10.0 10.5 14.1 15.1
0 Arizona   -7.0 -10.0 -10.5 -14.1 -15.1
1 NY Giants 9.0 2.7 4.8 4.7 8.7
-1 Seattle   -9.0 -2.7 -4.8 -4.7 -8.7
0 Chicago 8.5 7.8 10.3 13.3 18.4
0 Green Bay   -8.5 -7.8 -10.3 -13.3 -18.4
0 Carolina 7.0 9.8 9.2 16.1 15.1
0 Philadelphia -7.0 -9.8 -9.2 -16.1 -15.1


RESULTS - Weeks 10-11, 27 games

S1 - all games: 15-12.......not opposing sit: 13-10.......with line value of 2.1+: 9-6 (60%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 4-4.......0: 6-6.......-1: 1-1.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0

S2 - all games: 14-13.......not opposing sit: 12-8.......with line value of 3.5+: 7-4 (64%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-4.......0: 8-4.......-1: 1-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 0-0

S3 - all games: 15-12.......not opposing sit: 12-7.......with line value of 4.8+: 7-3 (70%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-3.......0: 8-4.......-1: 2-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 0-0

S4 - all games: 14-13.......not opposing sit: 11-6.......with line value of 2.8+: 11-3 (79%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-3.......0: 9-3.......-1: 2-4.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 0-0


And a slight variation (not pictured) for tracking purposes

S1 - all games: 15-12.......not opposing sit: 13-10.......with line value of 3.0+: 8-5 (62%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 4-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 3-4.......0: 6-6.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0

S2 - all games: 15-12.......not opposing sit: 13-9.......with line value of 4.8+: 4-2 (67%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 4-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-4.......0: 7-5.......-1: 1-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-0.......-3: 0-0


S3 - all games: 15-12.......not opposing sit: 13-8.......with line value of 2.7+: 7-3 (70%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 2-4.......0: 8-4.......-1: 1-3.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 0-0


S4 - all games: 14-13.......not opposing sit: 12-7.......with line value of 3.2+: 10-3 (77%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 0-0.......1: 1-4.......0: 9-3.......-1: 1-4.......-1.5: 1-0.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 0-0



Basically, the playable games from this will end up being games that differ the most from the actual line but also don't oppose any situational angles. Makes sense, right? Those plays are being tracked where it says "with line value of x.x". The cutoff point of how much the value needs to differ from the actual line will change a little from week to week until things settle in. I'm just looking for where the pocket of strength is.

Week 10 was not as strong as Week 11 across the board but the line value plays held up nicely. Everything at 60% or better through two weeks, especially the first S4 at 11-3. Fourteen plays is an awful lot for two weeks so those will probably get tightened up a bit.

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