We're looking for value in the actual line (act) compared to the skeleton lines S1 thru S4, which are what the lines should be based on my work. So we want the actual line to be better and the more the merrier. In other words, the better it is better, the better for the bettor ;) I also show my situational analysis (sit) graded 0 for none, 1 for minor, 2 for strong and 3 for very strong. I also have a temporary category at 1.5 for semi-strong which may end up a 1 or a 2 down the road.
WEEK 9 MATCHUPS
RESULTS - Weeks 9-11, 40 games
S1 - all games: 19-20-1.......not opposing sit: 16-16-1.......with line value of 2.4+: 10-9-1 (53%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 6-5-1.......0: 7-9.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 1-0
S2 - all games: 19-20-1.......not opposing sit: 15-13-1.......with line value of 1.8+: 12-10-1 (55%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 4-4-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 2-4.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 1-0
S3 - all games: 21-18-1.......not opposing sit: 15-10-1.......with line value of 0.2+: 14-11-1 (56%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 3-3-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 3-5.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 1-0
S4 - all games: 19-19-1.......not opposing sit: 13-9-1.......with line value of 4.3+: 11-5-1 (69%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 1-3-1.......0: 10-6.......-1: 3-6.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
And a slight variation (not pictured) for tracking purposes
S1 - all games: 20-18-1.......not opposing sit: 17-14-1.......with line value of 0.3+: 17-13-1 (57%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 5-5-1.......0: 8-8.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 1-0
S2 - all games: 18-21-1.......not opposing sit: 14-13-1.......with line value of 1.3+: 14-10-1 (58%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 3-5-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 2-4.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
S3 - all games: 20-19-1.......not opposing sit: 15-10.......with line value of 0.5+: 15-10 (60%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 0-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 3-5.......0: 11-5.......-1: 2-4-1.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-4.......-3: 1-0
S4 - all games: 20-19-1.......not opposing sit: 13-8-1.......with line value of 5.8+: 8-3 (73%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 0-3-1.......0: 11-5.......-1: 4-7.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
Week 9 struggled a bit with the first S4 going 0-2-1 but still 11-5-1 (69%) for all plays that are 4.3+ points away from the actual line. The variation lines had a slight glitch that I corrected. I had to open up most of the line value plays (in bold) so the percentages dropped but those will all be tightened up eventually when things solidify a little. I would expect the stronger plays to eventually be at least 3 or 4 points away from the actual line and the only two that are there right now are both near 70% ATS after a handful of games.
WEEK 9 MATCHUPS
| sit | act | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | |||
| -1.5 | New Orleans | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -7.3 | -6.2 | ||
| 1.5 | Carolina | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | ||
| 1 | San Diego | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 7.0 | ||
| -1 | Miami | -2.5 | -2.1 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -7.0 | ||
| 1 | Jacksonville | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | ||
| -1 | Cincinnati | -10.0 | -5.0 | -3.7 | -5.6 | -2.8 | ||
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 7.0 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 14.1 | 19.9 | ||
| -1 | Cleveland | -7.0 | -10.2 | -13.1 | -14.1 | -19.9 | ||
| 0 | Washington | -1.0 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.4 | ||
| 0 | Minnesota | 1.0 | -1.6 | -3.2 | -0.3 | -3.4 | ||
| 0 | Philadelphia | -2.0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 5.2 | ||
| 0 | Houston | 2.0 | -1.8 | -3.7 | -1.4 | -5.2 | ||
| 3 | NY Jets | 9.0 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 17.1 | 21.8 | ||
| -3 | Kansas City | -9.0 | -11.5 | -13.9 | -17.1 | -21.8 | ||
| 0 | Arizona | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 7.1 | ||
| 0 | Dallas | 0.0 | -2.3 | -4.8 | -1.9 | -7.1 | ||
| 1 | St. Louis | 10.5 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 14.1 | 12.4 | ||
| -1 | San Francisco | -10.5 | -10.3 | -9.4 | -14.1 | -12.4 | ||
| -1.5 | Denver | -3.0 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -3.9 | -4.5 | ||
| 1.5 | New England | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 4.5 | ||
| 1 | Oakland | 13.0 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 13.0 | ||
| -1 | Seattle | -13.0 | -5.3 | -7.6 | -8.4 | -13.0 | ||
| 0 | Baltimore | 2.0 | -1.6 | -0.2 | -3.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 0 | Pittsburgh | -2.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 | ||
| 1.5 | Indianapolis | -3.0 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -6.5 | -4.2 | ||
| -1.5 | NY Giants | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 4.2 | ||
RESULTS - Weeks 9-11, 40 games
S1 - all games: 19-20-1.......not opposing sit: 16-16-1.......with line value of 2.4+: 10-9-1 (53%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 6-5-1.......0: 7-9.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 1-0
S2 - all games: 19-20-1.......not opposing sit: 15-13-1.......with line value of 1.8+: 12-10-1 (55%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 4-4-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 2-4.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 1-0
S3 - all games: 21-18-1.......not opposing sit: 15-10-1.......with line value of 0.2+: 14-11-1 (56%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 2-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 3-3-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 3-5.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-2.......-3: 1-0
S4 - all games: 19-19-1.......not opposing sit: 13-9-1.......with line value of 4.3+: 11-5-1 (69%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 1-3-1.......0: 10-6.......-1: 3-6.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
And a slight variation (not pictured) for tracking purposes
S1 - all games: 20-18-1.......not opposing sit: 17-14-1.......with line value of 0.3+: 17-13-1 (57%)
S1 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 3-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 5-5-1.......0: 8-8.......-1: 1-2.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-1.......-3: 1-0
S2 - all games: 18-21-1.......not opposing sit: 14-13-1.......with line value of 1.3+: 14-10-1 (58%)
S2 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-1.......1: 3-5-1.......0: 9-7.......-1: 2-4.......-1.5: 1-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
S3 - all games: 20-19-1.......not opposing sit: 15-10.......with line value of 0.5+: 15-10 (60%)
S3 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 0-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 3-5.......0: 11-5.......-1: 2-4-1.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-4.......-3: 1-0
S4 - all games: 20-19-1.......not opposing sit: 13-8-1.......with line value of 5.8+: 8-3 (73%)
S4 - with sits.......3: 0-0.......2: 1-0.......1.5: 1-0.......1: 0-3-1.......0: 11-5.......-1: 4-7.......-1.5: 2-1.......-2: 0-3.......-3: 1-0
Week 9 struggled a bit with the first S4 going 0-2-1 but still 11-5-1 (69%) for all plays that are 4.3+ points away from the actual line. The variation lines had a slight glitch that I corrected. I had to open up most of the line value plays (in bold) so the percentages dropped but those will all be tightened up eventually when things solidify a little. I would expect the stronger plays to eventually be at least 3 or 4 points away from the actual line and the only two that are there right now are both near 70% ATS after a handful of games.
No comments:
Post a Comment