2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  2-3 +0.01

I was just mentioning regression to the mean yesterday regarding underdogs being 2-11 and favorites being 12-4 and wouldn't ya know dogs go 2-0 last night and favorites go 0-3. All in all, made a penny as two nice dog wins lower the average money line to -104.


YTD:  -2.57 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 34
ROI: -7.6 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.96 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -104
Winning % required to break even: 50.9%
Current YTD winning %: 47.1%

Favorites: 19 games, +3.14 units
Underdogs: 15 games, -5.71 units

Runs scored per game: 4.26
Runs allowed per game: 4.18  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

N/A


Today's selections

None

Nothing today. In fact, might have to cut baseball short this season as I have more incentive to do well in the upcoming NFL season and need the extra time to do some work in that sport. Plus, going to be in Vegas all week next week. Usually I go all the way to the end with baseball. This TARP baseball system is showing a profit of 23.73 units for the year in 436 games and a 6.1% ROI. I didn't get here to post until recently due to time restraints and only able to show 34 games for -2.57 units. I also do live baseball and soccer wagering during the days so I desperately need to free up some time. Best of luck.

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-2 -2.00

Lost both games yesterday. Underdogs are now a mind-boggling 2-11 so far, which is usually the other way around in this system, and favorites are 12-4. Expect some regression to the mean.


YTD:  -2.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 29
ROI: -8.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 48.3%

Favorites: 16 games, +6.14 units
Underdogs: 13 games, -8.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 4.24  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Washington			0.6	-0.8	3.8	-128	-111
Philadelphia			-0.2	-0.9	3.1	118	101
St. Louis			0.8	-1.3	2.6	135	121
Pittsburgh			0.8	-2.3	3.6	-145	-131
Tampa Bay			-0.6	-2.3	2.3	138	103
Baltimore			1.4	-1.2	3.2	-148	-113
Boston			0.6	1.0	4.6	-110	140
Toronto			-0.7	-0.1	4.4	100	-150
NY Yankees			0.0	-1.6	2.9	121	-107
Detroit			1.1	-1.2	3.6	-131	-103
Chi Cubs			0.2	0.9	3.5	101	163
Cincinnati			-1.3	-0.8	3.7	-111	-173
Atlanta			0.6	-1.2	5.5	-191	-153
NY Mets			0.1	0.8	3.0	181	143
Oakland			0.2	1.1	3.8	126	-119
Houston			-0.2	-0.5	5.0	-136	109
Minnesota			1.7	1.1	3.8	141	152
Kansas City			0.3	-2.0	5.5	-151	-162
Cleveland			-0.5	-0.7	3.0	101	138
Chi WhSox			-0.2	-0.6	3.2	-111	-148
LA Dodgers			0.2	-0.7	3.6	-135	-110
Arizona			-0.6	-0.7	2.8	125	100
Miami			0.4	-0.2	3.0	121	161
LA Angels			-0.1	-1.5	3.8	-131	-171
Texas			-0.1	0.8	2.9	167	185
Seattle			0.2	-1.1	5.1	-177	-200
Milwaukee			1.7	0.8	4.1	99	110
San Diego			-0.6	-1.7	4.3	-109	-120
Colorado			2.0	-0.3	5.3	-117	195
San Francisco			0.9	-0.8	4.7	107	-215

Today's selections

Washington -111
NY Yankees -107
Chi Cubs +163
Oakland -119
Cleveland +138

Two of these games have started due to my tardiness. Washington is 0-0 and NY Yankees are 1-0 as of post time.

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Friday:  1-1 -0.22

Detroit lost 20-6 Friday night to the Minnesota Twins which helped bring my runs allowed from 3.44 to 4.11 along with the 5 that Miami allowed. It will take a little time to balance out that huge, disproportionate spike to the average but still a +0.48 average margin of victory overall.


YTD:  -0.58 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 27
ROI: -2.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 51.9%

Favorites: 15 games, +7.14 units
Underdogs: 12 games, -7.72 units

Runs scored per game: 4.59
Runs allowed per game: 4.11  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .672
OPS allowed per game: .665  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Washington			0.8	-0.7	5.8	-202	-131
Philadelphia			-0.4	0.9	3.0	192	121
St. Louis			0.8	0.2	4.3	114	135
Pittsburgh			0.8	-0.6	5.1	-124	-145
Milwaukee			1.3	0.6	4.6	-115	-132
San Diego			-0.5	-0.8	4.2	105	122
Colorado			2.4	2.2	6.4	110	178
San Francisco			1.1	-0.1	7.4	-120	-188
Tampa Bay			-0.5	-1.4	1.3	271	105
Baltimore			0.8	-2.3	3.5	-281	-115
Boston			0.6	0.7	4.1	101	105
Toronto			-0.4	-0.6	4.4	-111	-115
Oakland			0.2	-0.4	5.8	-168	-163
Houston			-0.1	1.5	3.6	158	153
NY Yankees			-0.4	0.0	3.0	152	125
Kansas City			0.6	-0.7	4.7	-162	-135
Texas			0.0	0.6	4.0	127	155
Seattle			0.6	-0.1	5.3	-137	-165
Miami			0.3	-0.4	4.4	-122	154
LA Angels			0.1	0.0	3.8	112	-164

Today's selections

Washington -131
Tampa Bay +105

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  0-0 +0.00

Defense wins championships and I geared this system to predict the defensive side of the ball more. So far, the results have played this out, albeit after only a small sample size posted here. My average runs allowed per game so far is 3.44, which is 0.66 rpg less than the major league average of 4.10. As long as my offenses can produce close to average I should be alright. My rpg is above average at 4.20 but my OPS is lacking a bit at just .650, although higher than the .625 for my opponents. Just negative variance so far being slightly in the red with a +0.76 average margin of victory.


YTD:  -0.36 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 25
ROI: -1.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.90 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 52.0%

Favorites: 14 games, +6.36 units
Underdogs: 11 games, -6.72 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.20
Runs allowed per game: 3.44  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .650
OPS allowed per game: .625  (MLB avg is .706)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
St. Louis			1.4	-0.8	7.6	-242	-156
Philadelphia			-0.1	2.1	3.2	232	146
San Francisco			0.6	0.7	2.8	183	139
Washington			0.5	-1.9	5.3	-193	-149
Atlanta			1.2	1.1	5.1	-124	-103
Cincinnati			-0.9	-0.2	4.3	114	-107
Pittsburgh			0.5	1.4	4.1	160	136
Milwaukee			1.3	-0.5	6.8	-170	-146
Miami			0.0	-0.6	5.0	96	-128
Colorado			1.5	0.9	5.0	-106	118
San Diego			0.4	-0.3	5.2	-192	100
Arizona			-1.0	0.7	2.8	182	-110
NY Mets			-0.7	1.1	2.5	199	119
LA Dodgers			-0.1	-0.9	5.1	-209	-129
Houston			0.5	2.8	4.6	143	176
Cleveland			-0.1	0.0	6.8	-153	-186
Chi WhSox			-0.3	1.8	2.0	270	169
NY Yankees			-0.3	-1.8	5.6	-280	-179
Tampa Bay			-0.8	-0.5	2.4	145	112
Toronto			-0.1	-0.9	3.5	-155	-122
Seattle			0.6	-2.6	5.9	-510	-184
Boston			-0.3	1.2	1.2	500	174
Kansas City			0.9	-0.8	5.1	-170	-140
Texas			-0.2	0.1	3.1	160	130
Detroit			0.3	0.0	4.7	99	100
Minnesota			0.8	0.3	4.9	-109	-110
LA Angels			-0.5	-1.7	1.9	107	144
Oakland			-0.2	-1.7	2.2	-117	-154
Baltimore			1.3	-0.3	4.3	-120	-106
Chi Cubs			-0.1	-1.1	3.7	110	-104

Today's selections

Miami -128
Detroit +100