NBA
Wednesday: 1-1
YTD: 39-37-1 (52%) -0.10 units
Breakdown:
Sides: 21-18-1 +2.17 units
Totals: 16-19 -4.27 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units
Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)
5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Atlanta -6 (pending)
Closing out my open teaser and also closing out my NBA season quite a bit early. I consulted a respected colleague of mine about this NBA prediction model that I restructured this season and began tracking on January 5th and we concluded that the 300+ predictions so far were of excellent quality. Generally, the linear regression model run on the predictions indicated that the picks have an above-average base of 50.65% and get progressively more accurate by 1.22% for every point of value over the oddsmaker's line, so a line I create that is 5 points different from the actual line should win at a 56.8% ATS rate, for example.
While that is encouraging despite the limited sample size, I also know that my work is not complete. It's a great starting point but there is an obvious weakness in there as well regarding making an adjustment for lineup changes like injuries or trades. That's the area I need to tighten up and, being around the trading deadline, I'm anticipating more and more inaccuracies in my line predictions as the season winds down so I'm closing up shop to work on that because it will be no small task. Actually I'm expecting it to be a huge project of top notch work to match the work I put into the foundation that I already have.
Thanks to those of you who followed along for the brief month and a half that I was posting the plays. I was hovering around 60% for the first month and sat at 32-24-1 (57%) at the All-Star break. I'll probably skip the week or so after the break next year as there was clearly a disruption in continuity with most teams having 8-11 days off without playing. My 7-13 mark since the break brought my record all the way down to 39-37-1 ATS.
Next season everything will be in place so you can expect a great NBA season with several hundred picks from November to April. I'm also eagerly anticipating my baseball selections that will start in a couple months. Got some good stuff there too! I usually do NHL at the same time as NBA but may or may not replace that with college basketball next season since I'm a lot more comfortable with my basketball handicapping now. NFL, which has always been my most successful league, will see an opening up of selections in 2015 to where I expect 70-90 picks instead of my usual 50-60. It's going to be a good year and it will all be posted right here at this blog.
Best wishes,
Bruce
Wednesday: 1-1
YTD: 39-37-1 (52%) -0.10 units
Breakdown:
Sides: 21-18-1 +2.17 units
Totals: 16-19 -4.27 units
Teasers: 2-0 +2.00 units
Today's plays (all plays for 1 unit)
5-pt. teaser, ties reduce -110
Golden State -3 (won on Friday)
Atlanta -6 (pending)
Closing out my open teaser and also closing out my NBA season quite a bit early. I consulted a respected colleague of mine about this NBA prediction model that I restructured this season and began tracking on January 5th and we concluded that the 300+ predictions so far were of excellent quality. Generally, the linear regression model run on the predictions indicated that the picks have an above-average base of 50.65% and get progressively more accurate by 1.22% for every point of value over the oddsmaker's line, so a line I create that is 5 points different from the actual line should win at a 56.8% ATS rate, for example.
While that is encouraging despite the limited sample size, I also know that my work is not complete. It's a great starting point but there is an obvious weakness in there as well regarding making an adjustment for lineup changes like injuries or trades. That's the area I need to tighten up and, being around the trading deadline, I'm anticipating more and more inaccuracies in my line predictions as the season winds down so I'm closing up shop to work on that because it will be no small task. Actually I'm expecting it to be a huge project of top notch work to match the work I put into the foundation that I already have.
Thanks to those of you who followed along for the brief month and a half that I was posting the plays. I was hovering around 60% for the first month and sat at 32-24-1 (57%) at the All-Star break. I'll probably skip the week or so after the break next year as there was clearly a disruption in continuity with most teams having 8-11 days off without playing. My 7-13 mark since the break brought my record all the way down to 39-37-1 ATS.
Next season everything will be in place so you can expect a great NBA season with several hundred picks from November to April. I'm also eagerly anticipating my baseball selections that will start in a couple months. Got some good stuff there too! I usually do NHL at the same time as NBA but may or may not replace that with college basketball next season since I'm a lot more comfortable with my basketball handicapping now. NFL, which has always been my most successful league, will see an opening up of selections in 2015 to where I expect 70-90 picks instead of my usual 50-60. It's going to be a good year and it will all be posted right here at this blog.
Best wishes,
Bruce
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