2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  -0.17

Couldn't get the 14-inning game to fall my way so ended up splitting the two favorites and lost some juice. Actually, that Tampa loss wasn't really close as they had a net OPS of -.257. They managed just 7 hits in 14 innings and, statistically, played to a 4-1 loss instead of the actual 3-2. No problems with Seattle as they played to a 5-3 win statistically (6-3 actual) and a net OPS of +.210.


YTD:  -0.49 units (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

Games played: 8
ROI: -6.1 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.88 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -114
Winning % required to break even: 53.2%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%

Favorites: 4 games, +1.44 units
Underdogs: 4 games, -1.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 3.38
Average OPS per game: .640
OPS allowed per game: .644


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Boston			-0.5	0.0	4.1	-121	119
Cincinnati			-0.7	0.4	3.5	111	-129
Minnesota			0.7	-0.6	3.6	113	-108
Houston			0.7	-1.3	4.2	-123	-102
Chi WhSox			0.6	-0.1	4.6	-130	109
San Francisco			-0.4	-0.1	3.7	120	-119
Arizona			-0.1	0.3	4.4	111	147
Cleveland			0.7	0.3	5.1	-121	-157
Colorado			0.0	2.5	3.1	219	143
San Diego			0.3	-1.1	7.0	-229	-153
NY Yankees			0.2	0.0	2.4	236	102
Baltimore			1.5	-2.0	5.7	-246	-112
Pittsburgh			1.4	-0.7	4.8	-147	-101
Detroit			-0.1	-0.8	3.4	137	-109
St. Louis			0.2	2.2	4.1	153	101
Miami			0.1	-0.3	6.5	-163	-111
Washington			0.3	-0.5	4.5	-141	-114
NY Mets			-0.4	0.0	3.3	131	104
LA Dodgers			-0.1	-1.4	2.7	102	117
Atlanta			0.1	-1.4	2.8	-112	-127
Tampa Bay			-0.1	-1.7	4.2	-187	-139
Texas			-0.2	0.1	2.3	177	129
Milwaukee			0.7	0.2	4.2	-105	-122
Chi Cubs			-0.2	-0.7	4.2	95	112
Oakland			0.1	-0.6	3.6	111	-110
Kansas City			0.6	-0.7	4.1	-121	100
Philadelphia			-0.6	1.1	2.5	186	176
LA Angels			-0.4	-1.0	4.9	-196	-186
Toronto			0.2	-0.3	1.9	226	151
Seattle			0.5	-2.5	4.4	-236	-161

Today's selections

San Francisco -119  (1 unit to win 0.84)

Giants register thanks to their defensive numbers. Both teams have not been playing well as of late.


Baltimore -112  (1 unit to win 0.89)

Yankees' Pineda making his first start in a long time. Should show some rust. Orioles have all the numbers going for them. I'm showing a huge edge in the line. Tillman's starts have shown a TARP adjustment of -2.0 runs for the opposition.


Miami -111  (1 unit to win 0.90)

Another game with nice value. Masterson's been shaky for his new club.