2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  +0.73

Took two out of three favorites.


YTD:  +0.25 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

Games played: 11
ROI: +2.2 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.87 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -114
Winning % required to break even: 53.4%
Current YTD winning %: 54.5%

Favorites: 7 games, +2.18 units
Underdogs: 4 games, -1.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.45
Runs allowed per game: 3.27
Average OPS per game: .613
OPS allowed per game: .627


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
LA Dodgers			0.0	-0.9	5.1	-156	121
Atlanta			0.1	0.9	3.4	146	-131
Pittsburgh			1.3	-1.2	3.8	-116	183
Detroit			0.5	-1.7	3.4	106	-195
Oakland			-0.3	-1.1	2.8	124	101
Kansas City			0.5	-1.1	3.6	-134	-111
Milwaukee			0.7	0.0	5.1	-126	-128
Chi Cubs			0.0	0.2	4.2	116	118
Houston			0.5	1.0	4.7	-108	145
Boston			-0.7	0.0	4.5	98	-155
Washington			0.3	0.1	4.9	-131	-155
NY Mets			-0.4	0.4	3.9	121	145
Arizona			-0.7	0.1	3.5	107	111
Miami			-0.4	0.0	3.9	-117	-121
Tampa Bay			0.2	-1.2	4.4	-171	-136
Texas			-0.3	0.0	2.6	161	126
San Diego			0.3	-0.6	5.6	-154	170
St. Louis			0.2	1.1	3.8	144	-180
Cincinnati			-0.5	0.1	4.1	101	112
Colorado			0.0	0.4	4.3	-111	-122

Today's selections

Miami -119  (1 unit to win 0.84)

Marlins have the better defensive numbers by enough of a margin. 4-2 L6 and Arizona 4-7 L11.


San Diego +170  (1 unit to win 1.70)

Big dog against a shaky John Lackey in St. Louis.


Cincinnati +116  (1 unit to win 1.16)

Both teams have been struggling but Cincy knows they need to take this series in Colorado to stay in the pennant race.