MLB TARP Analysis - 2014 (TARP = Team Adjusted Run Production)
Split the four games last post (Wednesday), going -0.93 on the three dogs and winning +0.83 on the lone favorite as Kansas City sweeps Arizona. I forgot to mention, but displayed this in a previous post, that all games are risked at exactly ONE unit. This will help vs. betting "to win" one unit in the long run, every time a favorite loses. So far, my only two favorites have won. I'll have more dogs than faves, though, and a low average price. Lower than a standard football or basketball wager in Vegas (-110). I've found over the last three or four years with this particular system that my plays are strongest up to -133 for road favorites and -124 for home favorites. I don't exceed those limits unless the play has something else going for it. These limits can change a cent or two year to year but I think I've found the pocket in that range and those limits tend to make my average money line less than -110 usually after underdogs are factored in.
Wednesday: -0.10
YTD: -0.32 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
Games played: 6
ROI: -5.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%
Favorites: 2 games, +1.61 units
Underdogs: 4 games, -1.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.50
Runs allowed per game: 3.50
Average OPS per game: .656
OPS allowed per game: .653
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
Today's selections
Tampa Bay -116 (1 unit to win 0.86)
Rays have the +1.3 projected run advantage, which would represent a 25-cent edge in the line. In Tepesch's last ten starts, the Rangers' defensive TARP number is +0.8.
Seattle -120 (1 unit to win 0.83)
Mariners are 6-1 in their L7; Blue Jays are on a 3-7 run. Seattle gets the nod due to their defensive edge over the Jays.
Split the four games last post (Wednesday), going -0.93 on the three dogs and winning +0.83 on the lone favorite as Kansas City sweeps Arizona. I forgot to mention, but displayed this in a previous post, that all games are risked at exactly ONE unit. This will help vs. betting "to win" one unit in the long run, every time a favorite loses. So far, my only two favorites have won. I'll have more dogs than faves, though, and a low average price. Lower than a standard football or basketball wager in Vegas (-110). I've found over the last three or four years with this particular system that my plays are strongest up to -133 for road favorites and -124 for home favorites. I don't exceed those limits unless the play has something else going for it. These limits can change a cent or two year to year but I think I've found the pocket in that range and those limits tend to make my average money line less than -110 usually after underdogs are factored in.
Wednesday: -0.10
YTD: -0.32 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
Games played: 6
ROI: -5.4 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -112
Winning % required to break even: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%
Favorites: 2 games, +1.61 units
Underdogs: 4 games, -1.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units
Runs scored per game: 4.50
Runs allowed per game: 3.50
Average OPS per game: .656
OPS allowed per game: .653
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
| OFF | DEF | RUNS | rLINE | aLINE | |||
| Arizona | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.0 | 110 | 165 | ||
| Cleveland | 0.7 | -0.1 | 4.6 | -120 | -175 | ||
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 152 | 110 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 1.4 | -0.6 | 5.5 | -162 | -120 | ||
| Washington | -0.1 | -1.6 | 4.1 | -190 | -139 | ||
| NY Mets | -0.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 180 | 129 | ||
| Boston | -0.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 269 | 121 | ||
| Cincinnati | -0.4 | -1.6 | 5.5 | -279 | -131 | ||
| St. Louis | 0.6 | -1.2 | 4.9 | -176 | -133 | ||
| Miami | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 166 | 123 | ||
| LA Dodgers | 0.2 | -0.4 | 6.3 | -164 | 114 | ||
| Atlanta | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 154 | -124 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 0.3 | -0.4 | 4.9 | -142 | -117 | ||
| Texas | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 132 | 107 | ||
| Milwaukee | 0.8 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 165 | -123 | ||
| Chi Cubs | -0.2 | -2.8 | 3.6 | -175 | 113 | ||
| Oakland | -0.4 | -2.6 | 3.6 | -176 | -142 | ||
| Kansas City | 0.5 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 166 | 132 | ||
| Minnesota | 0.7 | -0.3 | 5.0 | -128 | 130 | ||
| Houston | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 118 | -140 | ||
| Philadelphia | -0.3 | 0.0 | 6.0 | -175 | 228 | ||
| LA Angels | -0.7 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 165 | -248 | ||
| Colorado | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 139 | 132 | ||
| San Diego | 0.6 | -0.4 | 5.7 | -149 | -142 | ||
| Toronto | 0.5 | -1.0 | 4.5 | -132 | 112 | ||
| Seattle | 0.4 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 122 | -122 | ||
| Chi WhSox | 0.7 | -0.4 | 4.5 | -132 | -109 | ||
| San Francisco | -0.2 | -0.4 | 3.5 | 122 | -101 | ||
Today's selections
Tampa Bay -116 (1 unit to win 0.86)
Rays have the +1.3 projected run advantage, which would represent a 25-cent edge in the line. In Tepesch's last ten starts, the Rangers' defensive TARP number is +0.8.
Seattle -120 (1 unit to win 0.83)
Mariners are 6-1 in their L7; Blue Jays are on a 3-7 run. Seattle gets the nod due to their defensive edge over the Jays.
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