2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  -1.16

The results from my last post are not factored into the record yet. Very busy....


YTD:  -0.91 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 26% of all games
Games played: 14
ROI: -6.5 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.87 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -115
Winning % required to break even: 53.5%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%

Favorites: 8 games, +3.02 units
Underdogs: 6 games, -3.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.29
Runs allowed per game: 3.64
Average OPS per game: .635
OPS allowed per game: .637


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Atlanta			0.9	1.1	3.8	165	139
Pittsburgh			1.1	-1.3	6.4	-175	-149
Arizona			-0.8	0.7	2.7	185	217
Washington			0.3	-0.6	5.2	-195	-237
San Francisco			0.1	-0.9	3.5	-137	-110
Chi Cubs			-0.6	-0.8	2.6	127	100
Cincinnati			-0.4	0.3	4.5	109	153
St. Louis			0.7	0.8	5.2	-119	-163
San Diego			0.3	-1.0	4.4	-152	-101
LA Dodgers			-0.2	-0.1	3.0	142	-109
Houston			0.9	-1.1	5.5	-188	158
NY Yankees			0.0	0.5	3.0	178	-168
LA Angels			-0.5	-0.7	3.4	-113	-125
Boston			-0.3	-0.2	3.2	103	115
Detroit			0.4	-2.1	2.6	-146	-124
Tampa Bay			-0.2	-2.0	1.8	136	114
Cleveland			-0.1	-0.2	3.1	153	-108
Minnesota			0.9	-1.0	4.8	-163	-102
Baltimore			1.4	-1.9	5.0	-212	-107
Chi WhSox			0.2	-0.5	2.4	202	-103
Seattle			0.5	-2.7	5.7	-407	-159
Philadelphia			0.0	1.1	1.4	397	149
Texas			-0.3	0.8	3.2	150	129
Miami			0.0	-0.6	5.0	-160	-139
Toronto			0.0	-0.8	4.1	101	141
Milwaukee			1.0	0.0	4.4	-111	-151
Kansas City			1.2	-1.0	7.8	-180	-143
Colorado			1.3	2.4	4.4	170	133
NY Mets			-1.1	0.3	2.2	175	222
Oakland			-0.4	-0.8	4.0	-185	-242

Today's selections

LA Angels -125
Baltimore -107
Cleveland -108