2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  -1.16

Won the lone favorite and lost both dogs, including a 4-3 heartbreaker with San Diego at +170 as the tying run got gunned down at home-plate in the 9th inning.


YTD:  -0.91 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 26% of all games
Games played: 14
ROI: -6.5 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.87 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -115
Winning % required to break even: 53.5%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%

Favorites: 8 games, +3.02 units
Underdogs: 6 games, -3.93 units
Even money: 0 games, +0.00 units

Runs scored per game: 4.29
Runs allowed per game: 3.64
Average OPS per game: .635
OPS allowed per game: .637


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
Pittsburgh			1.1	0.5	4.9	96	0
Washington			0.3	-0.4	4.9	-106	0
Chi Cubs			-0.3	1.0	3.8	111	0
NY Mets			-0.7	0.0	4.4	-121	0
Arizona			-0.8	-1.1	2.5	119	0
Miami			0.0	-0.9	3.1	-129	0
San Diego			0.1	-2.0	2.7	-117	0
St. Louis			0.2	-1.6	2.4	107	0
Cincinnati			-0.6	-1.6	4.5	-183	0
Colorado			-0.1	0.9	2.5	173	0
Milwaukee			0.8	-0.1	3.7	110	0
LA Dodgers			0.1	-1.3	4.2	-120	0
Philadelphia			-0.5	-1.8	2.6	-141	0
San Francisco			-0.5	-1.1	1.9	131	0
Seattle			0.5	0.0	3.8	114	0
Detroit			0.4	-0.8	4.6	-124	0
Baltimore			1.3	-0.5	2.7	141	0
Cleveland			0.3	-2.7	4.0	-151	0
NY Yankees			0.3	-0.5	3.1	119	0
Tampa Bay			0.2	-1.3	3.9	-129	0
Houston			0.5	0.0	5.4	-146	0
Boston			-0.3	0.7	3.8	136	0
LA Angels			-0.4	-2.4	4.8	-369	0
Texas			-0.4	1.1	1.3	359	0
Kansas City			0.7	-1.6	5.6	-170	0
Minnesota			0.8	0.8	3.4	160	0
Toronto			0.1	-2.0	3.6	-149	0
Chi WhSox			0.4	-0.6	2.5	139	0
Oakland			-0.2	0.4	3.2	144	0
Atlanta			0.3	-0.7	4.8	-154	0

Today's selections

Chi Cubs +134
San Diego +117
Seattle +121
Baltimore +138
Oakland +116