2014 MLB TARP Analysis (Team Adjusted Run Production)
Yesterday: 0-2 -2.00
Lost both games yesterday. Underdogs are now a mind-boggling 2-11 so far, which is usually the other way around in this system, and favorites are 12-4. Expect some regression to the mean.
YTD: -2.58 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 29
ROI: -8.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 48.3%
Favorites: 16 games, +6.14 units
Underdogs: 13 games, -8.72 units
Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 4.24 (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689 (MLB avg is .703)
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
Today's selections
Washington -111
NY Yankees -107
Chi Cubs +163
Oakland -119
Cleveland +138
Two of these games have started due to my tardiness. Washington is 0-0 and NY Yankees are 1-0 as of post time.
Yesterday: 0-2 -2.00
Lost both games yesterday. Underdogs are now a mind-boggling 2-11 so far, which is usually the other way around in this system, and favorites are 12-4. Expect some regression to the mean.
YTD: -2.58 units (@ 1 unit each)
Handicapping the handicapping
System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 29
ROI: -8.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.89 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -113
Winning % required to break even: 53.0%
Current YTD winning %: 48.3%
Favorites: 16 games, +6.14 units
Underdogs: 13 games, -8.72 units
Runs scored per game: 4.38
Runs allowed per game: 4.24 (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689 (MLB avg is .703)
Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:
| OFF | DEF | RUNS | rLINE | aLINE | |||
| Washington | 0.6 | -0.8 | 3.8 | -128 | -111 | ||
| Philadelphia | -0.2 | -0.9 | 3.1 | 118 | 101 | ||
| St. Louis | 0.8 | -1.3 | 2.6 | 135 | 121 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 0.8 | -2.3 | 3.6 | -145 | -131 | ||
| Tampa Bay | -0.6 | -2.3 | 2.3 | 138 | 103 | ||
| Baltimore | 1.4 | -1.2 | 3.2 | -148 | -113 | ||
| Boston | 0.6 | 1.0 | 4.6 | -110 | 140 | ||
| Toronto | -0.7 | -0.1 | 4.4 | 100 | -150 | ||
| NY Yankees | 0.0 | -1.6 | 2.9 | 121 | -107 | ||
| Detroit | 1.1 | -1.2 | 3.6 | -131 | -103 | ||
| Chi Cubs | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 101 | 163 | ||
| Cincinnati | -1.3 | -0.8 | 3.7 | -111 | -173 | ||
| Atlanta | 0.6 | -1.2 | 5.5 | -191 | -153 | ||
| NY Mets | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 181 | 143 | ||
| Oakland | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 126 | -119 | ||
| Houston | -0.2 | -0.5 | 5.0 | -136 | 109 | ||
| Minnesota | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 141 | 152 | ||
| Kansas City | 0.3 | -2.0 | 5.5 | -151 | -162 | ||
| Cleveland | -0.5 | -0.7 | 3.0 | 101 | 138 | ||
| Chi WhSox | -0.2 | -0.6 | 3.2 | -111 | -148 | ||
| LA Dodgers | 0.2 | -0.7 | 3.6 | -135 | -110 | ||
| Arizona | -0.6 | -0.7 | 2.8 | 125 | 100 | ||
| Miami | 0.4 | -0.2 | 3.0 | 121 | 161 | ||
| LA Angels | -0.1 | -1.5 | 3.8 | -131 | -171 | ||
| Texas | -0.1 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 167 | 185 | ||
| Seattle | 0.2 | -1.1 | 5.1 | -177 | -200 | ||
| Milwaukee | 1.7 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 99 | 110 | ||
| San Diego | -0.6 | -1.7 | 4.3 | -109 | -120 | ||
| Colorado | 2.0 | -0.3 | 5.3 | -117 | 195 | ||
| San Francisco | 0.9 | -0.8 | 4.7 | 107 | -215 | ||
Today's selections
Washington -111
NY Yankees -107
Chi Cubs +163
Oakland -119
Cleveland +138
Two of these games have started due to my tardiness. Washington is 0-0 and NY Yankees are 1-0 as of post time.
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