MLB TARP Analysis - 2014   (TARP = Team Adjusted Run Production)


For some reason, probably due to fussing with the formatting of the table, I forgot to post the actual plays yesterday which did well but I won't count them in the displayed record out of fairness.


Yesterday: 4-2 +2.27 (not posted, not counted)


YTD:  -0.22 units (@ 1 unit each)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

			OFF	DEF	RUNS	rLINE	aLINE
NY Mets			-0.9	-2.0	3.0	-136	150
Washington			0.1	-0.3	2.3	126	-160
San Francisco			0.1	-0.1	4.1	117	120
Milwaukee			0.9	-0.2	5.0	-127	-130
Chi Cubs			0.6	-2.7	5.8	-255	111
Colorado			0.9	1.1	2.3	245	-121
Detroit			-0.4	-0.9	2.2	154	105
NY Yankees			0.3	-1.6	3.5	-164	-115
Miami			-0.5	0.0	3.4	134	126
Pittsburgh			0.5	-0.3	4.7	-144	-136
Baltimore			0.0	0.9	3.4	176	107
Toronto			1.1	-0.7	6.2	-186	-117
Minnesota			1.5	-0.3	3.9	-114	245
Oakland			-0.3	-1.7	3.6	104	-265
Chi WhSox			1.2	0.5	5.1	-120	172
Seattle			-0.3	-0.3	4.4	110	-182
Houston			-0.5	0.0	3.1	131	-109
Philadelphia			0.0	-0.6	4.2	-141	-101
Cleveland			0.9	0.0	3.9	-114	107
Cincinnati			-0.6	-1.2	3.6	104	-117
Boston			-0.1	1.2	2.9	185	154
St. Louis			0.1	-1.2	5.5	-195	-164
Kansas City			0.3	0.3	4.7	-108	-120
Arizona			0.1	0.2	4.5	-102	110
LA Dodgers			0.1	-1.0	6.3	-197	-102
LA Angels			0.1	2.0	3.3	187	-108

Today's selections

Miami +126

Strictly a value play based on my other statistical formulas.


Baltimore +107

Value play. See Miami.


Boston +154

Third value play. Three dogs. One wins, I don't get hurt too bad. Two win, I make a nice profit on the set. These all have strong, qualifying statistical value on the offensive side.


Kansas City -120

This is the strongest of the three. Royals got a little lucky to win last night after pounding the D-backs 12-2 the night before. KC 11-3 run, ARI 1-4 L5. Qualifying plays in Game 3 after winning the first two are 21-10 +12.94 units this season.