Wednesday, August 27, 2014

2014 MLB TARP Analysis  (Team Adjusted Run Production)


Yesterday:  2-3 +0.01

I was just mentioning regression to the mean yesterday regarding underdogs being 2-11 and favorites being 12-4 and wouldn't ya know dogs go 2-0 last night and favorites go 0-3. All in all, made a penny as two nice dog wins lower the average money line to -104.


YTD:  -2.57 units  (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

System production: action on 27% of all games
Games played: 34
ROI: -7.6 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 0.96 units
Average loss: 1.00 units
Average money line: -104
Winning % required to break even: 50.9%
Current YTD winning %: 47.1%

Favorites: 19 games, +3.14 units
Underdogs: 15 games, -5.71 units

Runs scored per game: 4.26
Runs allowed per game: 4.18  (MLB avg is 4.10)
Average OPS per game: .660
OPS allowed per game: .689  (MLB avg is .703)


Today's matchups showing offensive and defensive TARP adjustments, expected runs to be scored, the "real" line based on the data, and the actual line:

N/A


Today's selections

None

Nothing today. In fact, might have to cut baseball short this season as I have more incentive to do well in the upcoming NFL season and need the extra time to do some work in that sport. Plus, going to be in Vegas all week next week. Usually I go all the way to the end with baseball. This TARP baseball system is showing a profit of 23.73 units for the year in 436 games and a 6.1% ROI. I didn't get here to post until recently due to time restraints and only able to show 34 games for -2.57 units. I also do live baseball and soccer wagering during the days so I desperately need to free up some time. Best of luck.

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