NFL
YTD: 13-6 (68%) ATS
Well, not a great card for the second straight week based on my usual handicapping so I'm going solely on feel on every play this week. I'm generally picky with my action and don't mind sitting out a week or two but I see two legitimate letdown situations this week and a solid bounce back situation that I think will be decent plays.
San Diego +3.5
I missed +5 with this earlier in the week but I still think +3.5 is a decent price. It's a real bummer for KC to lose your undefeated record to your division rival PLUS you're getting another crack at them next week. Extremely hard to get up for this game, even another divisional game.
Miami +4.5
The Panthers just won a huge and rare home game on MNF. They now travel on the road on short rest to Miami where the Dolphins could use a win to stay strong in the playoff hunt. As well as Cam Newton is playing, I don't feel he has reached the level yet where he won't take a game off when his head gets too big (as it appears to be at the moment). This is that type of game.
New England +??
I'm going to wait on this line to see what happens. It likely won't hit 3 without some troublesome juice. Since 2003, the Patriots are 29-4 SU following a regular season loss and 24-9 ATS (73%). As a dog in this situation: 7-0 ATS and 1-0 as a HD. Off a Monday nighter same situation? 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS. Add to the fact, the Pats feel they got screwed in that Panthers game last Monday which can only add fuel to the fire. Another possible help, the weather should be in the teens for the 8:30pm ET start. #18 in orange doesn't play his best in really cold temps. According to Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar, Manning is 2-6 in games started in <30 degree temperatures with 8 TD's and 8 INT's for a QB rating of 76.7. Throw in the gimpy ankle as well if you want too.
6.5-pt teaser
Miami +11/Den-Ne Over 47.5
Still pending:
7-pt teaser
New Orleans -2.5 (WON)/Detroit -3
YTD: 13-6 (68%) ATS
Well, not a great card for the second straight week based on my usual handicapping so I'm going solely on feel on every play this week. I'm generally picky with my action and don't mind sitting out a week or two but I see two legitimate letdown situations this week and a solid bounce back situation that I think will be decent plays.
San Diego +3.5
I missed +5 with this earlier in the week but I still think +3.5 is a decent price. It's a real bummer for KC to lose your undefeated record to your division rival PLUS you're getting another crack at them next week. Extremely hard to get up for this game, even another divisional game.
Miami +4.5
The Panthers just won a huge and rare home game on MNF. They now travel on the road on short rest to Miami where the Dolphins could use a win to stay strong in the playoff hunt. As well as Cam Newton is playing, I don't feel he has reached the level yet where he won't take a game off when his head gets too big (as it appears to be at the moment). This is that type of game.
New England +??
I'm going to wait on this line to see what happens. It likely won't hit 3 without some troublesome juice. Since 2003, the Patriots are 29-4 SU following a regular season loss and 24-9 ATS (73%). As a dog in this situation: 7-0 ATS and 1-0 as a HD. Off a Monday nighter same situation? 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS. Add to the fact, the Pats feel they got screwed in that Panthers game last Monday which can only add fuel to the fire. Another possible help, the weather should be in the teens for the 8:30pm ET start. #18 in orange doesn't play his best in really cold temps. According to Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar, Manning is 2-6 in games started in <30 degree temperatures with 8 TD's and 8 INT's for a QB rating of 76.7. Throw in the gimpy ankle as well if you want too.
6.5-pt teaser
Miami +11/Den-Ne Over 47.5
Still pending:
7-pt teaser
New Orleans -2.5 (WON)/Detroit -3
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