NHL

Yesterday: 2-2-1 +0.05

Busiest night of the young season so far. Had a nice come-from-behind win with LA that kind of saved me from a losing night but lost a win with Chicago in a shootout because of the -1 puck line wager designed to reduce the juice. I've been tracking the differences of the -1.5 PL, the -1 PL and playing everything straight ML for the past two seasons just to get a firmer idea on it. So far, the straight ML has been the most beneficial but it just seems irresponsible to lay -182 like Chicago was last night UNLESS it has all the indicators working for it. This play did not.

This is what I've tracked on that subject to this point. These are the differences of actual wagers of mine on big faves reduced to the -1 PL the last two seasons (including last night):

ML: 43-13 +18.29 units
-1.5 PL: 23-33 +4.93
-1.0 PL: 23-13-20 +8.49
So, the -1 PL has cost me 10 units dating back to last year but I'm gonna keep with it for now.


YTD:  9-6-1 +3.17 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: +16.5%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.18 units
Breakeven price: -107
Breakeven winning %: 51.7%
Current YTD winning %: 60.0%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.6
Goals allowed per game: 2.9
Shots on goal per game: 31.3
Shots allowed per game: 25.8

Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Goals (+0.7) and shots (+5.5) averages look good so far.

Luck Factor

Regulation results: 7-2 +6.20
Overtime results: 2-4 -3.03 (0-2 ot/2-2 so)

Comments: When a game goes to overtime it's a 50/50 coin flip, especially in a shootout, so we're still a little on the short end there.

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 4
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 2

Comments: A little unlucky here as well at -2. I've had 16 wagers involving 17 teams (1 two-team parlay). 13 of those 17 teams outshot their opponent (76%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. It obviously doesn't always translate to a win but those are nice early numbers and should lead to success if sustained anywhere close to that level.


Tonight's matchups. Eight statistical formulas factoring in strength of schedule and a final overall number in blue at the end:

Los Angeles	0.1	0.3	(1.2)	1.0	6.1	4.4	(1.5)	(0.5)	7.9
New Jersey	0.5	0.6	0.6	1.2	2.3	5.9	1.2	0.5	14.3
Toronto	0.2	0.5	(0.1)	(0.9)	####	(8.0)	3.1	3.1	-0.4
Buffalo	(1.3)	(0.8)	(0.9)	0.7	####	(6.6)	(1.3)	(0.6)	-11.6
Anaheim	0.3	(0.1)	0.7	0.9	1.4	2.3	0.3	(1.1)	1.8
Carolina	(0.4)	0.2	3.3	(0.7)	(0.3)	(0.4)	(1.3)	0.9	1.6
Nashville	(0.8)	(0.4)	(0.9)	(1.0)	(0.8)	(0.4)	(2.7)	(1.2)	-8.5
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.2	(3.1)	(0.7)	4.6	3.0	(1.1)	(0.1)	2.2
Montreal	(0.0)	0.5	1.0	2.4	(1.5)	(1.1)	0.3	2.0	13.8
Columbus	(0.3)	(0.2)	1.3	2.3	(0.2)	(0.6)	(0.8)	(0.6)	2.9
Washington	0.6	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.8)	(5.1)	(5.3)	3.2	1.1	-5.5
Detroit	(0.3)	(0.0)	0.5	(0.4)	0.3	1.4	(1.1)	(0.5)	-1.0
Boston	0.9	0.7	(1.5)	(2.0)	(2.8)	(0.6)	4.0	2.4	3.9
Ottawa	(0.0)	(0.3)	0.2	(0.1)	(3.0)	(4.3)	0.7	0.0	-7.0
Florida	(0.6)	(0.1)	0.8	0.5	(0.9)	0.6	(1.8)	(0.4)	0.6
Minnesota	0.6	0.8	1.6	1.4	1.0	3.4	2.2	1.8	16.6
Philadelphia	(0.1)	0.2	(1.1)	(0.9)	(0.4)	0.7	(0.4)	0.6	1.4
Winnipeg	(0.3)	0.0	1.6	1.2	2.3	(1.4)	(1.4)	0.5	3.3
San Jose	0.1	0.1	1.1	0.4	5.1	2.2	(1.0)	(0.4)	3.1
Edmonton	(1.1)	(0.6)	(2.1)	(1.9)	(4.7)	(1.3)	(2.3)	(1.5)	-14.0

Tonight's play

Detroit -140

Had a few more near plays but there was something I didn't like about all of them so just going with one. Detroit has lost four straight but the last three were in overtime, all on home ice, where they outshot their opponents a combined 99-83.