NHL

Yesterday: 1-1 -0.36

Lost the big home favorite St. Louis despite outshooting Phoenix 39-19. Goalie Mike Smith stole that one from us. Underdog Philly (at +130) won easily 5-0.


YTD:  6-4 +2.12 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: +15.7%
Average win: 1.14 units
Average loss: 1.26 units
Breakeven price: -111
Breakeven winning %: 52.5%
Current YTD winning %: 60.0%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.6
Goals allowed per game: 2.5
Shots on goal per game: 30.9
Shots allowed per game: 25.9

Comments: Goals and shots averages look good so far

Regulation results: 5-0 +6.15
Overtime results: 1-4 -4.03 (0-2 ot/ 1-2 so)

Comments: A little unlucky so far on overtime games. Hopefully that will even out over the long run.

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 3
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 1

Comments: Again, a little unlucky here as well. I've had 10 wagers involving 11 teams (1 parlay). 9 of those 11 teams outshot their opponent, which is exactly what I'm looking for. It obviously doesn't always translate to a win but 9 of 11 are very nice early numbers and should lead to success.


Here are tonight's matchups. I've changed this to show eight different stat evaluations factoring strength of schedule and a final weighted overall number in blue at the end.

Toronto	0.1	0.1	0.2	(0.6)	(11.6)	(7.9)	3.5	2.2	-3.0
Minnesota	0.5	0.6	1.6	1.5	1.9	3.8	1.2	1.0	14.5
Philadelphia	(0.4)	0.0	(1.2)	(0.9)	0.3	0.8	(1.5)	(0.1)	-1.6
Pittsburgh	0.1	0.2	(3.0)	(0.2)	4.0	3.2	(0.9)	(0.1)	4.3
Dallas	(0.2)	(0.2)	(2.8)	(1.3)	(0.1)	(1.6)	(0.5)	(0.2)	-7.1
Edmonton	(1.2)	(0.8)	(1.9)	(2.0)	(5.3)	(2.6)	(2.5)	(1.8)	-18.3

Tonight's plays

Minnesota -149

Backstrom making his first start in net since Oct. 28th. Wild with strong statistical indicators plus 7-2 in their L9.