NHL

Sunday: 0-1 -1.45

Vancouver fell short despite outshooting Dallas 43-23. I've had two games so far where my team has outshot the opponent by 20 and I've lost them both. The Canucks also had a tying goal waved off for "incidental contact". According to the AP in British Columbia:

Television replays appeared to show no contact between the two players, which left both the crowd at Rogers Arena and Canucks coach John Tortorella incensed.
"It's a bad call. It's a made-up call," Henrik Sedin said. "If it's a 50-50 call, then I buy it. If it's a 40-60, I buy it. Even a 20-80 (call) ... tough to take."
Tortorella said he never got an explanation, but added that the NHL needs to change how it reviews goals. "If you don't see it, don't call it. You have to be sure on that play and I just don't think they were sure. It was the wrong call."
Lehtonen, who was brilliant in a 42-save performance against the Canucks, was surprised the goal was waved off.
"It happens so fast," he said. "I wish they would maybe use some video replay or something just to make (the calls) right."

All I know is, there's so many elements to sports that make it difficult to predict and which keep the winning percentages down low enough to where, if you don't do a lot of work, you'll get eaten alive by the house edge. Bad calls by the referees, strange bounce of the ball/puck, teams just not showing up that day, etc., are all things that cater to the oddsmakers and prevent any of us from winning at a high rate. That's why the only way to win in sportsbetting over the long haul is to work extremely hard, be disciplined, earn that slight edge in your favor, and grind it out day after day. Volume overcomes random "luck". And for every bad beat on the losing end, someone had good fortune on the other side.

I just hope for 50/50 "luck". I don't ask for or need anything I don't deserve. I work hard to try to gain an edge, so if the rest balances out I'm happy. Anyway...enough philosophizing. On to another day. Despite the bad call last night, and the 2-5 record in OT coin flips, I still have some pocket change of profit left. As long as the handicapping stats below are showing positive numbers, things will be fine.


YTD:  9-8-1 +0.32 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: +1.6%
Average win: 1.14 units
Average loss: 1.24 units
Breakeven price: -109
Breakeven winning %: 52.1%
Current YTD winning %: 52.9%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.4
Goals allowed per game: 2.9
Shots on goal per game: 32.2
Shots allowed per game: 26.1
Shooting percentage for: 10.6%
Shooting percentage against: 11.3%
Regulation results: 7-3 +4.75
Overtime results: 2-5 -4.43 (0-2 ot/2-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 6
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 2

Comments: This is a good way to see how well the teams that your work puts you on are actually performing rather than being fooled by random results influenced by luck. Goals (+0.5) and shots (+6.1) averages look good so far. The opponents are shooting 0.7% higher (Vancouver's 1-for-43 didn't help last game). I've had 18 wagers involving 19 teams (1 two-team parlay). 15 of those 19 teams outshot their opponent (79%), which is exactly what I'm looking for. In that respect, it's not surprising that I have a lot of losses when outshooting my opponent because there's way more opportunities for that to happen.


Tonight's matchups. Eight statistical formulas factoring in strength of schedule and a final overall number in blue at the end:

NY Islanders	0.6	0.8	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.6	2.3	2.4	-14.9
Toronto	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.8	11.3	7.7	2.3	3.1	0.6
St. Louis	0.7	0.2	1.0	0.9	7.4	6.3	0.1	1.4	7.4
Buffalo	1.0	0.8	1.2	0.4	11.8	7.2	0.3	0.5	-13.0
Ottawa	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.5	2.4	3.6	0.5	0.4	-9.3
Philadelphia	0.1	0.3	1.3	1.0	1.3	0.6	0.1	1.0	1.0
Nashville	0.7	0.6	1.3	0.9	3.9	1.9	1.0	1.4	-12.1
Detroit	0.3	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.2	1.8	1.2	1.0	-3.7
Minnesota	0.8	0.7	2.9	1.9	0.2	3.5	3.1	1.7	18.0
Montreal	0.4	0.9	0.9	2.3	0.4	0.5	1.1	2.7	19.5
Boston	0.3	0.4	0.9	2.1	3.0	1.7	1.9	1.8	-0.3
NY Rangers	0.6	0.6	2.7	1.5	5.4	0.3	0.8	2.1	13.6
Chicago	0.8	0.7	1.9	0.4	6.1	0.8	0.1	2.8	-9.8
Colorado	0.0	0.2	1.5	1.3	2.2	1.8	0.7	0.2	-7.4
Columbus	0.0	0.2	2.0	2.5	1.4	0.1	0.6	0.6	4.3
Edmonton	1.3	0.6	1.8	1.8	4.1	1.4	3.4	1.6	-14.5
Florida	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.2	1.3	2.3	2.0	1.0	0.2
Vancouver	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	7.0	3.5	0.7	0.4	7.6
Tampa Bay	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.3	1.4	0.9	2.3	1.0	2.2
Los Angeles	0.2	0.5	1.7	0.5	5.8	4.2	0.7	0.6	10.5

Tonight's play

NY Islanders +125
Detroit -1 +104
NY Rangers -120
Chicago -125
Los Angeles -151