NHL

Monday: 3-4-1 -1.93

Despite the recent struggles, everything looks pretty good in terms of the quality of the plays. I'm just not catching any breaks. That will change.


YTD:  18-20-2 -4.81 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -10.6%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.23 units
Breakeven price: -112
Breakeven winning %: 52.8%
Current YTD winning %: 47.4%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.9
Goals allowed per game: 2.8
Shots on goal per game: 31.9
Shots allowed per game: 26.4

Shooting percentage for: 9.1%
Shooting percentage against: 10.4%

Overtime results: 5-7 -3.93 (0-3 ot/5-4 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 14
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 5

Comments: I've had 40 wagers involving 41 teams (1 two-team parlay). 32 of those 41 teams had as many or more shots than their opponent (78%) and has led to a +5.5 SOG per game advantage. Although shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather be on the team with more. My shooting percentage differential is killing me, however, although I've gotten it down to -1.3%. OT games, which I expect to be 50/50, have not gone well at 5-7.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Vancouver	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	9.6	4.6	1.7	0.1	7.2
Ottawa	0.2	0.5	0.1	1.1	2.4	4.0	0.1	0.4	-9.2
Edmonton	0.8	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.1	1.2	2.8	1.7	-5.2
Nashville	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	4.4	1.3	1.4	0.1	-1.9

Tonight's play

Vancouver -130

Just by blindly playing the team with the better number in blue above in the matchups would have yielded a 94-78 +0.00 record in all games with no restrictions since Nov 2nd (when my plays started). Those with wider margins of 7.12+ for road teams (up to -180) and 10.53+ for home teams (up to -260) have gone 47-25 +20.66. I'm not suggesting playing these but just something to watch.