NHL 11/12

11/12 Matchups

Tonight's NHL matchups are below. From left to right I have the teams and latest line according to 5dimes. The L5 and L10 are the number of wins for each team in that span. The next four columns show different stat calculations displayed with the margin for the team with the better numbers. The "W" or "L" signals that team's result in their last game played. Then two more stat margins followed by the main number that I use in red at the end. The red "22" next to Tampa Bay means they are on back to back nights.

I mostly weigh the final column in red against what the money line is to qualify as a worthwhile play. I cap my favorite prices at -128 for road teams and -185 for home teams. I may play the -1 puck line for the higher home favorites at times. My overall price on all money lines played last year was -125 at these limits if I strictly played the money lines straight. Adding in the occasional puck lines instead dropped the average price to -106.

YTD:  5-3 +2.48 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: +24.6%
Average win: 1.10 units
Average loss: 1.12 units
Breakeven price: -102
Winning % to break even: 50.4%
Current YTD winning %: 62.5%


Tonight's plays

Philadelphia +127 (1 unit to win 1.27)

As you can see, the Flyers main red number at the end shows a solid advantage at 4.48, which tells me they have been playing better than Ottawa and as a bonus we get them at an underdog price.


St. Louis -166 (1.66 units to win 1)

A very strong 8.27 advantage. A little concerned that Phoenix is 8-2 in their L10 but St. Louis is 7-3.


team                    line            L5   L10

Colorado			-145		4	8	0.37				0.71	W	0.44
Carolina			135		2	4		0.5	1.07			L		0.39	2.31
Los Angeles			-185		3	7	1.01	2.14	13.4			W	1.03	1.79	11.18
Buffalo			170		1	2					1.9	L
Columbus			135		1	4		4.04	5.73			W		2.64	4.42
Washington			-145		3	6	0.06				2.17	L	0.24
Nashville			110		2	5	0.23		0.55		0.48	L	0.61	0.01	0.66
NY Islanders			-120		1	3		0.5				L
New Jersey			160		2	5	0.02		6.09			W	0.1	1.12	4.79
NY Rangers			-170		4	7		0.13			0.64	W
Tampa Bay			169	22	4	7						L
Montreal			-182		1	4	0.74	2.46	3.56		0.39	W	0.2	2.46	0.57
Anaheim			-145		5	8	0.75	1.41			3.76	W	0.34	0.5	1.03
Florida			135		0	1			0.33			L
Winnipeg			156		3	4	0.27	2.11			3.35	W		2.06
Detroit			-166		2	3			3.72			L	0.08		1.21
Philadelphia			127		2	4	0.03		3.84			W			4.48
Ottawa			-137		3	4		0.44			0.12	W	0.1	0.35
Phoenix			156		4	8					0.22	W		0.61
St. Louis			-166		4	7	0.68	0.26	9.43			W	0.33		8.27
San Jose			-166		0	4	0.52	0.62	0.32		1.1	L	0.57	1.08	0.38
Calgary			156		1	3						L