NHL

Yesterday: 1-0 +1.05

Second straight day of one game, one winner. Busy night tonight will change things.


YTD:  12-12-1 -0.98 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -3.5%
Average win: 1.12 units
Average loss: 1.20 units
Breakeven price: -107
Breakeven winning %: 51.8%
Current YTD winning %: 50.0%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.1
Goals allowed per game: 2.9
Shots on goal per game: 32.5
Shots allowed per game: 25.7

Shooting percentage for: 9.5%
Shooting percentage against: 11.4%

Overtime results: 3-5 -3.33 (0-2 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 10
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 3

Comments: The shots on goal results combined with shooting percentage are a good indicator of the health of a team and how well they are playing. While shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather have more than the opponent for obvious reasons. My SOG advantage of +6.8 per game is very good but I've been hurt by giving up an 11.4% shooting percentage (-1.9% worse than my SP); which means my goalies only have an .886 save percentage which has diminished my shot advantage. If my OT games were 50/50 and even on the money line, I would still have +2.35 units of profit despite getting outshot by almost a full 2%. So far, I've had 25 wagers involving 26 teams (1 two-team parlay). 21 of those 26 teams outshot their opponent (81%), which is all I can ask for.


Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Carolina	0.7	0.1	3.1	1.0	3.3	1.6	1.6	0.7	-2.3
Boston	0.3	0.6	1.1	2.0	2.1	0.8	1.5	2.1	0.9
Minnesota	0.5	0.2	1.2	0.8	2.1	1.9	2.6	0.1	4.5
Winnipeg	0.1	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.4	0.9	0.8	0.6	2.9
Ottawa	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.1	1.9	4.2	1.8	1.6	-11.0
Detroit	0.2	0.2	0.1	1.0	1.2	1.0	1.0	0.9	-3.2
NY Islanders	0.9	0.9	0.1	1.5	3.0	0.6	3.9	3.3	-11.7
Philadelphia	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.8	1.2	0.6	1.7	2.0
Washington	0.6	0.1	0.7	0.8	6.3	5.5	3.7	1.8	-3.7
Toronto	0.2	0.2	1.7	1.5	11.9	8.4	2.2	2.6	-6.6
Pittsburgh	0.7	0.5	1.5	0.0	4.2	3.3	1.5	1.0	7.2
Montreal	0.5	0.7	0.4	2.0	0.9	1.3	1.4	2.2	12.0
Anaheim	0.2	0.1	0.7	2.0	1.5	2.4	0.0	1.1	4.4
Phoenix	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.4	3.9	5.0	2.7	0.1	-6.1
NY Rangers	0.8	0.6	2.7	1.9	5.3	0.3	1.3	2.3	10.1
Nashville	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.5	2.6	0.9	0.5	1.6	-7.1
Dallas	0.2	0.3	2.1	0.8	1.0	0.3	0.4	0.9	1.5
St. Louis	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.1	5.3	4.8	0.2	0.6	5.5
Chicago	0.7	0.4	0.5	0.6	5.5	1.6	0.3	1.9	-4.2
Vancouver	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	6.7	4.0	0.1	0.6	7.7
Colorado	0.3	0.1	0.6	1.2	2.0	2.3	1.6	0.3	-4.7
Los Angeles	0.6	0.7	1.1	0.9	8.3	5.8	0.1	1.1	12.9
New Jersey	1.0	1.0	0.4	1.6	0.5	5.2	3.9	2.2	16.3
San Jose	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	4.4	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.2

Tonight's plays:

Detroit -132
Ottawa has almost been playing as bad as Detroit but the Wings finally showed a little life in the last game, scoring 17 seconds in and snapping their 7-game losing streak. Ottawa has lost three straight by a combined 12-6.

NY Rangers -110
They have the edge in all eight of my statistical matchups above and a significant edge in three of them although Nashville has started playing well recently. Rangers have played seven straight one-goal games (not including empty netters).

Los Angeles -160
This one is all over the radar with four strong stat indicators listed above (pos vs neg and by a wide enough amount) and four other statistical indicators from another part of my capping. The situationals look good as well.

These are the only three I'm playing because I want to be cautious now that I have added some reinforcements recently, but these were close and I want to keep a close eye on these: Philadelphia, St. Louis, Vancouver, New Jersey