NHL

Monday: 2-2 +0.02

Thanksgiving Eve and the most action of the season.


YTD:  15-16-1 -2.88 units (@ 1 unit each)

R.O.I.: -7.8%
Average win: 1.12 units
Average loss: 1.23 units
Breakeven price: -110
Breakeven winning %: 52.3%
Current YTD winning %: 48.4%


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 2.8
Goals allowed per game: 2.7
Shots on goal per game: 31.8
Shots allowed per game: 25.7

Shooting percentage for: 8.9%
Shooting percentage against: 10.6%

Overtime results: 3-6 -4.93 (0-3 ot/3-3 so)

Losses where my team outshot opponent: 13
Wins where my team got outshot by opponent: 4

Comments: I've had 32 wagers involving 33 teams (1 two-team parlay). 26 of those 33 teams outshot their opponent (79%). While shots don't directly translate to wins, I'd rather have more than the opponent for obvious reasons. My SOG advantage of +6.1 per game is very good but my shooting percentage differential is killing me, although I've gotten it down to -1.7%. OT games, which I expect to be 50/50, have not gone well at 3-6.

Tonight's matchups. Eight different formula ratings (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end. This is for informational purposes and not my sole means of capping:

Winnipeg	0.1	0.1	0.7	1.6	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.7	3.5
NY Islanders	0.9	1.0	0.9	1.7	3.1	0.2	4.0	3.4	-13.4
Ottawa	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	4.2	5.2	0.3	0.4	-9.8
Washington	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.5	4.0	4.6	3.1	1.9	-1.8
Nashville	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	4.0	1.1	0.4	1.0	-4.9
Columbus	0.7	0.5	2.3	2.2	4.8	1.1	0.8	2.0	0.3
Montreal	0.4	0.5	0.1	2.1	1.0	0.7	1.2	1.6	9.8
Buffalo	1.3	0.8	0.8	0.1	9.6	6.3	1.7	0.9	-11.4
Carolina	0.3	0.2	4.5	0.2	4.0	2.2	0.3	1.3	0.4
New Jersey	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.5	1.1	4.8	2.7	2.2	15.8
Toronto	0.7	0.0	0.9	1.1	12.5	7.7	0.6	1.9	-7.1
Pittsburgh	0.5	0.3	2.4	0.4	4.0	2.8	0.5	0.1	3.4
NY Rangers	0.5	0.5	2.5	1.9	5.4	0.2	0.5	1.8	9.2
Florida	0.3	0.2	1.8	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.6	0.8	-3.1
Philadelphia	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.6	1.5	0.1	1.3	2.4
Tampa Bay	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	1.1	1.3	2.1	1.5	2.1
Boston	0.5	0.5	0.1	1.0	1.9	1.2	2.2	2.0	2.3
Detroit	0.5	0.3	0.2	1.3	1.1	1.2	1.9	1.5	-5.1
Phoenix	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.4	2.7	4.4	1.7	0.7	-4.9
Minnesota	0.5	0.3	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.1	2.4	0.5	5.3
St. Louis	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.0	4.9	5.1	1.6	0.2	6.7
Colorado	0.5	0.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.9	1.6	0.7	-1.7
Chicago	0.7	0.2	0.2	1.3	6.8	2.8	0.0	1.5	-2.9
Calgary	1.1	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.5	1.2	3.7	3.3	-7.0
Los Angeles	0.7	0.7	1.3	0.8	4.3	5.0	1.7	1.3	12.0
San Jose	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.2	3.7	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.3

Tonight's plays

Washington -135
Montreal -1 +102
New Jersey -135
Pittsburgh -1 -124
NY Rangers -135
Minnesota -125
St. Louis -120
Los Angeles +145