NHL

Friday: +1.00

Even though I won my only game on Friday, I decided to take a few days off from wagering hockey because things haven't been going well for the past couple weeks. It's all part of the normal swings that come with handicapping sports. There's games just about every day so I'm in no hurry to force wagers. I still did the work, however, to add the data to the spreadsheet and as it turns out I skipped three more losing days so it was a good decision. Not much different from winning. Interestingly, the losses continue to be of the 1-goal variety as I would have lost 2-1 with Florida and 4-3 in a shootout with the Rangers last night. On Sunday, I would have lost a -1.5 PL with Pittsburgh (who won the game) and two more losses by a total of three goals. Incredible. Most of the blowouts are wins, hence my average margin of victory of +0.50 goals per game and basically nothing yet to show for it. That can't continue too much longer I wouldn't think. Eventually I have to start winning these close ones.


YTD:  +0.35 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: +0.3 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.08 units
Average loss: 1.15 units
Average money line: -107
Winning % required to break even: 51.7%
Current YTD winning %: 51.9%

Favorites: 34-32 -5.99  (PL favs = 13-4 +8.53)
Underdogs: 20-16 +8.34  (PL dogs = 6-4 +2.80)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 66-48


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.02  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.52
Shots on goal per game: 31.6  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.3

Shooting percentage for: 9.6%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 16-14 (7-6 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different head-to-head statistical evaluations (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Carolina	0.5	0.4	0.3	4.2	1.4	3.4	1.2	0.3	-14.5
Buffalo	0.4	0.7	2.1	2.7	5.0	2.4	0.4	2.7	10.5
NY Islanders	0.6	0.0	1.8	0.2	0.7	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.3
Toronto	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.4	4.9	3.8	0.2	0.3	-5.3
Philadelphia	0.1	0.4	2.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	0.7	1.8	-3.9
New Jersey	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.8	0.7	4.2	1.1	0.1	7.8
Tampa Bay	0.4	0.5	3.2	1.9	5.1	2.0	0.0	1.3	2.5
Winnipeg	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.2	1.0	0.3	1.9	2.8	-8.5
San Jose	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.6	4.8	0.1	0.1	0.8	1.0
Nashville	0.6	0.4	1.9	1.4	3.3	1.6	3.0	2.0	-6.6
Calgary	0.4	0.5	0.4	1.0	5.0	1.5	0.4	1.2	7.6
Phoenix	0.1	0.3	0.8	2.0	1.7	0.4	0.7	1.2	7.2
St. Louis	1.5	0.4	1.8	0.8	0.8	1.6	5.5	0.9	6.7
Edmonton	0.9	0.5	1.9	2.2	8.0	3.4	0.4	0.4	-11.1
Pittsburgh	0.6	0.1	1.3	0.2	2.7	1.3	2.9	0.1	-1.1
Vancouver	0.5	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.7	0.3	1.7	2.7	7.6
Boston	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.5	2.8	1.4	0.6	-1.2
Anaheim	1.2	0.3	0.9	2.0	8.2	5.2	1.2	0.5	10.2
Minnesota	0.4	0.0	0.7	1.0	2.9	0.2	0.5	0.0	1.9
Los Angeles	0.1	0.8	1.2	2.1	0.5	0.5	0.4	2.8	11.8

Tonight's plays

Tampa Bay +100
San Jose -130