NHL

Yesterday: -0.30

Split my two games last night. I've compared my handicapping stats below to league averages. My teams have scored 3.02 goals per game, better than the league average of 2.69 by 12.3%, and have allowed 2.52, 6.3% better than average. Only five of the 30 NHL teams have scored more than 3.02 goals/game. My average margin of victory is +0.50 goals per game collectively, which would rank as the NHL's 7th best team. My shots on goal per game are at 31.6 which is 5.3% better than the league average of 30.0 and I've allowed 27.2 which is 9.3% better than average.

Factoring in the juice at my average price of -107, I need to win 51.8% of my wagers to break even, which is right where it's at. Let's figure an average NHL team wins 50% of the time, and both scores and allows the league average of 2.69 goals per game. My goals for and against are 9.3% better than league average overall, which would equally mean my capping should effectively win 59.3% of the games I've played, yet my SU winning percentage is only 57.7%. A swing of 2 games.




YTD:  +0.05 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: +0.0 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.08 units
Average loss: 1.16 units
Average money line: -107
Winning % required to break even: 51.8%
Current YTD winning %: 51.8%

Favorites: 34-33 -7.29  (PL favs = 13-4 +8.53)
Underdogs: 20-16 +8.34  (PL dogs = 6-4 +2.80)
Even money: 3-4 -1.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 67-49


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.02  (+0.33 better than NHL avg of 2.69)
Goals allowed per game: 2.52  (+0.17 better than NHL avg of 2.69)
Shots on goal per game: 31.6  (+1.6 better than NHL avg of 30.0)
Shots allowed per game: 27.2  (+2.8 better than NHL avg of 30.0)

Shooting percentage for: 9.6%
Shooting percentage against: 9.3%

Overtime results: 16-14 (7-6 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different head-to-head statistical evaluations (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Montreal	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.9	2.9	1.9	0.0	0.3	5.4
Philadelphia	0.3	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.8	0.0	1.3	0.1	-0.4
NY Rangers	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	4.8	0.8	0.8	0.2	1.8
Chicago	1.4	0.2	1.7	0.9	4.9	3.1	2.9	0.2	5.8
Ottawa	0.1	0.3	0.8	2.1	0.8	3.9	0.1	0.2	-9.4
Colorado	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.6	4.2	2.6	0.8	0.4	-5.8

Tonight's plays

Chicago -0.5 -132 (reg)
Ottawa +117