NHL

Yesterday: -1.65

Experiencing a downswing, having lost in five of the last six days for -6.11 units. I'm 6-12 during this stretch yet I've outscored my eighteen opponents 51-50 and outshot them 614-536 somehow despite only winning a third of the games, so the handicapping itself continues to be stronger than the results which is all that really matters to me. Assessing your handicapping directly by your results is misleading in the short term. As has been the case most of the year so far, there's no doubt I'm experiencing some negative variance...mainly with how to wager the larger favorites.


YTD:  -0.65 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: -0.5 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.08 units
Average loss: 1.15 units
Average money line: -107
Winning % required to break even: 51.7%
Current YTD winning %: 51.4%

Favorites: 33-32 -6.99  (PL favs = 12-4 +7.53)
Underdogs: 20-16 +8.34  (PL dogs = 6-4 +2.80)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 65-48


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.00  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.52
Shots on goal per game: 31.5  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.4

Shooting percentage for: 9.5%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 16-14 (7-6 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different head-to-head statistical evaluations (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Chicago	1.9	0.3	1.7	1.3	4.7	2.8	4.6	0.2	7.2
New Jersey	0.4	0.3	0.1	1.4	0.4	4.0	1.6	0.4	7.8
NY Rangers	0.6	0.3	0.8	0.6	2.5	1.5	3.0	1.5	-0.7
Pittsburgh	0.3	0.1	1.0	0.0	2.7	0.6	1.9	0.6	0.9
Tampa Bay	0.2	0.4	1.7	1.1	5.7	1.1	0.8	1.0	2.3
Calgary	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.7	3.8	1.3	1.3	1.3	7.1
Edmonton	0.9	0.5	1.9	2.1	6.1	3.0	1.2	0.7	-10.6
Anaheim	1.3	0.5	1.3	1.0	5.2	4.5	2.8	0.5	10.1

Tonight's play

Anaheim -0.5 -167 (reg)