NHL

Saturday: 3-3 -0.58

This has been a stubborn NHL season to this point. I've mentioned several "bad beats" in my posts this year like having a lot of teams that dominate their opponent and still lose the game or bad beats that I've inflicted on myself with puck line wagering that has cost me -7.30 units versus straight wagering so far and also like last Tuesday when I erroneously played two games I shouldn't have and cost myself 2 more units.

Well last Saturday night in the LA game was a legitimate BAD beat in the truest sense. LA led 2-1 in the final minute over Detroit. With :26 left in regulation, a Detroit shot deflected into the netting behind the goalie (out of play) then bounced back, hit the back of the LA goalie and redirected into the net. None of the refs saw it hit the netting and the goal was allowed to stand, tying the game 2-2 even though the radio announcers for both teams saw it and were amazed the goal was allowed. Then, of course, Detroit goes on to win in the shootout and I'm left with a negative swing of -2.30 units.

"That's embarrassing for the league," Kings coach Darryl Sutter said. "It doesn't matter if we would've scored it or they scored it."

Detroit's Kronwall, who got credit for the goal, seemed to agree.

"It shouldn't have counted," he said. "But at this stage of the game where we're at in the standings, we'll take it."

The Kings, especially defenseman Drew Doughty, tried to protest Kronwall's goal, but it wasn't reviewable because none of the officials blew a whistle to stop play when the puck hit the net.

"They just said they didn't see it," Doughty said. "It's unfortunate. We should've got two points."

If that goal is correctly disallowed, I go 5-1 SU Saturday night but I ended up 3-3 -0.58 because of the blown call and also Vancouver, my only regulation wager, won in OT. Tough night.


YTD:  +1.57 units (@ 1 unit each)


Handicapping the handicapping

ROI: +0.9 cents on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.17 units
Average money line: -110
Winning % required to break even: 52.3%
Current YTD winning %: 52.8%

Favorites: 46-45 -10.40  (PL favs = 17-9 +6.05)
Underdogs: 24-19 +9.97  (PL dogs = 7-4 +3.87)
Even money: 6-4 +2.00  (PL even = 4-0 +4.00)

SU record: 87-63
Pythagorean record: 87-63  (based on goal differential below)

Goals scored per game: 3.01  (would be 6th in NHL)
Goals allowed per game: 2.53  (goal diff. would be 7th in NHL)
Shots on goal per game: 31.6
Shots allowed per game: 27.7

Shooting percentage for: 9.5%
Shooting percentage against: 9.1%

Overtime games: 19-18 (10-8 ot/9-10 so)


Tonight's matchups showing how the teams compare in eight statistical evaluations which factor in strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end (red numbers are negative):

Philadelphia	0.1	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6	1.6	-2.2
NY Islanders	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.4	1.1	0.2	-2.4
Los Angeles	0.5	0.4	0.2	2.2	6.0	2.9	2.9	0.6	10.4
Boston	0.6	0.2	1.1	1.1	3.3	0.1	0.9	0.7	4.7
Florida	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.9	3.9	2.4	1.7	0.2	-0.8
Pittsburgh	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.9	2.2	-6.8
St. Louis	0.9	0.3	1.1	0.3	2.1	3.2	2.7	0.4	6.0
Detroit	0.2	0.1	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.9	0.3	1.8
Toronto	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	7.5	5.3	0.1	0.7	-11.1
Phoenix	0.1	0.1	1.4	2.2	0.2	1.2	0.3	0.8	5.4
Dallas	0.5	0.5	0.3	1.9	1.1	0.9	2.1	1.2	-8.9
Nashville	0.2	0.4	2.1	2.4	5.7	4.2	2.8	2.8	-6.8
Calgary	1.9	0.2	0.5	0.4	2.5	1.8	6.4	1.4	-2.1
San Jose	0.7	0.6	2.1	0.4	2.8	1.3	1.6	1.6	5.8

Tonight's plays

Phoenix -0.5 -105 (reg)
San Jose -1.5 +100