NHL

Tuesday: -1.20

Since I replaced my usual -1 puck line wager on larger favorites to a regulation only wager on the 12th of December, I've had four teams win in overtime which would have been a push prior but is now a loss. What's strange is that I have not yet had the situation where this regulation bet helps me and that's when my team wins by 1 in regulation. A more common occurrence but it has yet to happen. The switch so far has cost me a negative swing of 4.99 units compared to if I stayed with the -1. I'm committed to continue with the regulation wagers for the time being though since I expect it to start evening out.


YTD:  +1.00 units (@ 1 unit each)

ROI: 1 cent on every dollar risked
Average win: 1.07 units
Average loss: 1.16 units
Average money line: -108
Winning % required to break even: 52.0%
Current YTD winning %: 52.5%

Favorites: 33-31 -5.89  (PL favs = 12-3 +8.63)
Underdogs: 18-13 +8.89  (PL dogs = 5-4 +1.65)
Even money: 2-4 -2.00  (PL even = 1-0 +1.00)

SU record: 63-44


Handicapping the handicapping

Goals scored per game: 3.02  (NHL avg = 2.64)
Goals allowed per game: 2.50
Shots on goal per game: 31.5  (NHL avg = 29.9)
Shots allowed per game: 27.1

Shooting percentage for: 9.6%
Shooting percentage against: 9.2%

Overtime results: 15-13 (6-5 ot/9-8 so)


Tonight's matchups. 8 different head-to-head statistical evaluations (+/-) factoring strength of schedule and an overall number in blue at the end:

Chicago	2.1	0.5	2.3	1.1	5.1	3.7	5.4	0.4	8.8
NY Islanders	0.3	0.3	0.0	1.2	3.6	1.2	0.4	0.6	-6.0
Nashville	0.6	0.6	1.2	0.8	1.2	0.8	2.5	2.2	-7.0
Boston	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.4	2.4	1.2	0.1	-4.2
Carolina	0.4	0.5	0.2	4.4	3.1	0.5	2.4	1.9	-13.9
Washington	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	1.5	3.4	0.4	0.3	-4.3
Winnipeg	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.8	1.2	1.6	0.1
Ottawa	0.2	0.2	0.8	2.8	0.4	3.5	0.4	0.3	-10.0
Buffalo	0.5	0.4	1.3	2.1	3.0	2.0	0.9	1.8	7.3
Minnesota	1.3	0.3	0.6	1.3	5.8	3.2	2.8	0.1	-1.8
Los Angeles	1.0	1.1	1.6	1.9	2.3	0.6	3.9	3.9	14.7
St. Louis	0.8	0.1	2.2	0.8	0.3	2.8	2.9	0.4	4.5
Montreal	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.4	3.5	2.1	2.0	0.6	2.2
Dallas	0.6	0.1	0.9	1.2	0.2	2.1	2.0	0.8	-3.0
Philadelphia	0.2	0.6	1.4	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.0	2.7	-5.7
Colorado	0.2	0.1	1.2	2.1	2.6	2.0	0.1	0.1	-7.0
Columbus	0.1	0.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	1.5	0.4	0.8	-1.6
Phoenix	0.3	0.1	0.7	0.9	2.8	0.3	1.7	0.3	0.8
Edmonton	0.7	0.3	1.2	1.7	5.4	3.2	0.9	0.2	-8.7
San Jose	0.2	0.1	0.7	0.6	4.1	0.5	1.8	0.3	-2.9

Tonight's play

Chicago -0.5 -110
Carolina +130
Winnipeg +115
Buffalo +165
Philadelphia +115
San Jose -1.5 +115